Best Thunder vs. Pistons Player Prop Bets, ATS Picks: Detroit Heavy Home Favorite

The biggest NBA matchup on tap tonight — Thunder vs. Pistons at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN — is expected to be a struggle for the reigning champs, who will once again be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams.

With those two among several key pieces for OKC who are unavailable (Ajay Mitchell and Isaiah Hartenstein have also been ruled out, while Chet Holmgren and Alex Caruso are doubtful), this team is a double-digit underdog for the first time all year, per Teamrankings.com.

In fact, tonight marks just the third game of the season that the Thunder (45-14) have entered as an underdog. Amid mounting injuries, OKC was a 9.5-point underdog vs. the Spurs in a game it lost 116-106 on February 4. It notably won 121-113 as a 4.5-point dog vs. Cleveland on Sunday night, as seven players finished in double-figures.

The Pistons (42-14) enter tonight’s game with a 4.5-game lead on the Celtics atop the Eastern Conference standings, and they are 8-2 over their last 10 games despite a two-game suspension for Jalen Duren and an ongoing seven-game suspension of Isaiah Stewart.

How To Watch Thunder vs. Pistons

• Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Thunder vs. Pistons Betting Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

Best Thunder vs. Pistons Player Prop Bet

Jalen Duren Over 28.5 Points + Rebounds (-106 at FanDuel) — 0.5 units

Betting on Jalen Duren, who is averaging 18 points and 10.5 rebounds per game, has been consistently rewarding this season, especially in recent weeks. At first glance, tonight’s matchup vs. the Thunder looks like a great spot for this trend to continue.

Whether Holmgren is in action or not, with Hartenstein out of the mix, Duren — who just went for 25 points and 14 boards in 29 minutes vs. Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs earlier this week — will once again be a force in the paint this evening.

In his only other game since the All-Star Break, Duren had 26 points and 13 rebounds in 29 minutes against the Bulls on February 21. Between a short-lived injury concern, an ejection vs. the Hornets and a suspension, Duren’s last full game before his big night against the Bulls earlier this week came back in early February, when he finished with 19 points and 13 rebounds in 31 minutes vs. the Nuggets.

Dating all the way back to January 28, Duren has finished with at least 31 points + rebounds in six straight games in which he logged at least 24 minutes. He strikes me as a lock to cash this prop even if Holmgren suits up — and 35 or 40 total points + rebounds could be within reach if Holmgren is not in action.

Honestly, the biggest risk here might be this game getting out of hand. Given that a blowout would severely limit Duren’s playing time, let’s go with a half-unit play.

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