College basketball conference tournament preview: Bubble teams, players to watch, picks

John Fanta

College Basketball Broadcaster and Reporter

Michael Cohen

College Football and College Basketball Writer

The best time of year has arrived! College hoops fans will be treated to a flurry of action this week as power conference tournaments get underway with automatic bids to the Big Dance on the line. The Big 12 and ACC Conference Tournaments kick off Tuesday, while the Big East, Big Ten and SEC Tournaments get underway on Wednesday.

Which conference tournaments should fans be paying close attention to? What does Xavier need to do in the Big East Tournament in order to feel good come Selection Sunday? And who are the names fans should be getting to know as the Big Dance approaches?

FOX Sports college basketball writers John Fanta and Michael Cohen are here to answer that and more as we get set for conference tournament action.

Which men’s basketball conference tournament should fans be looking forward to the most, and why?

John Fanta: There is really only one answer for this year: the Southeastern Conference. When you have the depth of national championship contenders such as Auburn, Florida, Alabama and Tennessee, along with superstar talent ranging from Johni Broome to Mark Sears to Walter Clayton and even Chaz Lanier, the level of play in this conference is off-the-charts.

There are 16 teams in this league and 13 are in a position to make the NCAA Tournament. There’s no such thing as a bad game in Nashville when every team in the conference converges. 

The three things I am watching: 

• How will Auburn respond after back-to-back losses? The Tigers fell to Alabama this weekend, 93-91, on a Mark Sears’ buzzer-beater. Earlier in the week, the Tigers lost by 11 to Texas A&M. This is noteworthy because Bruce Pearl’s team had as many losses this past week as they had throughout the entirety of the season up to that point. Am I worried? Not one bit. We could get a quarterfinal matchup between the Tigers and a sizzling Arkansas team that has won four of five to get back into the NCAA Tournament conversation in John Calipari’s first season.
• Will Kentucky make a run in Year 1 of the Mark Pope Era? The Wildcats are made for the spotlight, matching an NCAA record with eight top-15 wins this season behind Otega Oweh, Andrew Carr and the sixth-most efficient offense in the country. Coming off a momentum-boosting win at Missouri, UK is the 6-seed in the SEC Tournament and will get Georgia or Oklahoma in the second round. How about a quarterfinal showdown with Alabama? That would be a heck of an offensive display.
• We could have a semifinal slate featuring Auburn/Tennessee and Florida/Alabama. The Gators are a title contender with a top-three offense, a top-10 defense, an All-American in Walter Clayton, a high-level big man in Alex Condon, who is coming off a 17-and-15 performance, as well as Alijah Martin, who is the perfect Robin to Clayton in the backcourt. This is new territory in the Todd Golden Era. How will they handle it?

Michael Cohen: This one is a no-brainer, just like John said. Given the supreme depth of talent in this year’s SEC — with four teams in the top eight of this week’s AP Poll and seven in the top 25 overall — someone is going to make the argument that winning the SEC Tournament is more challenging than winning the NCAA Tournament, especially for the teams that will begin their run toward the Final Four with mid-major opponents. And while that concept might still be something of a stretch, especially considering the travel and extra games involved in the Big Dance, the sentiment is worth noting given just how extraordinary the level of competition has been in the SEC. 

Typically, the opening round at major conference tournaments can feel a bit sleepy as the cellar-dwellers do battle in half-empty arenas before most fans arrive in time for the following day. But this year’s first-day SEC slate includes a handful of high-level draft prospects in Texas’ Tre Johnson (lottery), Oklahoma’s Jeremiah Fears (lottery), South Carolina’s Collin Murray-Boyles (first round), Georgia’s Asa Newell (first round) and three potential draft choices from Arkansas in Adou Thiero (first round), Boogie Fland (second round) and Zvonimir Ivisic (second round). That’s enough talent for NBA scouts and personnel to flood the bleachers for what is normally a listless slate. 

And then the heavy hitters arrive on Thursday and Friday, with the top eight seeds in this year’s bracket all ranked among the top 27 teams in the country by KenPom. Storylines abound: From the quartet of teams all battling for potential No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament (Auburn, Tennessee, Florida, Alabama), to the resurgence of Ole Miss under second-year head coach Chris Beard, to the impossibly high expectations surrounding first-year Kentucky coach Mark Pope, to the upstarts from Missouri and Texas A&M, all of whom are enjoying their best seasons in quite some time. The crowds in Nashville this week should be fantastic given just how many programs are enjoying magical runs thus far, with legitimate March Madness success likely to follow. This SEC Tournament is deeper than anything we’ve seen since the 2011 Big East field that included nine teams ranked in the Top 25, including eventual national champion UConn. 

