A chalky* Week 9 wraps up with the Chiefs (4-3) as heavy home favorites over the Commanders (3-4).
Washington visits Arrowhead Stadium with Marcus Mariota set to start in place of 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels for the third time this season.
Kansas City (4-3) has been red-hot in recent weeks, especially on offense, after starting the year with losses to the Chargers and Eagles. After dominant wins over the Lions and Raiders the last two weeks, oddsmakers currently list the Chiefs as the clear favorites to win Super Bowl 60.
Right now, KC’s Super Bowl winner odds are exactly 5-to-1 at DraftKings, FanDuel and bet365.
After losing three of their last four games, the Commanders, on the other hand, are currently 3-to-1 or longer to make the playoffs at DK (+300), FD (+340) and bet365 (+320).
* So far in Week 8, the betting favorites have gone 10-2 ATS, while the over has cashed in 9 of 12 games, according to BetMGM’s John Ewing.
How To Watch Commanders vs. Chiefs
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- TV: ABC, ESPN
Commanders vs. Chiefs Betting Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total
Commanders vs. Chiefs Injury News, Betting Analysis
Latest Washington Commanders Injury News, Impact (Monday, October 27)
The biggest name on the injury report, obviously, is Daniels. The fact that Mariota is set to make his third start of the season in late October is a big reason the Commanders — who lost just five games in all of 2024 — are below .500 right now.
Mariota played well in his first start, a Week 3 thumping of the Raiders. He struggled the following week in a 34-27 loss to Atlanta, though, completing just 16 of 27 passes for 156 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception.
It’s worth noting that heading into Week 7, the Chiefs were favored by just 5.5 points on the Week 8 look-ahead line. But after the Chiefs’ blowout of the Raiders, the Commanders’ ugly loss to the Commander (and Daniels’ injury), oddsmakers had made Kansas City a 12.5 point favorite by last Monday morning.
The good news for Washington is that this roster is otherwise healthy. The return of top wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin should have a positive impact for an offense that only picked up 18 first downs vs. one of the worst defensive teams in the league, the Cowboys, last Sunday.
Latest Kansas City Chiefs Injury News, Impact (Monday, October 27)
The Chiefs will be missing at least one starter on the offensive line, as Josh Simmons (personal matter) is set to miss his third consecutive game. Against the Lions and the Raiders the last two weeks, backup Jaylon Moore helped the Kansas City OL allow a total of just 12 pressures across 65 pass attempts.
Tonight, with Pro Bowl guard Trey Smith doubtful (back), keeping the pocket clean for Mahomes could be a bigger challenge. Mike Caliendo, who started three games for Kansas City in 2024, is expected to start in place of Smith.
The Chiefs are expected to have every other starter in action tonight.
Commanders vs. Chiefs Prediction, Best Bets
Against a Commanders D that is bottom 10 in the league in yards per play allowed (5.8) and has only forced three turnovers, the Chiefs should once again be able to move the ball with ease. Remember, while the Chiefs lost to the Jags in Week 5, they picked up 476 yards of total offense in that game. They’ve now strung together four excellent offensive showings in a row.
The Commanders boast one of the best rushing attacks in the league. In fact, no team in the NFL averages more yards per carry than Washington’s 5.4. The Washington running game even remained effective when Daniels missed Weeks 3 and 4.
Tonight, however, I expect the Chiefs to make Mariota beat them with his arm, even if that requires a few extra bodies in the box.
No, the KC run D has not been quite as strong through seven weeks as it was throughout 2024 (the Chiefs are allowing 4.5 yards per carry this year, up from 4.1 ypc last year). Still, as Jahmyr Gibbs — who is averaging 5.1 ypc on the year but gained just 65 yards on 17 carries vs. Kansas City in Week 6 — and Ashton Jeanty (21 yards on 6 carries vs. KC last Sunday) can attest, this remains a solid defense against the run.
A Chiefs win by 14 points feels like the most likely outcome tonight (and an even more dominant showing by Kansas City wouldn’t shock me), making this a rare case where I’d recommend laying double-digit points with the favorite.
If that doesn’t sound tempting, also consider the Chiefs to cover the first-half spread of -6.5 and/or go over their team total of 30.5 points. In fact, the Chiefs to go over their alt team total of 34.5 is also difficult to resist, especially at 2-to-1 odds.
Best bets:
- Chiefs -10 (-115 at DraftKings) — 1 unit
- Chiefs First Half -6.5 (-110 at FanDue) — 1 unit
- Chiefs Alt Team Total Over 34.5 (+200 at DraftKings) — 0.5 units
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