Democratic nominee for governor in Virginia, Abigail Spanberger, is up 9 points over Republican nominee Winsome Earle-Sears, according to a new poll published on Thursday.
Why It Matters
The odd-year Virginia governor’s race is widely regarded as a bellwether for national politics, with both parties closely monitoring the outcome. Virginia has often elected a governor from the opposite party of the White House and while the state has steadily moved more toward Democrats, recent elections have revealed a dynamic political landscape.
In 2021, Republican Glenn Youngkin narrowly defeated Democrat Terry McAuliffe, marking a shift after several years of Democratic leadership. The 2025 race will not only determine Virginia’s executive leadership but could also signal trends heading into the 2026 midterms, as analysts watch whether Democrats can gain momentum or if Republicans can retain majorities.
What To Know
In the poll by Suffolk University, Spanberger has 51.8 percent of the vote and Earle-Sears has 43.2 percent of the vote. The poll shows that 3.4 percent were undecided.
The numbers fall outside of the poll’s 4.4 percent margin of error. The poll surveyed 500 likely Virginia general election voters from October 19 to October 21.
The survey shows that Spanberger has a 50.8 percent favorability rating versus a 39.4 percent unfavorable rating. Earle-Sears landed a 38.8 percent favorability rating compared to a 46 percent unfavorable rating.
Although Spanberger’s lead has remained consistent in most major surveys, some polls, such as the latest from Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU), have shown a slightly narrower margin of 49 percent to 42 percent. Other recent polls show leads for Spanberger ranging from five to ten points.
What People Are Saying
Trump on Truth Social on Wednesday: “For all of those people voting in New Jersey and Virginia for Governor, Attorney General, or any other position, please remember this: A REPUBLICAN VOTE MEANS A DRASTIC DROP IN ENERGY PRICES AND ENERGY COSTS, A DROP LIKE YOU’VE NEVER SEEN BEFORE! — A DEMOCRAT VOTE MEANS A DOUBLING, AND EVEN TRIPLING, OF YOUR ENERGY BILLS AND PRICES, TRADITIONALLY THE HIGHEST COST OF AN AMERICAN CITIZEN! So, if you vote Republican, your Energy Costs are going to go down, tremendously! If you vote Democrat, your Energy Costs are going to go ‘through the roof,’ making Energy virtually unaffordable for you and your family to pay. Also, remember, that if you don’t go to the Polls and VOTE, it’s the same thing as voting for a Democrat. SO, GO TO THE POLLS AND CUT YOUR ENERGY COSTS IN HALF!”
D. Stephen Voss, political science professor at the University of Kentucky, to Newsweek via email on Thursday: “We’ve seen polls with the two gubernatorial candidates neck and neck, and we’ve seen polls like this one showing Spanberger with a healthier advantage, but that sort of bouncing around is to be expected even if nothing much has changed. The electorate may not swing back and forth so dramatically, but because they rely on samples taken in various ways, polls naturally move around a lot. (When election experts get suspicious is if they see a series of polls with results that are all practically the same, because that can be a sign the pollsters are herding together around a conventional wisdom.)”
Voss continued: “The polls we’ve been seeing suggest that Spanberger has held a steady lead, with perhaps a bit of temporary slippage due to her ticket mate’s text-message scandal. So far, Earle-Sears has struggled to transform the contest in any durable way.”
Earle-Sears on X on Wednesday: “Abigail Spanberger voted against parents knowing if their child is being transitioned, falling behind, or facing violence. I’ll always stand with parents. Abigail never will.”
Spanberger on X on Thursday: “It’s 2025 — and yet my opponent wants to ban abortion with no exceptions for rape or incest. That kind of agenda is too extreme — and we will not allow that to happen in Virginia.”
What Happens Next
The general election for Virginia governor is scheduled for November 4, 2025. Both parties are mobilizing get-out-the-vote operations as early ballots continue to be cast.
