California Independence Support Hits ‘Record High’

A new poll has found 44 percent of Californian adults would vote for the state to leave the United States and become a fully independent nation, which the Independent California Institute (ICI) told Newsweek is a “record high poll result for secession.”

Newsweek contacted California Governor Gavin Newsom for comment via email on Tuesday outside of regular office hours.

Why It Matters

California is both the wealthiest and most populous state in the Union, and if it was an independent country, it would have the fourth largest economy in the world, above Japan, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) 2024 World Economic Outlook data released in April.

Tensions between Newsom, the governor of a state that has recently leaned heavily Democratic, and the currently Republican federal government remain high, with President Donald Trump deploying 4,000 California National Guard troops and 700 Marines to Los Angeles in June after violent anti-immigration enforcement demonstrations broke out. This was done against the wishes of Governor Newsom, sparking a legal battle.

What To Know

Between June 11 and 23, YouGov polled 500 Californian adults for the ICI, a group that says it aims to “educate the public on greater self-governance for California.” The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.7 percent.

It found 44 percent of Californians would vote to “declare California’s intention to peacefully and legally withdraw from the United States, through negotiation with the federal government” while 54 percent said they would be opposed.

Speaking to Newsweek, ICI executive director Coyote Marin said “this is a record high poll result for secession,” citing 12 other polls conducted by Ipsos, SurveyUSA, YouGov and Zogby, which showed the previous high was 42 percent in a June 2021 YouGov survey.

The latest poll also found 50 percent of Californians said they trust state authorities in Sacramento more than the federal government in Washington D.C., with only 23 percent having the opposite view. This was a stark deterioration in the federal government’s position since the last ICI survey in January, which put the figures at 34 percent for Sacramento and 18 percent for Washington D.C. respectively.

In addition, 72 percent of Californians said they want state police to arrest federal immigration officials who “act maliciously or knowingly exceed their authority under federal law” while 80 percent want California to have stronger border controls “more like a country,” with checks for illegal guns and other contraband entering from other states.

Of those surveyed, 74 percent think there should be a pathway to state citizenship for long-term California residents who don’t hold American citizenship, and 71 percent think the state would be better off if it negotiated “special autonomous status” within the United States.

Earlier this month, during the row over unrest in Los Angeles, Newsom suggested California could withhold federal tax payments in response to reports of funding cuts from the Trump administration.

What People Are Saying

ICI executive director Coyote Marin said: “This is a record high poll result for secession. At the same time, it indicates that passing the Calexit [California exit] initiative or something similar would be a steep uphill climb, especially without special autonomous status as an option.”

Speaking to Newsweek, ICI vice chair Timothy Vollmer said: “Californians are ready to govern themselves and are focused on pragmatic solutions. We are ready.”

What Happens Next

While there are no immediate proposals for radical constitutional change, the survey indicates that most Californians want more power to be given to their state, possibly handing Newsom a tool in potential negotiations with the federal government.