The U.S. has lifted shelter-in-place orders for its citizens in Mexico, which it issued because of the unrest that followed the death of a cartel leader, but a security expert has told Newsweek there could be further violence in the coming weeks.
U.S. Embassy and Consulates in Mexico issued the alert after violence broke out on Sunday following a Mexican military operation that killed Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) who was also known as “El Mencho.”
The U.S. issued shelter-in-place directives for cities, which included vacation hot spots such as Cancun, Cozumel and Tijuana, prompting many American citizens to contact the U.S. State Department and lawmakers for advice about leaving Mexico.
The U.S. mission in Mexico said in a statement on Tuesday that American citizens were no longer urged to shelter in place. Flights from Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta have returned to normal, the statement added.
However, U.S. government staff in Guadalajara, Puerto Vallarta, Ciudad Guzman and Tijuana are subject to a nighttime curfew. American government workers in Jalisco state and Monterrey have been directed to remain inside their metropolitan areas.
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Mexican security forces killed Cervantes during an operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco state, on Sunday along with other CJNG members, sparking clashes and retaliatory actions by the criminal organization throughout the country.
These included roadblocks and arson attacks against businesses in at least 20 states, reflecting the cartel’s operational reach, said Sandra Pellegrini, a senior analyst for Latin America for ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data).
Clashes between the cartel and security forces have killed dozens of security officers in actions that show the wider and deadlier use of explosive-laden drones by criminal groups in Mexico, Pellegrini added. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Tuesday that the situation had calmed, but there are concerns over whether the calm will last.
“The cartel’s potential to target security infrastructure signals organizational resilience that could lead to the proliferation of deadly clashes with state forces in the coming weeks,” Pellegrini said.
There have been heightened security operations since the beginning of Sheinbaum’s mandate in October 2024, with clashes between Mexican security forces and non-state armed groups increasing by 26 percent in 2025 compared with the previous year.
Mexico’s security efforts follow U.S. pressure to curb drug trafficking and migration flows through threats of tariffs and military intervention, and Sheinbaum has emphasized collaboration with the U.S. rather than confrontation. According to reports, the U.S. contributed to the operation against Cervantes by providing intelligence.
Pellegrini said Cervantes’ killing raises the risks of a power struggle among CJNG’s leadership that could translate into violence.
Rival groups may also seek to exploit any perceived destabilization within the cartel to push for territorial control, she added, especially in states that are highly disputed by the CJNG and other criminal groups, such as Michoacan, Guanajuato and Guerrero.
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