Military Families Think US Will Be Involved in ‘Major Conflict’ Soon

A survey has found that over 80 percent of military families think the U.S. will be involved in a “major conflict” soon.

Blue Star Families, an organization dedicated to supporting military families that also researches military life, surveyed 5,573 active duty military families for the Military Family Lifestyle Survey and found that 83 percent believe the U.S. will be involved in a “major conflict” within the next 3-5 years.

At the same time, per Blue Star Families, only 67 percent of non-military-related civilians believe the U.S. will be involved in a “major conflict” soon.

Why It Matters

President Donald Trump entered office with promises to be a peacekeeper. However, over the past three weeks, the president has threatened to take over Greenland, Canada, Gaza, and the Panama Canal.

The Trump administration has also made moves to remove the Office of Civilian Protection from the Pentagon. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has said the army’s modern rules of engagement make it more difficult for the U.S. to win.

Blue Star Families has been contacted via email for further comment.

What To Know

The Blue Star Families survey did not elaborate on why a majority of military families surveyed believe a conflict will break out over the next 3 to 5 years, however, the U.S. Naval Institute has predicted a war with China in 2026, which may be one of the conflicts the families are referring to.

Retired U.S. Navy Commander Paul Giarra and former U.S. Navy Captains Bill Hamblet and Gerard Roncolato, writing for the United States Naval Institute, have said they believe war will break out between China and Taiwan in 2026 with initial attacks on Taiwanese infrastructure. They believe it will quickly move to involve the U.S. Airforce and Navy as they predict China will attack “the U.S. 5th Air Force in Japan, destroying most U.S. Air Force aircraft on the ground at Kadena and Misawa,” it will also damage U.S. naval facilities in Yokosuka and Sasebo.

Military families may also be concerned by the president’s rhetoric around creating a “riviera” in Gaza, which has been criticized by Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, and Iran. Iran’s foreign minister has said that Trump’s plan to relocate Palestinians in Gaza “poses a serious threat to the stability and security [of the region].”

What People Are Saying

President Donald Trump at his inauguration on January 20: “My legacy will be as a peacemaker and unifier. That’s what I want to be—a peacemaker and a unifier.”

Trump on Gaza, February 4: “The U.S. will take over the Gaza Strip and we will do a job with it too. We’ll own it and be responsible for dismantling all of the dangerous unexploded bombs and other weapons on the site, level the site and get rid of the destroyed buildings, level it out. Create an economic development that will supply unlimited numbers of jobs and housing for the people of the area … do a real job, do something different.”

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Friday: “Mr Trump has it in mind that the easiest way to do it is absorbing our country and it is a real thing.”

The mother of a U.S. Navy service member, who spoke to Newsweek but asked to remain anonymous, said: “[The survey answers] might have something to do with provoking Denmark/Greenland, baiting China, ignoring issues of regional sovereignty and self-determination in the Middle East, leaving Ukraine to hang out to dry, a rush for resources in—you name the African nation—and of course, initiating skirmishes at our northern and southern borders.”

What Happens Next

Trump’s National Security Adviser Mike Waltz has said the U.S. does not have plans to invade Canada.

Whether an all-out war will break out between the U.S. and its allies against China in 2026, as predicted by the U.S. Naval Institute remains to be seen. A trade war between the U.S. and China has begun, as the president placed a 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods and 25 percent tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports.