Joel Klatt’s CFP title game prediction: Can Notre Dame make it a low-scoring affair?

Joel Klatt

Lead College Football Analyst

We’ve made it to the national championship game after one of the best seasons of college football that I can recall.

Ohio State and Notre Dame will battle for the title in Atlanta on Monday. I know some of us don’t like the day the game is played on, but we fixed that issue in my Commissioner Klatt story, so let’s just focus on this game and celebrate it for what it is.

Here’s my preview and pick for the national championship.

Setting the stage

The Buckeyes have mostly rolled through the College Football Playoff to this point, making them a strong favorite to win it all. They’re 8.5-point favorites at the time I write this, but I’d almost expect the line to move in their direction.

This is a bad matchup for Notre Dame, whose fans will roll their eyes because I’m the same guy who picked Navy to beat it and later Indiana in the first round of the CFP, but I did pick Notre Dame to win each of its last two games.

The last two wins were good matchups for Notre Dame. Georgia and Penn State had similar weaknesses, with wide receiver being a main concern for both. Now, Notre Dame will face a team with the total opposite of that. Ohio State can throw a ton of weapons on the outside with Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate.

It’s not a game that really favors Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish need a low-scoring game. A low-scoring affair favors Marcus Freeman’s squad, as we saw in the past couple of rounds. No one has been able to turn a game into a track meet against Notre Dame because it does a great job of controlling the game on offense by running the ball. On defense, Notre Dame has done a great job at stopping the run and controlling first downs while having an excellent secondary.

It’s no mistake that Notre Dame is in this game. As I noted in my takeaways from the semifinals, Freeman has coached Notre Dame to be a great situational team. Notre Dame was tremendous on third downs and at the end of each half against Penn State. He has really developed as a young head coach.

Does Freeman have it in him to muddy this game and make it into a low-scoring street fight? Notre Dame certainly has the personnel to do so. Do I think it’ll happen? That remains to be seen.

Ohio State’s offense vs. Notre Dame’s defense

Let’s focus on the blueprint for each team on both sides of the ball. For Notre Dame’s defense, it’s like what we saw Tom Brady’s New England Patriots team do to win their first Super Bowl back in the 2001 NFL season when they took on the “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams. That game wasn’t about Brady, it was about what their defense did. They muddied the game by being physical with the Rams’ star receivers and making life difficult for Kurt Warner.

That’s exactly what Notre Dame has to do to Ohio State. It needs to be physical with the wide receivers. In fact, I’d dare Ohio State to run the football, particularly on early downs. If you look at Ohio State’s season, it’s most dangerous when it gets the ball to its wide receivers early to open the run game later. What it doesn’t do a great job of is establishing the run game early to open up the passing game later.

Notre Dame has to come into this game thinking, “If Ohio State is handing the ball off on first down, advantage us.” Invite the Buckeyes to do so. Play two safeties back and don’t stack the box with an extra defender. The film suggests that you cannot allow the ball to get to Smith, Egbuka and Tate in open space. It also suggests that you can’t allow Will Howard to throw the ball to his running backs (TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins) in rhythm out of the backfield. When Ohio State does those things, it turns into a track meet, like it did in its first two CFP wins.

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Notre Dame can’t win if it allows Ohio State to play that way. It should want Ohio State to play the way it did against Nebraska, Michigan and even Texas if it wants a chance to pull off the upset. In each of those games, Ohio State tried to establish the run early on but couldn’t. So, when you take away Ohio State’s passing game, it’ll have some struggles and stress.

Those three teams all have excellent defensive tackles. Against Texas, Ohio State also had self-inflicted errors early on that put it behind the sticks in a big way. In some ways, you have to view Ohio State’s offense as a fly wheel — a large wheel that takes a tremendous amount of effort to get started but becomes difficult to stop once it’s going. If Ohio State can get itself in rhythm, watch out. It’s imperative that Notre Dame survives the first quarter in a way that Texas did.

Coverage-wise, Ohio State hasn’t seen a lot of man-to-man coverage this season due to the talent it has at wide receiver. Notre Dame, meanwhile, is a great man-to-man coverage team. In last year’s Ohio State-Notre Dame game, the Irish covered Marvin Harrison Jr. similarly to how Michigan and Texas did with Smith, which was playing him in double coverage with a safety over the top while remaining in man principles. Notre Dame baited Ohio State into running the ball in that game last year at South Bend by playing that way. When then-Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord dropped back to pass, he had to hold the ball for a long time.