Which team currently sitting on the NCAA Tournament bubble has the most to gain from this weekend’s conference tournaments?

Michael: The Big East Tournament bracket came together quite favorably for Xavier (21-10 overall, 13-7 Big East) in the sense that any success the Musketeers have in New York will come against some of the best teams in the league, all but assuring head coach Sean Miller’s group of a trip to the Big Dance. Winners of seven straight games, including five victories by double digits, the Musketeers did enough to earn a first-round bye before facing fifth-seeded Marquette on Thursday afternoon. And while the Golden Eagles will arrive at Madison Square Garden having dropped back-to-back games (UConn on the road; St. John’s at home), they were still mainstays in the AP Poll all season, which affords Xavier the chance for what amounts to another ranked win before Selection Sunday. 

From there, Miller and his team would have the chance to do something special in a potential semifinal matchup with St. John’s, the No. 1 seed and unquestioned best team in the league. The only Big East teams to topple the Red Storm this season were Creighton on Dec. 31 (one-point margin) and Villanova on Feb. 12 (two-point margin), but Xavier played head coach Rick Pitino’s group quite well in a pair of narrow losses by 18 combined points. The Musketeers even pushed St. John’s into overtime at Madison Square Garden on Jan. 22 before ultimately falling, 79-71. 

A second-round win over Marquette might be enough to get Xavier into the NCAA Tournament — although a non-conference slate devoid of any quality wins certainly hurts Miller’s crew — but an upset of St. John’s in the semifinals would unquestionably do the trick. Anything beyond that, like a possible matchup with second-seeded Creighton or third-seeded UConn in the championship game, would be gravy. The Musketeers just have to keep their momentum from the last three weeks rolling into Madison Square Garden. 

John: The Mountain West Tournament should be renamed the “teams with most to gain invitational” because that’s what we have in this conference this week. At the moment, Mike Decourcy has four teams from the league – New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah State and Boise State – in the dance. But the Broncos lost at home on Friday to the Rams and now have the Aztecs in a mammoth 4-5 quarterfinal game on Thursday. The second-seeded Colorado State Rams are top-55 in the NET with one Quad 1 win and two Quad 2 losses, leaving them on the outside for at-large consideration. But winning this tournament removes any of that chatter, and Nique Clifford, who’s averaging 18.4 points, 9.7 rebounds and 4.4 assists, is coming off a 36-point showing in Friday’s win at Boise State.

Boise State needs to win their quarterfinal matchup the most. A NET of 45 and two Q1 wins is good, but owning one loss in Q3 and Q4 wipes that out. Beating the Aztecs means getting a Quad 1 game against New Mexico in what could be a win-and-in situation. 

Name one player who isn’t a household name but has the chance to make a name for himself this weekend during the conference tournaments?

John: Ja’Kobi Gillespie of Maryland. The Terrapins are the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten Tournament and it feels like they’re not getting discussed enough. Winners of seven of their last eight games, Kevin Willard has a group with one of the best starting fives in America, nicknamed “The Crab Five.” While one-and-done NBA Draft prospect Derik Queen is the headliner, Gillespie is the junior point guard who steers the ship for Maryland, averaging 14.9 points and 4.7 assists per game while shooting 47% from the floor and 42% from 3-point range. He’s gotten better as the season’s gone on, scoring 17-or-more in four of the last six games and really running the offense well. I like the way things are set up for Maryland, and if the Terrapins make it to the title game on Sunday, we’re going to naturally be talking about the man who runs their offense. His team is 24-7 and peaking at the right time. Watch out for the Terps. They’re back on the map and have – dare I say it – dark-horse potential to be playing into April. 

Michael: How about JT Toppin from Texas Tech? A transfer from New Mexico, where he spent one season, Toppin is averaging 18.1 points and 9.3 rebounds per game for a team that has only lost three times since Jan. 11, under head coach Grant McCasland. Few players in college basketball, if any, have been hotter than Toppin over the last month of the regular season, a stretch in which he poured in 41 points during a double-overtime win over Arizona State, 32 points in a road win at Oklahoma State and 30 points in a home win over Colorado. Toppin is averaging 24.4 points and 11 rebounds over his last nine games to propel the Red Raiders into the Big 12 Tournament as the No. 2 seed, trailing only Houston. 

But Texas Tech (24-7 overall, 15-5 Big 12) is far more than just a one-man team under McCasland, who is in his second season with the program. The Red Raiders rank seventh overall in offensive efficiency and have cracked the top 50 in the following sub-categories: effective field goal percentage (27th), lowest turnover percentage (39th), free-throw percentage (29th) and assist rate on made field goals (48th). Toppin is one of three players averaging at least 14 points per game this season and one of five averaging at least nine. The defensive numbers are strong, too: Texas Tech is 27th in defensive efficiency and 39th in effective field goal percentage. 

