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Argentina vs. Canada Pick: Best Bets for Copa America Semifinal


The semifinals of the 2024 Copa America feature a coin flip on Wednesday night in Charlotte, NC, between Colombia and Uruguay. But before the big clash between James Rodriguez and Darwin Nunez, Argentina meet Canada in a rematch of the Copa America opener.

Oddsmakers don’t give Canada much of a chance in Tuesday night’s semifinal at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ. It’s worth noting, though, that Canada played well against Argentina when these teams met on June 20 in Atlanta.

Keep in mind that Copa America quarterfinal and semifinal matches do not feature extra time. That means that if Canada and Argentina are tied after 90 minutes, plus stoppage time, they’ll head straight to penalty kicks, which decided three of this competition’s four quarterfinal matches.

Tuesday’s game kicks off at 8 p.m. ET on FS1.

Argentina vs. Canada Moneyline Odds

The three-way moneyline odds below apply to the result after 90 minutes (plus stoppage time).

BetMGM FanDuel DraftKings ESPN BET bet365
Argentina -300 -310 -295 -310 -300
Draw +400 +400 +390 +400 +400
Canada +850 +1000 +950 +750 +900

In single-elimination tournament games like this one, sportsbooks also offer “to advance” odds for anyone interested in simply picking the winner (regardless of how they get it done).

Argentina vs. Canada “To Advance” Odds

BetMGM FanDuel DraftKings ESPN BET bet365
Argentina -550 -750 -700 -600 -700
Canada +380 +420 +450 +400 +450

Argentina vs. Canada Betting Analysis

Obviously, no one should be surprised if Argentina routs Canada. That being said, while Argentina have controlled their matches, their opponents have managed to stay within reach until the dying minutes. Against Ecuador, who took the reigning World Cup champs to PKs, that nearly proved costly.

The underdogs held up for a half when these teams met in group play, but Argentina finally broke through with a goal in the 49th minute by Julian Alvarez, followed by a game-sealing finish by Lautaro Martinez after a perfect pass from Lionel Messi in the 88th.

Jesse Marsch’s side have shown no interest in this tournament in packing 10 men behind the ball and hoping for a 0-0 result, which is often how underdogs approach juggernauts like Argentina.

Canada’s aggressive pressing has paid off, as they’ve allowed just one goal in their last three matches (against Peru, Chile and Venezuela).

Which Version of Lionel Messi Will We See?

A scary thought for the other teams in Copa America is that Argentina have made it to this point with limited contributions from their biggest star. Messi has just one goal, with zero assists, in the three matches he’s played (he sat the group stage finale against Peru).

He hasn’t looked 100% healthy, and he even missed his PK in the shootout against Ecuador, as his Panenka bounced harmlessly off the crossbar.

Hot take: If Messi returns to form against Canada, it’s hard to see this one staying competitive. And even if he’s limited, Canada would need an outstanding performance — and probably quite a bit of luck — to pull off the upset.

Argentina vs. Canada Prediction, Best Bets

Argentina have not exactly been cruising in this tournament, but after narrowly avoiding disaster against Ecuador, they should be able to handle Canada.

The underdogs deserve credit for refusing to passively sit back, but their high press could play right into Argentina’s hands, especially if Messi and Co. get as many opportunities in space as they did in the previous meeting between these teams.

Argentina scored just one goal in the first 87 minutes of that game, but allowing Argentina 65% of possession and anywhere near 19 shots (eight on target) again is a great way for Canada to get run off the pitch.

Prediction: Argentina 2, Canada 0

Best bets: Argentina spread (regular time) -1.5 (-105 at DraftKings); Argentina win to zero (-130)

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