Oregon vs. Penn State Betting Odds, Player Props, Best Bets: PSU Favored

No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 3 Penn State is not the only must-see Week 5 college football matchup this weekend, but for me, it’s the biggest.

This rematch of last year’s Big Ten Championship Game promises to have something for everyone. The Ducks won that one, 45-37, as Dillon Gabriel and Oregon outdueled Drew Allar and Penn State in a contest that the Ducks led 28-10 early before holding on thanks to a late interception by Nikko Reed.

Oregon went on to lose to Ohio State in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, while Penn State beat SMU and Boise State in the CFP before losing to Notre Dame in the national semifinals.

Based on what we’ve seen so far this season, it’s tough to get a read on either the Ducks or the Nittany Lions, as both opened the season against weak competition.

How To Watch Oregon Ducks vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. EDT
• TV: NBC/Peacock

Oregon vs. Penn State Odds: Spread, ML

Oregon vs. Penn State Betting News, Analysis

There’s plenty at stake for the Ducks, both Alabama and Georgia in the other primetime game this weekend, and several other teams across the country.

The pressure on Penn State is on another level, though.

That’s what happens when you combine a former five-star recruit with NFL-caliber size and arm strength at quarterback (Drew Allar) with a 12th-year head coach who has compiled an incredible resume that only lacks for big wins over top-10 opponents (James Franklin).

The Nittany Lions also made Jim Knowles the highest-paid defensive coordinator in college football history this offseason, signing him to a reported $3.1M-per-year contract, according to ESPN.

Franklin — as you may definitely have heard — is 104-42 overall as head coach of Penn State, but just 4-18 against Ohio State, Michigan and Oregon.

Last fall, in Year 3 under head coach Dan Lanning, the Ducks won the Big Ten and beat Ohio State in the regular season in a remarkable debut campaign in their new conference.

They’ve gone 39-6 with Lanning at the helm. Despite losing 10 players from last year’s squad to the 2025 NFL Draft, the Ducks are currently the top-ranked team in the country, per ESPN’s SP+ (just ahead of No. 2 Penn State).

Oregon Ducks Futures Odds, Betting News, Players To Watch

• Big Ten winner odds (DK): +260 (second-shortest)
• National title winner odds (FD): +700 (third-shortest)
• Odds to make CFP (FD): Yes -320; No +245

This offseason, Oregon had to replace QB Dillon Gabriel and nine other players who were drafted last spring, but the Ducks haven’t missed a beat so far.

Highly touted true freshman wide receiver Dakorien Moore (12 catches, 207 yards, 2 touchdowns) already looks like one of the most dangerous targets in college football. The Oregon O-line, which features several high-profile transfers, is off to a dominant start, and star linebacker Bryce Boettcher leads a solid defense that is allowing just 9.3 points per game and 228.8 yards per game.

Another Oregon Duck to keep an eye on is explosive tight end Kenyon Sadiq. He’s averaging over 17 yards per catch on nine catches this season, and both of his receptions vs. PSU in the 2024 Big Ten title game went for TDs.

Saturday night will be the bigest test of redshirt sophomore QB Dante Moore’s career, and his play in this game and beyond will likely determine whether Oregon can return to the CFP. Moore began his career at UCLA and struggled as a true freshman in 2023, but he’s off to a lights-out start to his first year at the helm in Eugene. Moore is completing nearly 75 percent of his passes, with 962 yards passing and 11 TDs, with just one sack and one interception in 96 dropbacks.

For reference, against significantly worse early-season competition this fall, Allar has completed just under 65 percent of his passes, with 4 TDs, 1 interception and three sacks in five fewer dropbacks.

Penn State Futures Odds, Betting News, Players To Watch

• Big Ten winner odds (DK): +280 (third-shortest)
• National title winner odds (FD): +650 (second-shortest)
• Odds to make CFP (FD): Yes -355; No +270

Penn State clearly set its schedule up to maximize its chances of winning this game. The Nittany Lions opened with Nevada, FIU and Villanova, then enjoyed their first bye week of the season in Week 4.

Penn State has been dominant on the scoreboard, but a passing offense that was overly dependent on star tight end Tyler Warren last year has not looked great. Allar completed less than 58 percent of his passes against both FIU and Villanova, and he’s yet to throw for more than 217 yards — though it is worth noting that he didn’t need to show out for PSU to win those games comfortably.

