UNC Under 7.5 Wins ‘One Of The Most Popular Tickets Across The Country’

Sam Panayotovich

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

We’re not far away from Bill Belichick’s head coaching debut at North Carolina.

So many questions, so little time.

The Tar Heels host TCU on Monday, Sep. 1, under the lights, as the 73-year-old coach, with 333 NFL victories and six Lombardi Trophies, aims to elevate a Carolina roster that’s essentially brand new.

Belichick’s team has 70 new players, including 40 or so from the transfer portal.

UNC won six games last season, and its 2025 win total is set at [O/U] 7.5. Expectations might be naturally unfair given Belichick’s résumé, but Indiana’s run to last year’s College Football Playoff has Chapel Hillians excited.

Remember, the Hoosiers went from 3-9 to 11-1 in one swoop.

“It’s very difficult to do what [Curt] Cignetti did at Indiana,” legendary Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White told me. “It’s almost impossible to change everything that quickly in one year and have that much success.”

White focuses on his power ratings, a system he learned from his father Pete around the fifth grade. A “100” rating is an average team. He creates his point spreads by subtracting the lower team’s score from the higher team’s score.

So, if a 107-point team is facing a 101-point team on a neutral field, the line is -6.

“I ended last season with North Carolina at a 109,” White said. “I’ll start in the low 100s this year and pay close attention to the talent level over the first couple of weeks. If the potential is there, Belichick should improve that team from week to week faster than any coach in the ACC aside from Dabo.

“I try not to downgrade teams too much in the first couple games unless it’s blatantly obvious something is very wrong,” he continued. “But if a team plays really well the first two weeks, I’ve gotta be quicker to move their number at that point more than any other time during the season.”

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White vividly remembers tinkering with the New England Patriots’ defensive numbers during Belichick’s Hall of Fame run in Foxboro. Even if he was relatively high on that side of the ball in Week 1, the defense usually improved.

“I upgraded the Patriots defense almost every year throughout the season,” White admitted. “He was such a lethal defensive mind, and he figured out how to maximize his players and scheme over the course of five months.

“On offense, Belichick likes the strategy of passing to take the lead and running to melt the clock. That led to a bunch of Overs in first halves and Unders in second halves. It was that way for years.”

After dominating young quarterbacks and rookies at the NFL level, Belichick’s staff must now help nurture a young quarterback of their own.

South Alabama transfer Gio Lopez is currently QB1 for the Heels, and he threw for 2,559 yards and 18 touchdowns in 11 games last year. Lopez can boogie, too, evidenced by his 463 rushing yards and seven ground scores.

Carolina fans are hopeful Lopez will develop under Belichick, as is the case with most of the players. Development is one of the most common words you hear from anybody close to the Tar Heels football program.

“Multiple sportsbooks are reporting that North Carolina Under 7.5 wins is one of the most popular tickets across the country. Bettors don’t believe Belichick can balance a roster with question marks, not to mention some of the off-the-field distractions.”

Time will tell.

“He should be able to demoralize young quarterbacks,” White cracked. “They’ll take some licks, for sure, but I’m more optimistic than most people that he can turn this thing around pretty quickly.”

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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