College football conference championship scenarios
November 27, 2024
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This has been one of the most unpredictable and exciting college football seasons in recent memory.
That makes things fun, but it can also make things confusing, especially when you’re trying to figure out whether YOUR TEAM will be playing in its conference championship game.
We’re here to help.
With some help from FOX Sports research, we’ve taken a look at each Power 4 conference and broken down the different scenarios still in play, and what has to happen for each to play out.
Take a look below — and be careful when you get to the Big 12, because it’s … something!
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP SCENARIOS
Big Ten
– Oregon has already clinched a spot in the Big Ten Championship
– Ohio State can clinch the other spot with a win over Michigan (OR losses by both Indiana and Penn State)
– Penn State can make the Big Ten Championship with a win over Maryland AND an Ohio State loss (to Michigan)
– Indiana needs a win over Purdue AND losses by both Ohio State and Penn State to make the Big Ten Championship
SEC
– Georgia has already clinched a spot in the SEC Championship Game
– The winner of the Texas/Texas A&M game will face Georgia in the conference championship
ACC
– SMU has already clinched a spot in the ACC Championship Game
– Miami can clinch the other spot with a win at Syracuse
– Clemson would go to the ACC Championship Game if Miami loses to Syracuse
BIG 12
– There are still nine(!) teams mathematically alive to reach the Big 12 Championship Game
– Four teams are currently tied atop the conference at 6-2 (Arizona State, BYU, Iowa State, and Colorado)
– No Big 12 team controls its own destiny
– Arizona State and Iowa State are in the best positions, but there are still scenarios where each one of those teams can win this week and miss the conference championship
– There are 256 different possible combinations of results that will affect who makes the Big 12 Championship Game
Notable Big 12 Teams in Week 14
– Arizona State: at Arizona
– BYU: vs Houston
– Iowa State: vs Kansas State
– Colorado: vs Oklahoma State
If Arizona State, BYU, Iowa State, and Colorado all win …
– Big 12 Championship would be Arizona State vs Iowa State
If exactly two of the ASU/BYU/ISU/Colorado group win…
– The two winners will meet in the Big 12 Championship Game
If Arizona State, BYU, and Iowa State win — AND Colorado loses…
– Big 12 Championship would be Arizona State vs Iowa State
If Arizona State, BYU and Colorado win — AND Iowa State loses…
– Big 12 Championship would be Arizona State vs BYU
If BYU, Iowa State and Colorado win — AND Arizona State loses…
– Big 12 Championship would be Iowa State vs BYU
If Arizona State, Iowa State and Colorado win — AND BYU loses…
– It could be either Colorado vs. Iowa State OR Colorado vs Arizona State (see below for details)
– If Texas Tech wins (over West Virginia) AND Baylor wins (over Kansas) AND Cincinnati wins (over TCU):
– Big 12 Championship would be Colorado vs Iowa State
– If Texas Tech wins (over West Virginia) and either Baylor or Cincinnati loses:
– Big 12 Championship would be Colorado vs Arizona State
– If Texas Tech loses (to West Virginia), the Big 12 Championship would be Arizona State vs Iowa State
Scenarios Involving Teams That are 5-3 Entering the Week…
– 5-3 teams must win and see at least 3 of the 4 teams that are currently 6-2 lose to have a shot
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