GOP’s Chances of Beating Jon Ossoff in Georgia Without Brian Kemp on Ticket

Georgia Governor Brian Kemp’s decision not to challenge Senator Jon Ossoff in the state’s 2026 Senate race could be a boon to Democrats’ chances of holding the seat in the battleground state, according to recent polls.

Why It Matters

The decision by Kemp, a Republican, left national Republicans recalibrating in a race Democrats need to hold to win back control of the Senate in the midterms.

Seen as a top-tier contender capable of uniting moderate and conservative voters, Kemp’s absence opens the door to a wide primary field—and new questions about whether Republicans can topple Ossoff without him.

“Over the last few weeks, I have had many conversations with friends, supporters, and leaders across the country who encouraged me to run for the US Senate in 2026. I greatly appreciate their support and prayers for our family,” Kemp wrote on X (formerly Twitter). “After those discussions, I have decided that being on the ballot next year is not the right decision for me and my family.”

What To Know

Kemp’s announcement follows months of speculation about whether he would challenge Ossoff, a Democrat first elected in 2020. Polls suggest Kemp would have been the strongest candidate against Ossoff and that other potential Republicans trail the incumbent senator in a hypothetical matchup.

“Given that Kemp was perhaps the strongest candidate to face Ossoff, his decision to not run will make it difficult to find another candidate that would be as competitive. However, the election is over a year away, and in politics, a lot can happen in that amount of time,” William Hatcher, chair and professor of social sciences at Augusta University, told Newsweek on Tuesday.

A poll from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution found that Kemp led Ossoff by 3.3 points (49 percent to 45.7 percent), Ossoff led three other prospective challengers.

In a hypothetical race against Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, Ossoff led by nearly 17 points (54 percent to 37 percent). He led Georgia’s Insurance and Safety Fire Commissioner John King by about 13 points (51 percent to 38 percent) and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger by just over 9 points (48 percent to 39 percent).

The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters in Georgia from April 15 to April 24, 2025. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

A recent Trafalgar poll also found Ossoff leading other potential Republican challengers. He led Representative Mike Collins by fewer than five points (48 percent to 43 percent), Greene by more than 11 points (48 percent to 37 percent) and Raffensperger by about 9 points (46 percent to 37 percent).

That poll surveyed 1,426 respondents from April 24 to April 27, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

Hatcher said the state Republicans face a “limited” bench to challenge Ossoff, but whoever prevails will eventually have to defend Trump’s “unpopular economic policies that will most likely adversely affect states like Georgia, particularly his recent commentary on leveling tariffs on the film industry – a industry that has a significant presence in Georgia.”

“Historically, the party that does not control the White House performs well in the first national election cycle after the president wins. Typically, this trend does not always hold in state and local elections. However, in the Trump Era, most election cycles are national contest,” he said.

Charles Bullock, professor of political science at the University of Georgia, told Newsweek Kemp would have been the strongest candidate against Ossoff and that other candidates are less known across the state.

Ossoff will not only benefit from not having to face a popular governor, but the primary may also boost his chances. If a large number of Republicans run, the primary will likely go to a runoff, which will see “harsher” attack ads, Bullock said.

“Republicans run the risk that whoever emerges from that runoff may be unable to unite the party afterwards,” he said.

Ossoff will likely try to tie whoever wins the primary to Trump, but that may be more difficult to do if someone like King or Raffensperger, who aren’t as close to the president, emerge victorious, Bullock said.

What People Are Saying

Bullock said to Newsweek: “It’s still going to be one of the high priority contests. Ossoff’s been mentioned as being most vulnerable Democrat, maybe he isn’t now without Kemp. But certainly, he’s still going to be on the vulnerable list.”

Jeffrey Lazarus, professor of political science at Georgia State University, told Newsweek: “Kemp absolutely would have been the strongest challenger to Ossoff if he had run. Kemp has already won multiple top-of-the-ticket statewide offices, was beating Ossoff in head-to-head polling, and, perhaps most importantly, has a fundraising machine that’s unrivaled in the state. There are other strong potential challengers but none are as threatening as Kemp. If Kemp had run he would’ve been the favorite to win; anyone else being the nominee means Ossoff is the favorite to win reelection (though the outcome is still far from certain).”

Ossoff’s campaign manager Ellen Foster previously told Newsweek: “As we’ve said for the past few months, Senator Ossoff is well-prepared to defeat any challenger. As Republicans scramble in the aftermath, our campaign will continue to build insurmountable momentum needed to win next November.”

Kemp wrote on X: “I spoke with President Trump and Senate leadership earlier today and expressed my commitment to work alongside them to ensure we have a strong Republican nominee who can win next November, and ultimately be a conservative voice in the US Senate who will put hardworking Georgians first.”

What Happens Next

With Kemp out, the Republican primary is expected to become more competitive—and potentially more divisive. GOP leaders must now rally around a candidate capable of maintaining party unity while appealing to Georgia’s increasingly diverse electorate and increasingly competitive suburbs.

Meanwhile, Ossoff prepares to defend the battleground seat in Georgia, which Trump carried by just over two points in 2024. He and his party are counting on the same coalition that helped former President Joe Biden flip Georgia in 2020.

Looking beyond 2026, Kemp, term-limited in Georgia, has been floated as a potential presidential candidate.