Americans Should ‘Absolutely Not’ Prepare for Recession—Trump Official

Amid uncertainty over trade wars, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told NBC News’ Meet the Press host Kristen Welker on Sunday that Americans should “absolutely not” brace for a recession, insisting that President Donald Trump’s economic agenda, with tariffs as its cornerstone, will drive growth.

Why It Matters

Over the past few weeks, Americans have been in limbo as a series of 25 percent tariffs against Canada and Mexico have been imposed, paused, reimposed and paused again, which has led to retaliatory tariffs. Trump has repeatedly advocated for tariffs to bolster U.S. production and combat fentanyl coming across the nation’s borders. China was met with a 10 percent increase in tariffs on Chinese goods.

Tariffs, are taxes on imported goods, typically paid by the importing businesses, which can then pass costs onto consumers through higher prices.

The threat, imposition and subsequent pauses of tariffs have caused significant market volatility. A prediction model from global financial services firm JPMorgan Chase shows the likelihood of an economic downturn has risen significantly.

Lutnick’s comments also come as Trump has pledged to lower grocery costs, notably eggs, a promise that has yet to materialize.

What To Know

On Sunday, Welker asked Lutnick: “Should Americans brace for a recession?”

The commerce secretary replied: “Absolutely not,” adding that the president “is a winner, he’s going to win for the American people. That’s just how it’s going to be. There’s going to be no recession in America.”

He continued that Trump’s tariffs are expected to prompt other countries to lower their tariffs and encourage American economic growth.

“You are going to see over the next two years the greatest set of growth coming from America,” he said.

Trump issued a one-month pause on tariffs on Canada and Mexico products covered by the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) free trade treaty on Thursday.

On Sunday, Lutnick acknowledged that due to the tariffs, “foreign goods may get a little more expensive, but American goods are going to get cheaper and you’re going to be helping Americans by buying Americans.”

Earlier this week, a prediction model from JPMorgan Chase, analyzed by Bloomberg, showed that the probability of an economic downturn has grown to 31 percent from 17 percent at the end of November. A Goldman Sachs Group Inc. model suggested increase recession risk, at 23 percent up from 14 percent in January.

The S&P 500 on Thursday had its worst trading day of the year, dropping 1.8 percent while the Nasdaq plunged 2.6 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1 percent. Cumulatively, the Dow Jones has dropped a little over 1,600 points since February 10, while the Nasdaq dropped around 1,500 points and the S&P 500 has dropped around 300 points.

The most recent U.S. recession was in 2020 at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick is seen at the Capitol in Washington, D.C., on March 4.

AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana

What People Are Saying

Representative Frank Pallone, a New Jersey Democrat, wrote last week on X, formerly Twitter: “Trade wars kill the economy. We all should’ve learned this in history class. But Trump didn’t—now his reckless tariffs are tanking markets, driving up prices, and pushing us toward recession. Anyone? Anyone?”

David Wessel, senior fellow in Economic Studies and director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution, previously told Newsweek: “The U.S. economy has a lot of momentum and I don’t see any signs that the U.S. has entered a recession, but I do wonder if we are at an inflection point.

“My major concern is that the on-again/off-again tariffs, the ripple effects of the ham-fisted DOGE-led personnel policies, the challenges to long-held norms and institutions, policy-making by Musk tweets or Trump Truth Social posts is creating uncertainty and anxiety that could lead businesses and maybe even investors to say, well, I think I’m going to wait and see.”

Mohamed A. El-Erian, Bloomberg columnist and former CEO of Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO), wrote on Tuesday: “While still relatively low, my probability of a recession has increased from 10 percent at the beginning of the year to 25 percent to 30 percent today. This is a consequential and quite unsettling development for an economy with high potential and aspirations, elevated asset prices, and a pivotal role in driving global growth.”

President Donald Trump said during a recent interview with Fox Business’ Maria Bartiromo: “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing. And there are always periods of it takes a little time. I think it should be great for us.”

Former Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang wrote last week on X: “Do I think Trump is leading us into a recession through his tariffs, posturing and erratic leadership? Yes. Yes I do.”