Map Shows States Where Homeowners Benefit Most from Capital Gains Tax Plan

Blue states, including California and Washington, are among those that stand to benefit the most from President Donald Trump’s idea to eliminate the federal capital gains tax on home sales, according to a new study.

A proposal to abolish the tax was first pushed forward by Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene last month and then echoed by Trump, who told reporters on July 22 that he was “thinking about…no tax on capital gains on houses.”

While it is not yet clear if the president’s suggestion may lead to a real change in the way home sales are taxed by the government, real estate brokerage Redfin has calculated that homeowners in California, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Washington, and New Jersey, in this order, would benefit the most from the abolition of the capital gains tax.

What Is the Federal Capital Gains Tax on Home Sales—and Why Does Trump Want To Abolish It?

Homeowners who sell a property where they have been living for longer than a year may have to pay capital gains taxes if they sell their property for more than they originally purchased it for. Capital gains taxes are a portion of the profit made by homeowners through the years that their property has appreciated in value.

At the moment, capital gains taxes are limited by a cap. Homeowners who have lived in a home as their primary residence for at least 24 months in the five years before the sale receive an exemption on the first $250,000 of gains for individuals and $500,000 for married couples filing jointly.

This cap, however, has not been updated since it was introduced in 1997 nor adjusted for inflation—leading many experts to support urgent changes to the exclusion.

“It is not indexed for inflation. In real terms, the exclusion has gone down over these last 20-something years,” William McBride, Chief Economist & Stephen J. Entin Fellow in Economics at the Tax Foundation, told Newsweek. “The high inflation we had in recent years, during the pandemic and consequently, is one of the things that has caused a lot of home price appreciation.”

While this is a problem that typically affects wealthier homeowners the most, the rapid appreciation that occurred during the pandemic homebuying frenzy means that “this is no longer just a concern for high-end properties,” Shannon McGahn, executive vice president and chief advocacy officer at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), told Newsweek.

According to a recent report by NAR, nearly 29 million homeowners, about one-third of the U.S. market, already face potential capital gains taxes if they sell, “and that number is expected to climb sharply over the next decade,” McGahn said. If no change is made to the way capital gains are taxed, nearly 70 percent of homeowners could exceed the $250,000 cap, according to NAR.

“A sizable portion of homeowners, especially in states with high home prices that have grown quickly, are sitting on more than the $250k/$500k of capital gains that are exempt from capital gains taxes,” Chen Zhao, head of economics research at Redfin, previously told Newsweek.

“These homeowners generally have owned their homes for a long period of time, but in some places, people are exceeding the current capital gains exemptions solely based on appreciation during the pandemic.”

Trump has hinted at the idea of abolishing the capital gains tax on home sales as a solution to the ongoing affordability crisis in the U.S. housing market. On July 22, he told reporters that “if the Fed would lower the rates, we wouldn’t even have to do that.”

Greene has framed the tax as an “unfair burden” hurting the “American dream.”

Which States Will Benefit the Most—and the Least

According to Redfin, more than a quarter of homes across the U.S. have gained at least $250,000 in value since the last time they were purchased, with 8 percent having gained more than $500,000. The owners of these homes are the ones that stand to benefit by a potential elimination of the capital gains tax.

By the same reasoning, the states where homeowners stand to gain from the abolition of the tax are those where homes have appreciated the most in recent decades. These include some of the most expensive housing markets in the country: California and Hawaii.

In the Golden State, the median home value is $766,896 and the typical capital gain of all homes is $332,659, according to Redfin. A total of 62.3 percent of homes in the state have gained at least $250,000 since they were last sold—the highest share of any state in the nation. One in three (33 percent) have gained more than $500,000.

Hawaii followed with 61 percent of homes having gained more than $250,000 in value since they were last sold, while 34.6 percent gained over $500,000. The overall capital gain was even higher than that of California, however, at $338,346.

The top five states that would benefit most from the abolition of the federal capital gains tax also include Massachusetts, Washington and New Jersey, with respectively 58.4 percent, 54.1 percent, and 52.2 percent of homes that have gained at least $250,000 in value since they were last sold.

Do you think abolishing the federal capital gains tax on home sales is a good or bad idea? Let me know your opinion by emailing g.carbonaro@newsweek.com.

The states where homeowners would benefit the least from the change, on the other hand, are Mississippi, North Dakota, Iowa, Oklahoma and Wyoming, which have seen the smallest share of homes that have appreciated over $250,000 in the country, respectively at 1.2 percent, 2.2 percent, 2.4 percent, 3.1 percent and 3.4 percent.

What Would Be the Impact of Eliminating the Capital Gains Tax?

According to experts, eliminating the federal capital gains tax could have a positive impact on the U.S. housing market, unlocking homes that homeowners were previously holding on to to avoid a high fiscal burden.

“Ending the capital gains tax could potentially spur some sales by removing a barrier to selling. Home sales have been in a slump for the past couple years, and this might nudge some sellers to consider,” Bankrate’s Jeff Ostrowski told Newsweek. “However, the tax burden is far from the main cause of the housing market slowdown.”

Some experts fear that such a move could have unwanted consequences.

“Ongoing affordability issues could be exacerbated by abolishing this tax as it could fuel demand and lead to a more competitive housing market, especially where supply is constrained,” Hannah Jones, senior economist at Realtor.com, told Newsweek. “Removing this tax would favor wealthy owners which could worsen equity inequality and make the market even more challenging for low-to-mid-earning buyers.”

McBride also said the measure does not address another cause of home price appreciation in recent years: the lack of supply.

“There’s a shortage of supply and that’s the fundamental problem that needs to be addressed directly. This proposal does not address that,” he said. “We have a penalty on investment in housing, on the supply of housing, due to its tax treatment through our depreciation system. That should be addressed, that’s the way to directly address this.”