NFL Week 12 Best Upset Bets: Titans, Panthers Among Underdogs to Watch

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All kickoff times below are ET.

Titans vs. Texans — 1 p.m. (CBS)

With losses in five of their last six games, the 2-8 Titans aren’t exactly peaking as they enter Week 12. This team has played better in recent weeks, though, even if its 27-17 loss to the Chargers in Week 10 and 23-13 loss to the Vikings last Sunday don’t reflect as much.

It all starts with second-year QB Will Levis, who is coming off two of the best games of his season, if not his career. Levis completed less than 55 percent of his passes in last week’s loss to Minnesota, but he still had a solid day (17-for-31 for 295 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception) against a Vikes defense that creates a ton of pressure on quarterbacks.

Levis quietly also played well against the Chargers the previous week, when he completed 18-of-23 passes for 175 yards, 2 TDs and no picks. While Levis is finally playing well enough to keep the Titans in games, the real reason we like Tennessee to keep this game within one score is how the Tennessee D matches up with Houston.

The Texans are 7-4, but outside of last week’s blowout of a Dallas team that is in shambles, C.J. Stroud and Co. have struggled to move the ball in recent weeks due to their inability to keep Stroud upright.

He has been sacked at least four times in three of the last five games. On the season, he’s gone down 35 times, the second-most in the NFL behind Bears rookie Caleb Williams.

Last week’s win over Dallas showed how well the Texans can move the ball when they’re able to establish the running game, but against a Titans D that only allows 4.1 yards per carry, it’s unlikely that Joe Mixon will be able to run wild.

If the Texans have to beat the Titans in third-and-long, underrated pass rushers Arden Key and Harold Landry, as well as stud DT Jeffery Simmons, will have a real chance to make this a hard-fought, low-scoring battle.

The Texans have played in just three games all year that were decided by more than one score, and we expect this one to be tight enough for the Titans to cover.

Best bet: Titans +7.5 (-110 at DraftKings) 1 unit

Chiefs vs. Panthers — 1 p.m. (CBS)

Speaking of teams that have found themselves in close games much more often than not, the Kansas City Chiefs’ nine wins this year include just two by more than seven points.

With the Chiefs coming off a tough road loss to Buffalo, it makes sense that they’re heavily favored to bounce back in a big way against the 3-7 Carolina Panthers.

We like the home team to keep this matchup at least somewhat respectable, though.

Since re-inserting Bryce Young into the lineup, Carolina has looked competent for three straight weeks, and it’s coming off a bye following an overtime win over the Giants in Week 10.

The Panthers would need a minor miracle to give Kansas City its second consecutive loss, but they have been playing better on D the last couple weeks after getting a boost from Jadeveon Clowney, Josey Jewell and D.J. Wonnum up front. All three missed time earlier this year, and Wonnum had a sack and two TFLs in his season debut against New York two weeks ago.

The Panthers will also welcome back veteran WR Adam Thielen — who was Young’s top target in 2023 — for this game. In addition, second-round rookie RB Jonathon Brooks will finally make his NFL debut after a lengthy recovery from a torn ACL that cut short his final season at Texas last fall.

Most bettors are probably taking the Chiefs to cover against a Panthers team that lost a number of uncompetitive games early this season.

Carolina, however, has recently shown enough signs of life — albeit against the lowly Saints and Giants — that we trust it to keep this game close against the reigning champs, who have won only one game this year by more than 10 points.

Best bet: Panthers +11 (-110 at bet365) 1 unit

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