Another premier college basketball game is on tap for Friday night, as the Michigan Wolverines visit the Illinois Fighting Illini in this clash of top-10 teams.
Michigan is a 2-point road favorite with a high total of 157.5, an indication of the fireworks expected.
Michigan would clinch the Big Ten title outright with a win Friday night and is looking to snap a nine-game losing streak to Illinois.
For the Illini, they are looking to cement their chances at a 2-seed when the NCAA Tournament starts in a few weeks.
Let’s take a look at this matchup and find a best bet.
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I think we’re looking at a high-scoring game here, one that likely goes over the total of 157.5 — but my best bet here is Illinois +2.
Illinois is elite offensively, first in the country according to KenPom and plays a style that will test Michigan and draw the Wolverines’ outstanding big men away from the rim on defense.
The Illini have five players who have attempted over 100 3-pointers this season, which is an indication of the skill and shooting they possess from everyone on the floor. They are also elite from the foul line, shooting just under 80%, a mark that’s 20th in the nation.
Michigan ranks 152nd in free throw percentage, posting a modest 72.5% from the charity stripe. That disparity could mean something in a close game.
Illinois is undervalued. When looking at its record, you will see three February losses. But each of those losses came in overtime — coin flip games that if they went the other way, Illinois might be favored tonight at home.
It is scary to bet against Michigan, but the best offense in the country getting points at home is too tempting for me to pass up. Illinois is due a bit of better luck in close games, and this is a favorable matchup.
In what could be a Final Four preview, I like Illinois as a home ‘dog.
PICK: Illinois (+2) to lose by fewer than 2 points or win outright
