Best Heat vs. Hawks Player Props, ATS Bets: Miami Visits Atlanta

Oddsmakers see tonight’s battle for the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference Playoffs as a toss-up.

The clash between the Heat and the Hawks is a rare instance where sportsbooks are split on the betting favorite, with DraftKings listing Miami at -1 (as of Friday morning), while it’s Atlanta -1 over at both FanDuel and bet365.

While the Heat reached this point with an impressive road win over Chicago earlier this week, Atlanta is coming off a one-sided loss to Orlando that saw star PG Trae Young ejected in the fourth quarter.

Heat vs. Hawks Odds: Spread, ML, Total

How to Watch Heat vs. Hawks Play-In Game

• Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
• Channel: TNT/truTV/Max

Best Heat vs. Hawks Player Prop Bets

Trae Young Under 26.5 points (-120 at bet365) — 1 unit

There is good reason to fade Young tonight, even if we overlook his meltdown late in Tuesday night’s 120-95 loss to Orlando.

The biggest hurdle for Young tonight is his tough matchup. The Heat are top-10 in both points allowed per game and defensive rating, and they held Young to under 20 points in three of four regular-season Heat-Hawks matchups.

Young scored 29 points on March 27 in the most recent battle between these teams, but he still only averaged 17 points per game vs. Miami this year, well below his season average of 24.2 ppg.

A close look at his shooting numbers paints an even bleaker picture: Young shot just 21-for-60 (9-for-34 from 3) across four games against the Heat, and that includes a red-hot night from outside (6-for-12 from 3) in the last meeting. Given that he shot just 3-for-22 on 3-pointers vs. Miami in the other three matchups, I expect the Heat to keep him in check in this game.

We’re rolling the dice a bit given Young’s consistent volume (18.1 FGA per game), but we like Miami’s chances of forcing the Hawks’ top threat into another long night. It’s also unclear what version of Young and Atlanta we’ll see after the Hawks appeared to quit late in the loss to the Magic, getting outscored 41-22 in the fourth quarter.

With that in mind, I also recommend a half-unit on Trae Young Under 36.5 Points + Assists (-105 at DK).While he recorded 41 P+A (29 points, 12 assists) the last time he faced the Heat, he produced 26 or fewer P+A in in three of four matchups between these teams.

Heat vs. Hawks Pick, Best Bets

This version of the Heat doesn’t have the firepower to take down the Cavaliers in the first round.

Tonight, though, I expect vets Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo and Andrew Wiggins to quickly establish the upper hand against an injury-depleted Hawks team that started four players who are 24 years old or younger — Onyeka Okongwu (24), Dyson Daniels (21), Mouhamed Gueye (22) and Zaccharie Risacher (19) — against the Magic.

Give me the Heat to win this one without too much trouble.

Heat vs. Hawks Best Bets:

• Heat ML (-104 at FanDuel) — 2 units
• Heat alt spread -9.5 (+292 at FD) — 0.5 units

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