Tonight’s primetime battle between the Chargers (8-4) and the Eagles (8-4) is a tricky one for player props bettors, as both the L.A. and Philly offenses have had their struggles in recent weeks.
Against a good Chargers D — and without star right tackle Lane Johnson — can the Eagles get back on the right track after losing to the Cowboys and Bears the last two weeks?
For L.A., the question is whether Justin Herbert, who is listed as questionable but expected to play, will have time to find receivers downfield. Shaky pass protection has been a major issue for the Chargers amid the absences of starting tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt. Even without Jalen Carter tonight (shoulder), the Eagles’ talented front seven could cause some problems for Herbert and Co.
While I don’t expect a shootout (for the record, neither do oddsmakers; the total is set at just 41.5), I do expect a solid rushing night by Justin Herbert and a commitment to the ground game by Philly, which makes Saquon Barkley a tempting bet to go over his rushing yardage total.
Justin Herbert Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-111 at DK) — 0.5 units
Bear with me as I make the case for a banged-up quarterback to make plays with his legs against a good defense. Candidly, I’m throwing this out there somewhat by default, as it’s hard to figure out who will get the bulk of the carries for a Chargers backfield that is projected to have Omarion Hampton, Hassan Haskins and Kimani Vidal all in action.
What I do feel confident in is the Eagles’ pass rush forcing Herbert out of the pocket, even though he he’s only run the ball six times for a total of 29 yards over the last two weeks. Still, the fact that Herbert has cashed this prop nine times in 12 games this year makes it hard to resist, especially in a buy-low spot like this one.
While he only ran for 8 yards last Sunday, he had reached at least 19 yards rushing in five straight games before Week 13.
On a night when I’m not sure who to target on the L.A. side, let’s go with a half-unit on Herbert to use his legs with at least some success.
Saquon Barkley Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-112 at FD) — 0.5 units
This one doesn’t quite feel like a lock to me, either, but I do expect Philly to heavily feature Barkley and the running game against one of the best passing defenses in the NFL.
The Chargers have held their last five opponents to under 160 yards through the air, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see this outstanding secondary limit Jalen Hurts to another underwhelming night.
L.A. is allowing 4.5 yards per carry, though, and it was gashed by Jacksonville for nearly 200 yards on the ground just two weeks ago.
The bad day by the rushing D in Jacksonville was an outlier amid a good recent stretch, as L.A. has held four of its last five opponents to less than 90 yards on the ground. But earlier this season, the Chargers struggled to stop the run against the Giants, Commanders, Dolphins and Colts. If this game is as low-scoring as expected, the Eagles should be able to keep feeding Barkley from start to finish, even if L.A.’s run D holds up early.
This is a roll of the dice given that Barkley has only run for 70 yards or more three times this year, but the game script should be favorable, and it would make sense for the Eagles to heavily feature Barkley after going pass-heavy with little success in losses the last two weeks (Philly had 40 dropbacks and 18 rushing attempts in the Week 12 loss to the Cowboys, and it had 34 passing attempts and just 17 rushes in last week’s loss to the Bears).
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