So if the Red Raiders play well this week in Kansas City, then Toppin could certainly vault himself into a household name.  

4. Who are your conference tournament winners?

Michael:

Big East: St. John’s. There hasn’t been this much excitement surrounding the Red Storm in more than 20 years, and the crowds at Madison Square Garden this week are likely to reflect that. Head coach Rick Pitino’s team, which has the third-best defense in the country, is simply too big, too strong and too mature for the rest of the Big East, as evidenced by the 18-2 mark in conference play. St. John’s will cut down the nets on Saturday night and roll into the NCAA Tournament with plenty of confidence. 

Big Ten: Michigan State. The Big Ten presents an interesting field because Michigan State and Maryland are the only teams with a double bye who will travel to Indianapolis feeling good about the way they’re playing. Third-seeded Michigan, which got blown out by the Spartans on Sunday, has dropped four of its last six and appears lost on offense. Fourth-seeded UCLA has lost three of its last seven and last defeated a team ranked among the top 30 by KenPom on Feb. 4. Perhaps someone like Indiana or Illinois can get hot and make a run, but the Spartans are playing better basketball than everyone else. 

SEC: Florida. The Gators have been one of the steadiest teams in the country all season and enter the SEC Tournament with the sport’s No. 3 offense and No. 10 defense, a reflection of just how balanced head coach Todd Golden’s team really is. That Florida has only lost two games since Jan. 14 despite playing in the rigorous SEC speaks to the mental toughness of this year’s team. Guards tend to win games in March, and the Gators have an elite trio in Walter Clayton Jr. (17.2 points per game), Alijah Martin (14.5 points per game) and Will Richard (13.3 points per game). 

Big 12: Houston. This year’s Big 12 reminds me of the Big East in that one team was head and shoulders above the rest during the regular season. Houston (27-4 overall, 19-1 Big 12) won the conference title by four games (!) over Texas Tech and five games over both BYU and Arizona. The Cougars are 10th in the country in offensive efficiency and second in the country in defensive efficiency, with more than enough talent to cut down the nets twice in the next few weeks. That will likely start in Kansas City. 

ACC: Duke. The Blue Devils have a chance to secure the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament with a dominant run through the ACC Tournament this week, and that should be plenty of motivation for head coach Jon Scheyer and his team. An exceptionally weak ACC largely boils down to three contenders: Duke, Clemson and Louisville. The Blue Devils split with those teams during the regular season but have been absolutely dominant since falling to the Tigers on Feb. 8. They’ve won eight straight by an average of 29.5 points per game. 

John: I have a rule that I abide by. Picking a No. 1 seed in a conference tournament is no fun at all, so I’ll try to make the case for somebody outside the top seed.

Big East: UConn. The Huskies have won five of their last six games and Alex Karaban has regained his shooting stroke at 8-for-15 in his last three contests. If this Connecticut team has Karaban, Liam McNeeley and Solo Ball all in rhythm from 3-point land, they have the weapons that can mask so much. Plus, Husky fans travel to MSG extremely well, and I like the draw with a Villanova team that has struggled away from home, if not an 11-seeded Seton Hall team, followed by a potential matchup against Creighton. I think we get a St. John’s vs. UConn title game.

Big Ten: Maryland. I’ll go with Maryland because of the balance between the frontcourt of Queen and stud veteran Julian Reese, and the three-headed backcourt monster of Gillespie, Selton Miguel and Rodney Rice. If this team gets quality perimeter shooting from their guards and there’s no frontcourt foul trouble, the Terps are a tough out. 

SEC: Florida. The Gators can lock you up defensively and have five players averaging at least 9.1 points per game. They also know they can rely on Clayton to be a big-time shotmaker and the depth and length inside is really strong. 

Big 12: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders rank seventh in the country in KenPom. This team can reach San Antonio – let’s make that clear. They have the length and versatility to guard 1-5 and the combo of Toppin and Chance McMillian is really special as they’re averaging 33 and 13 per game. 

ACC: Clemson. The Tigers are 14-1 in their last 15 games and have impact returners back for a program that reached the Elite Eight last year. Chase Hunter averages 16 points per game, Jaeden Zackery turns the water off of an opponent’s top scorer with his defense, and Ian Schieffelin and Viktor Lakhin provide the interior punch. This team is well-rounded. 

John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him at @John_Fanta.

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him on Twitter @Michael_Cohen13.

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