Byron Donalds’ Chances Against Casey DeSantis in Potential Primary: Poll

Florida Republicans prefer Congressman Byron Donalds by a wide margin over the state’s first lady Casey DeSantis when told that President Donald Trump has endorsed the congressman for governor, according to new polling results.

Newsweek reached out for comment to the Byrons campaign and the office of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis via email on Monday evening.

Why It Matters

Due to term limits, Ron DeSantis cannot run for reelection in the 2026 election. While speculation has been rampant that his wife Casey will attempt to keep the governor’s mansion in the family, no official announcement has been made concerning her potential candidacy.

Trump’s early endorsement of Donalds, coming before he even announced his candidacy, could give the congressman a significant advantage in a GOP primary race with Florida’s first lady despite her name recognition and support in the state for her husband’s governorship.

What To Know

An internal Donalds campaign poll conducted by Fabrizio Lee & Associates, led by Trump’s own campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio, found the congressman with a 34 percent to 30 percent lead over Casey DeSantis in a hypothetical gubernatorial primary race, according to a Monday report from Florida Politics.

However, when the pollster informed respondents that Trump had endorsed Donalds, the congressman’s lead over DeSantis grew to a massive 45 percent to 23 percent advantage. When told both that Trump endorsed Donalds and that Ron DeSantis endorsed his wife, respondents preferred the congressman by 38 percent to 28 percent.

Florida Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, a rumored Republican candidate, registered in a distant single-digit third place to Donalds and DeSantis. Nearly 30 percent of respondents were undecided. The poll was conducted among “likely” Florida GOP primary on February 26 and 27. It has a 5 percent margin of error.

Trump said Donalds would make “a truly Great and Powerful Governor for Florida” in a post to Truth Social last month, while adding that the congressman would have his “Complete and Total Endorsement” if he ran. The remarks seemingly had a major impact on Donalds, who officially announced his candidacy less than a week later.

While Ron DeSantis officially endorsed Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign after dropping his own ill-fated Republican primary bid, the governor’s relationship with the president deteriorated significantly since challenging him for the GOP nomination.

What People Are Saying

Fabrizio, in a statement shared with Florida Politics: “Much like the DeSantises’ fool’s errand in 2024 against President Trump where he got crushed, this data shows that the DeSantises would suffer a similar fate in Florida if Casey should run for Governor … The only real questions are: Will they betray President Trump again? And how many Tallahassee fools will follow them off the cliff a second time to do so?”

Ron DeSantis, commenting on speculation about his wife’s political future during a press conference late last month: “I will tell you this: I won by the biggest margin that any Republican has ever won a governor’s race here in Florida. She would do better than me, there’s no question about that. She’s somebody with the intestinal fortitude and the dedication to conservative principles that anything we’ve accomplished, she’d be able to take to the next level.”

What Happens Next

The Florida gubernatorial primary election is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. So far, Donalds is the only major candidate to officially announce a run.