I think we’ll get something like that in the title game, with Notre Dame playing a light run defensive box in order to invite the run and have two free players in man coverage underneath. I don’t love it because you’re still playing Egbuka and Tate in man coverage. Out of the backfield, Henderson and Judkins would be matched up against linebackers.

If I was Notre Dame, I would play catch zone and not a ton of man coverage, like Michigan and Texas did. That made life difficult for Howard. If Notre Dame plays man coverage, Ryan Day and Chip Kelly could have a creative game plan that allows Ohio State’s stars to get loose early and take an insurmountable lead.

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In fact, I have a precise number for Notre Dame in this game: 17. I don’t think Notre Dame is going to score more than 17 points, so giving up anything more than that would be detrimental. Notre Dame has a narrow path to winning, just like it did in its last two wins. Those wins happened because it executed in key situational moments.

As for Ohio State’s offense, its blueprint for victory on offense is simple: be aggressive and creative. Ohio State’s not a great running and drop-back passing team. I know that sounds wild, but they really excel when they’ve got Howard on the move or when they get the ball to their top playmakers quickly. Those plays have allowed Ohio State to get big runs later in the game in each of their first three CFP wins.

Notre Dame’s offense vs. Ohio State’s defense

Expanding on a point previously made, I don’t think Notre Dame is going to score a ton in this game. Ohio State’s defense will be the best defense Notre Dame has faced to this point. Ohio State is good everywhere, particularly getting excellent play from its front seven. It has been creating pressure while getting elite play at safety from Caleb Downs. It has also gotten some good play at cornerback this postseason.

So, what can you do against Ohio State? Not a ton. First, Notre Dame has to find a way to achieve success on first downs. It can do that in two ways: running quarterback Riley Leonard or throwing the run-pass option. Leonard’s going to have to play the game of his life, both running and potentially throwing the ball. I think he’ll need to run the ball 15 to 20 times for Notre Dame to win. He’ll have to be so efficient in the run-pass option game that it’ll take Notre Dame out of what it wants to do because it can’t succeed in obvious down (second-and-long, third-and-long) situations. Ohio State’s pass rush and ability to take away the first read have been so good. Leonard’s also not great against pressure, with his numbers taking a real dive.

Ohio State has changed its pass rush structure along the edges in the second half of the season to not go past the level of the quarterback. That’s why Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau have combined for 10 of the Buckeyes’ 16 sacks this postseason. Those guys turn speed into power, speed rushing the offensive tackle before using a power move to collapse the pocket and get to the quarterback.

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When Ohio State’s edge rushers are executing their pass rush that way, it’s difficult to scramble against. It’ll be difficult for Leonard to scramble — similarly to the struggles of Nico Iamaleava, Dillon Gabriel and Quinn Ewers. He’ll probably get sacked five to seven times if Notre Dame has to throw the ball on obvious downs. Notre Dame doesn’t have weapons that are dynamic enough on the outside to threaten Ohio State, so Ohio State will load the box and have its eyes on Leonard plus Notre Dame’s running backs.

Ohio State struggled in coverage against Texas’ running backs in the Cotton Bowl. I think Ohio State will fix that issue. If it doesn’t, I would look at Jeremiyah Love and Aneyas Williams in the passing game. But Texas throwing the ball to its running backs was a second-half adjustment from Steve Sarkisian’s staff, which means Ohio State will have to adjust its defensive structure and game plan.

Pick

This matchup lies in the Buckeyes’ hands. They have the better roster, offense and defense. The only avenue for the Irish to win is if they can bait them into playing the way they did against Nebraska, Michigan and (in some ways) Texas. If Ohio State is pedal to the metal and getting the ball out of Howard’s hand early, Notre Dame will lose. This has to be a low-scoring game for Notre Dame because I don’t think it’ll score more than 17 points.

Ohio State has been the best team in college football since the Oregon loss in October. It has been phenomenal, and it has so many talented and veteran players they’ll make it tough for Leonard to run around. Who is he going to beat to the sideline? Notre Dame is going to have to create a short field and hope Ohio State has some self-inflicted wounds. Notre Dame fans should hope that Ohio State runs the on every first down.

So, last pick of the season. We’re 56-33 against the spread (62.9%) in our picks heading into Monday. I think Ohio State will cover the 8.5-point spread and maybe everyone will get off the back of Day in Columbus.

Pick: Ohio State 35, Notre Dame 17 (Ohio State -8.5)

Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him at @joelklatt and subscribe to the “Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.

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