The legal tampering period began Monday, and with that, the money went flying. Nearly all of the 30 best free agents from our top-100 list came off the board within those first 24 hours.
History has shown that spending big in free agency can lead to more wins, but not necessarily Super Bowls. Of course, lavish spending can also backfire.
With that, here are our 10 riskiest contracts from free agency thus far.
RELATED:Winners and losers of NFL free agency’s legal tampering period
10. Sam Darnold, QB, Seattle Seahawks Contract: Three years, $100.5 million, $55 million guaranteed
The deal itself could be a good one for the Seahawks. His $33.5 million average salary places him No. 18 among starting QBs. Essentially, GM John Schneider got Darnold for two years and $55 million, and then they can move if things don’t work out after that. It also doesn’t prohibit Seattle from drafting a developmental quarterback as insurance for the Darnold experiment.
The risk lies in whether Darnold will actually be an upgrade over Geno Smith, who won at least nine games in each of the past three seasons and made two Pro Bowls.
Smith would have cost the Seahawks (perhaps significantly) more to retain, and Schneider balked at paying an older QB more money. But there is pressure on Schneider & Co. to win now after missing the playoffs the past two seasons, which makes some of their other moves this offseason even more curious. Darnold was widely viewed as the top QB in free agency following his career year with the Vikings. Of course, Justin Jefferson and Kevin O’Connell will not be joining him in Seattle, and the data on Darnold before Minnesota is not good. There’ll be intense scrutiny on his play this season, especially in comparison with how Smith fares with the Raiders.
9. Talanoa Hufanga, S, Denver Broncos Contract: Three years, $45 million, $20 million guaranteed
Hufanga has been a Pro Bowl-level player who can improve Denver’s play in the back end defensively. The question is, will he consistently stay on the field? Hufanga played in just seven games last year due to wrist and ankle injuries after missing the last seven games of 2023 with a torn ACL. He’s only 25, however, so it’s possible his best football is ahead of him.
8. Justin Fields, QB, New York Jets Contract: Two years, 40 million, $30 million guaranteed
Will the third team be the charm for Fields? He’s still only 26 years old and offers upside with his strong arm and athleticism. But it’s telling that he started just six games last season before the Steelers benched him in favor of Russell Wilson. After four seasons, he is 14-30 as a starter and has a career 83.9 passer rating.
Now, he’s the starter for a first-time head coach (the defensive-minded Aaron Glenn) and takes over a team that just struggled with an aging Aaron Rodgers. The Jets, of course, haven’t gotten consistently good QB play in nearly two decades.
7. DK Metcalf, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers Contract: Five years, $150 million,
Just 27 years old, Metcalf is a mismatch problem on the perimeter who gives maximum effort and is a terror as a stalk blocker in the running game. His addition gives the Steelers two explosive playmakers on the perimeter, along with George Pickens. Trading a second-rounder for Metcalf made a lot of sense. The objection comes from paying him one of the highest contracts for a receiver when it does not match his production.
Over the past two seasons, Metcalf is No. 15 in the league in receiving yards (2,106), tied for No. 20 in receiving touchdowns (13) and No. 40 in receptions (132). He’s also been one of the most penalized receivers in the league and can have a bit of a temperamental personality, so how he gels with another unique personality in Pickens will be something to monitor, although Mike Tomlin is a strong personality and can handle guys like that.
6. Aaron Banks, OL, Green Bay Packers Contract: Four years, $77 million, $27 million guaranteed
Banks was another in the mass exodus of 49ers, as they look to build a younger roster. San Francisco offensive line coach Chris Foerster is one of the best in the business at finding and developing talent. It’s one of the reasons the 49ers usually do not draft offensive linemen in the first round, instead taking developmental prospects later in the draft. So, it’s a bit concerning when San Francisco chooses not to pay one of its starters and allows them to hit free agency.
5. Javon Kinlaw, DT, Washington Commanders Contract: Three years, $45 million, $30 million guaranteed
Kinlaw’s talent is undeniable. Washington GM Adam Peters is keenly aware of that, having been in the front office for San Francisco when the 49ers selected Kinlaw in the first round of the 2020 draft. The 27-year-old started all 17 games for the Jets last season and proved to be an effective pass-rusher inside. He could be entering his prime, especially after missing significant time in his first three seasons. But guaranteeing $30 million to a player with his general lack of production is a curious decision for a team expected to compete for a Super Bowl in 2025.
4. Josh Sweat, DE, Arizona Cardinals Contract: Four years, $76 million, $41 million guaranteed
Sweat turned an outstanding Super Bowl performance in which he finished with 2.5 sacks into a big pay day. The move to Arizona reunites him with former Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon. The Cardinals need pass-rush help, and Sweat gives them a legitimate rusher off the edge. But it remains to be seen if Sweat can create consistent pressure without defensive tackles like Jalen Carter and Milton Williams causing havoc up the middle. After being a part of consistently loaded defensive lines in Philly, Sweat will receive more attention from opposing offenses than he’s used to. He also has just one double-digit sack season in his seven-year career.
3. Jaylon Moore, OT, Kansas City Chiefs Contract: Two years, $30 million, $21.2 million guaranteed
Moore was a fill-in last year for future Hall of Fame left tackle Trent Williams, but went largely unused the previous three years in San Francisco. Now he’s the blindside protector for the best player in football. No pressure, right? Moore has allowed just two sacks in 279 pass-blocking snaps over the past two seasons. The potential is there for Moore to blossom into a reliable, full-time starter. But for a team that struggled to consistently protect Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl, it’s a significant risk to put his health in the hands of such an unproven player.
2. Milton Williams, DT, New England Patriots Contract: Four years, $104 million, $55 million guaranteed
Williams parlayed a big Super Bowl performance and a nice 2024 campaign into the NFL’s third-largest contract for a defensive tackle. His 12.5% pressure rate was fourth among defensive tackles with at least 100 pass-rush attempts last season, per Next Gen Stats. But can the Patriots expect to get that kind of production from Williams as the lead guy pushing the pocket? The 25-year-old Williams wasn’t a full-time starter last year, playing just 48% of the defensive snaps for the Eagles. It will be interesting to see what his production is like with an increase in playing time — and without Jalen Carter alongside him.
1. Dan Moore, OT, Tennessee Titans Contract: Four years, $82 million, $50 million guaranteed
Moore allowed 12 sacks in 615 pass block snaps last year with the Steelers, according to Pro Football Focus. The Titans rewarded that performance with the highest contract for an offensive tackle in this free-agent cycle. The Titans allowed 52 sacks as a team last season, tied for fifth-most in the league. They’re betting big on Moore to not only anchor an improvement but serve as their blindside protector for the foreseeable future. By the way, who will be under center for the Titans?
Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on X at @eric_d_williams.
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