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Let’s open this week’s email with a quick look back at last night’s romp by the Chargers, who beat the Vikings 37-10 on TNF.
It’s officially time to worry about the Vikings after another ugly performance by their offense.
To me, though, last night was all about the Chargers. Did the return of tackle Joe Alt just solve all of the problems that they dealt with in Weeks 4-7??
For 60 minutes, L.A. looked like the team that started the year 3-0 (and not the one that lost to the Giants, Commanders, and Colts — and struggled with the Dolphins).
Now, let’s dive into a lighter weekend, with six teams on the bye (DET, LV, LAR, AZ, SEA, JAX), no early-morning international game on Sunday and one MNF matchup.
For my ATS picks for all 13 NFL games this weekend, click the link below:
NFL Week 8 Early Picks Against The Spread
Early Thoughts On Packers vs. Steelers On Sunday Night Football
The matchup: Packers (-3) at Steelers — 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
A week after whiffing badly on the Sunday Night Football matchup between the Falcons and the 49ers (I still can’t believe Atlanta only scored 10 points in that one), I’m once again bullish on the road team on SNF.
I have a feeling the Steelers’ 4-1 start is going to be a head-scratching footnote by the time the calendar turns to December. Beating New England was legitimately impressive — especially in hindsight — but the victories over the Jets, Vikings and Browns inflated this team’s record.
Last week, Pittsburgh had its worst defensive performance of the season. With the Packers, Colts, Chargers and Bengals (again) up next on the schedule, Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers will either cement their status as contenders over the next four weeks, or they’ll be in danger of missing the playoffs.
The Packers (4-1-1) are developing a bad habit of letting teams hang around. They once again needed some fourth-quarter heroics to hold on against Arizona last Sunday. QB Jordan Love should have a big night vs. Pittsburgh, though. The Steelers veteran D struggled to stop either the pass or the run vs. the Joe Flacco-led Bengals last Thursday night.
Defensively, Green Bay should be able to get after Rodgers, especially if it can jump out to an early lead and force Pittsburgh to air it out. Rodgers was pressured on 24 percent of his dropbacks vs. Minnesota and 40 percent (!) of them vs. Seattle, which speaks to the Pittsburgh O-line’s struggles against top pass-rushing defenses.
Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley is only blitzing opposing quarterbacks on less than 20 percent of their dropbacks (one of the lowest blitz rates in the league), but this team is top 10 in pressure rate, at 23.7 percent.
Much has (understandably) been made about Rodgers vs. Green Bay. To me, though, this game is more about how the Steelers’ offensive line and secondary hold up in a tough matchup for the home team.
Best bets:
- Packers -3 (-105 at DraftKings)
🔥 Take Of The Week: The Dolphins Are Done
Last week, I filled this space by making the case that the Bengals were not done.
This time, I’m going to focus on a team whose situation is likely going to get worse before it gets better.
Speculation has been building ever since the start of the season about Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel’s job status, and last week’s 31-6 loss to Cleveland marked a new low.
There are a few struggling teams around the league that I expect to remain competitive every week, including the Titans and Jets. But right now, the Fins aren’t one of them.
Struggling to move the ball vs. Cleveland in adverse conditions was understandable, but gaining just 12 first downs, while committing four turnovers, in a 25-point loss to a 2-5 team seemed like a waving of the white flag.
What that means for the next couple of weeks*, IMO, is that taking whoever’s playing the Dolphins could be easy money, starting with the Falcons at -7.5 on Sunday.
Tua Tagovailoa is coming off easily the worst game of his six-year career, and whether it’s Tua or seventh-round rookie Quinn Ewers under center in Atlanta, I expect a long day for this offense. The Falcons are 2-1 at home, with a close loss to the Buccaneers and wins over the Commanders and Bills.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Atlanta win this game by two touchdowns, and the Ravens (-7.5) over the Dolphins in next Thursday night’s game is one of my favorite Week 9 lookahead bets. Week 10 lookahead lines are not yet available, but right now, Buffalo to cover vs. Miami feels like another no-brainer (again, assuming no coaching change has taken place).
*If and when a coaching change takes place, we’ll have to reconsider this.
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