Orange at times, blue at others

The “Election Monitor” was developed by local politician Venczel Varjasi. The map of the 106 constituencies shows Fidesz dominance in shades of orange, nuanced tones of blue indicating a lead for Tisza, and grey marking the most fiercely contested constituencies with uncertain outcomes, including Győr and Kecskemét.

This analysis is not made any easier by the significant discrepancies in opinion polls depending on the political alignment of the polling institutes. Government-critical polling institutes generally expect a comfortable majority for Péter Magyar’s Tisza, in some cases even a two-thirds majority. On the government side, meanwhile, polls see Fidesz-KDNP coming very close to its 2022 result. According to surveys conducted by institutes close to Tisza, the party would win 62 of the 106 constituencies, while Fidesz, on its own “home turf,” could secure as many as 80 constituencies.

On one point, however, all major institutes agree: other parties have virtually no chance of winning direct mandates. Nevertheless, 7–8 seats in the next parliament would be allocated via national party lists to the right-wing Mi Hazánk as well as to representatives of the German minority and the Roma. In surveys conducted within their respective political camps, Tisza would obtain a majority of 109 out of 199 seats, while Fidesz-KDNP would capture as many as 126 seats according to their own aligned polls. In both cases the victory would be clear, though short of a two-thirds majority.

By simply averaging the various polling figures, the “Election Monitor” concluded at its launch a week ago that the incumbent governing parties would narrowly miss an absolute majority with 99 mandates. Under this calculation, Tisza would secure 93 seats and Mi Hazánk 5 mandates. As a result, Fidesz could form a somewhat fragile government together with the right-wing party or with representatives of the national minorities.

The election outcome appears more open than it has in years, which is why the “Election Monitor” delves deeper with an analysis of individual constituencies. Tisza is likely to sweep Budapest and its metropolitan area, and could also win cities such as Pécs and Szeged. To achieve overall victory, however, the leading opposition force would need to win all six of the most hotly contested constituencies — where the differences are less than two percentage points — and additionally flip at least two more constituencies in which Fidesz currently leads by less than four percentage points in the polls. There are ten such constituencies nationwide, with the most likely “surprises” in Balatonfüred and Salgótarján. The most fiercely contested districts are located in Győr and its surroundings, in Zalaegerszeg, Nagykanizsa, Székesfehérvár, Szekszárd and Orosháza.

The “Election Monitor” is updated after each newly published survey. At the time of writing, Fidesz-KDNP’s lead had shrunk to 96 mandates, while Tisza had narrowed the gap to 95 mandates, with Mi Hazánk remaining at 6 seats. Nationwide, the party of challenger Péter Magyar stands at 44.2% of the vote, just over two percentage points ahead of Fidesz, while Mi Hazánk, at 5.7%, appears certain to enter the next parliament. However, the left-liberal DK, currently polling at 4.3%, could still cause some disruption. The satirical MKKP (currently 3.5%) should not yet be written off either.

Artificial intelligence was used for the translation of parts of the original German text.