Penn State does have arguably the best running back combo in the country. Seniors Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen have both averaged well over 5 yards per carry across 500-plus rushing attempts over the last four seasons. With Singleton and Allen running behind an O-line returning four starters, it’s hard to imagine Penn State not having one of the best running games in the country.

The Nittany Lions defense lost superstar DE Abdul Carter to the NFL Draft, but this D-line still features a likely first-round pass rusher in Dani Dennis-Sutton, and the Knowles-led D features several other proven veterans at linebacker and in the secondary.

The biggest question against top competition like Oregon is the passing game. In addition to Allar’s well-documented struggles against elite defenses, Penn State’s pass catchers are a question mark. Starting WRs Kyron Hudson, Trebor Pena and Devonte Ross all arrived as big gets from the transfer portal, but those three have combined for just 32 catches in three gams.

Best Oregon vs. Penn State Player Prop Bets

Allar (understandably) targeted Warren more than anyone in 2024, and another tight end, Luke Reynolds, is emerging as his favorite target this fall.

Reynolds has hauled in 11 total catches in Penn State’s last two games, and he had three total catches in last year’s CFP matchups vs. Boise State and Notre Dame.

At nearly even-money to record four catches, Reynolds is a solid prop play on the Penn State side of the equation.

Oregon has spread the wealth through four weeks (eight Ducks already have recorded 10 rushing attempts, and seven receivers already have five catches).

That makes it hard to know which Ducks to target, but at longer than 2-to-1 odds, electric freshman WR Dakorien Moore is tempting on the anytime touchdown market. His two scores include a contested, 22-yard backshoulder grab vs. Oregon State last week and a 65-yard bomb vs. Oklahoma State.

If you’re looking for another ATTD play, why not check out Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq. He has just six career touchdown passes in three years, but he’s found the end zone in five of Oregon’s last six games, including last year’s Big Ten title game and CFP quarterfinal matchup vs. Ohio State.

Best prop bets for Oregon vs. Penn State:

• PSU TE Luke Reynolds 4+ receptions (-104 at DK) — 0.75 units
• Oregon WR Dakorien Moore ATTD (+210 at FD, DK) — 0.25 units
• Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq ATTD (+210 at FD) — 0.25 units

Oregon vs. Penn State Prediction, Best Bets

Leaving Franklin’s history in games like these aside, Allar’s track record against top-10 opponents makes it tough to trust the Nittany Lions to win this one, much less cover at -3.5.

To be fair, Allar did not make a ton of plays in his team’s comeback win on the road in OT at USC a year ago, but that was against a Trojans team that finished the year 7-6 and gave up 24.1 points per game.

Allar completed 12-of-20 passing attempts for less than 150 yards vs. Ohio State last year, with 0 TDs, 1 interception and 2 sacks. One bad game against an elite defense like the Buckeyes’ would have been excusable. That performance, however, followed ugly outings vs. OSU, Michigan and Ole Miss in 2023.

Against Oregon in the 2024 Big Ten Championship Game, Allar had solid counting stats (226 yards passing, 54 yards rushing and four total TDs), but threw two picks and completed just 51 percent of his passes.

Later last year, with an NFL tight end in Tyler Warren and an excellent running game, Allar threw for a total of three touchdowns and took eight sacks in his team’s three CFP games.

He completed under 60 percent of his passes in each one of those games. His performance against Notre Dame in the CFP semifinals (12-for-23 for 135 yards, 0 touchdowns and a backbreaking interception) only increased the skepticism of whether he can get it done in games like this.

On paper, Penn State has the pieces to get over the hump vs. Oregon and/or in the other top-10 matchups later on its schedule. But raucous Beaver Stadium crowd and all, I don’t see how the Nittany Lions cover this spread without owning both lines of scrimmage, and I don’t expect that to happen against Dan Lanning’s always-physical Ducks.

Oregon-Penn State Best Bets

The question is whether to take Oregon +3.5 or on the moneyline. For me, the answer is the Ducks on the moneyline in a breakout game for Dante Moore and the reigning Big Ten champs.

Another safe way to back the underdogs is to take them to win the first quarter against a Penn State offense that might find its groove late, but has given us little reason to believe it’s going to start hot.

• Oregon moneyline (+154 at DK) — 1 unit
• Oregon 1Q ML (+120 at DK, FD) — 0.5 units

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