Could ‘King’ Trump’s Royal Ties Help Win Him Peace in the Middle East?

President Donald Trump’s credentials as “king” may be up for debate following a controversial White House reference last month, but the U.S. leader’s ties to real-life monarchies in the Middle East may prove consequential in his quest to achieve peace in the region.

Now, as Arab leaders regroup from White House criticism of their latest plan to pave a new postwar path for the Gaza Strip, a moment of truth has dawned for the warm relationships Trump has long enjoyed with some of the wealthiest and most influential powers in the region, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.

And while the six-state Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) continues to oppose Trump’s vision to expel Palestinians and redevelop their conflict-ravaged territory into a premium resort destination, regional experts argue that the only sustainable course ultimately runs through Washington.

“The United States, as a global superpower, holds a significant and undeniable role in shaping international diplomacy and conflict resolution,” Ali Rashid Al Nuaimi, chair of the Hedayah counterterrorism think tank and the Defense Commission of the UAE Federal National Council’s Internal and External Relations Committee, told Newsweek. “It is a reality of the world order that no serious peace initiative can afford to overlook.”

“The current global system is built on the engagement of powerful nations, and the U.S. remains a central pillar within that structure,” he said. “Whether one agrees with its policies or not, its influence in global affairs is an established fact—one that must be acknowledged, respected, and strategically navigated.”

He argued that a sustainable path forward would have to take into account the region’s “intimate understanding of the roots of the conflict and the complexities that shape its trajectory,” while also recognizing the definitive sway the U.S. holds.

“Any sustainable peace plan must be informed by this local expertise while also recognizing that, without U.S. engagement, no initiative can gain the necessary traction to succeed,” Al Nuaimi said. “Even the most well-conceived regional plan would struggle to be effective without broader international backing.”

The Return of the ‘King’

Trump has previously demonstrated his ability to break through diplomatic impasses in the region. Months after the rollout of his failed “peace to prosperity” plan to reconcile the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the final year of his first term, the U.S. leader successfully brokered the Abraham Accords that resulted in the UAE and Bahrain normalizing ties with Israel in August 2020, with Sudan and Morocco later following suit.

Egypt and Jordan are the only other two Arab states to have forged formal relations with Israel, having established treaties in 1979 and 1994, respectively.

The landmark Abraham Accords, however, were predicated on the prospects for a new push for peace between Israelis and Palestinians. The initiative never materialized as President Joe Biden emerged victorious in a contentious election that took place shortly after.

U.S. relations with the GCC’s de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, cooled under the Biden administration, which clashed with Riyadh over human rights and oil production. Meanwhile, Israeli-Palestinian violence hit record levels, culminating in the October 2023 Hamas-led surprise attack on Israel that triggered the still-ongoing war.

As the conflict raged on, Biden outlined the three-phase agreement that stands today as the basis for the current ceasefire terms, but it was Trump who took credit for the deal after it was ultimately signed just days before he took office in January. In a seemingly unprecedented fashion, the incoming administration deployed its negotiators, with Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff at the helm, to work alongside Biden’s team in a move viewed by many as decisive in bringing the long-deadlocked talks across the finish line.

Trump’s return was met with cautious optimism across much of the Arabian Peninsula, where his realist, transactional style of diplomacy has earned him respect.

According to Faisal al-Shammari, a Saudi writer and political analyst, “Trump has a record that differs from previous American administrations, as he relied on the practical approach in dealing with the Kingdom, avoiding the ideological discourse that characterized some previous administrations.”

“What distinguishes Trump is his awareness of the importance of stability in the region, and his being more realistic in recognizing the Saudi role as a pivotal power not only in the Arab world, but also on the international scene,” Shammari told Newsweek. “This pragmatic approach contributed to the creation of opportunities for cooperation based on mutual interests, which requires strengthening through state institutions and not just personal relationships.”

Riyadh at the Crossroads

Saudi Arabia has indeed emerged as an increasingly influential player on the world stage. While the kingdom has long wielded a unique status given the ruling House of Saud’s custodianship over the two holiest sites in Islam and vast oil reserves, its rapidly growing economy, increasingly modern outlook and other sweeping changes under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s “Vision 2030” project have propelled the nation toward middle power status.

Like Trump, however, Saudi leadership sees its partnerships, even one as deep-rooted as its World War II-era pact with the U.S., as viable only as long as they were mutually beneficial.

“The relationship between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United States is historic, but not unconditional,” Shammari said. “The cooperation between Riyadh and Washington will always be based on the realization of mutual interests, and not according to prior assumptions that any American president is able alone to determine the course of this relationship.”

Trump is now testing this premise through his incendiary restructuring of the traditional U.S. approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, an issue that continues to ignite tempers throughout the Arab world.

With the White House now advertising a strategy that may once and for all decimate the waning support for a two-state solution, Shammari asserted that “the Gulf Cooperation Council has tools of pressure and influence that it can use to find a more balanced solution, especially by strengthening the paths of economic development in the West Bank, and working to ensure the stability of Gaza away from agendas that deepen the crises instead of solving them.”

Yet it’s not only Trump’s fixation on Gaza’s real estate potential that stands in the way of Arab attempts to preserve a path to Palestinian sovereignty. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared both Hamas and the West Bank-based Palestinian National Authority unfit to govern Gaza, and the Israeli Foreign Ministry also dismissed the Arab proposal of establishing an interim, independent Palestinian committee to lead the territory as insufficient in addressing Israeli security concerns.

Moreover, the Arab League-endorsed plan did not directly reference Hamas once in its 106 pages.

Azam al-Shdadi, a Saudi foreign affairs expert and member of the Kingston University Political Science Association, referred to Hamas as “one of the most prominent” challenges to realizing a two-state solution, and an issue that the GCC understands it must address.

“The events of October 7 have exacerbated the political and security situation, harmed the Palestinian cause, led to the deaths of many innocent victims, and made the international position towards the Palestinian cause more complicated,” Shdadi told Newsweek. “The Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia, realize that addressing this issue requires Palestinian unity and clear, non-extreme demands that can be implemented on the ground.”

‘The New Europe’

The stakes of the U.S.-GCC relationship today extend beyond the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has emerged as a central hub for the Trump administration’s talks with both sides of the Russia-Ukraine war, while Qatar and the UAE have also played outsized diplomatic roles in the conflict, negotiating the successful exchanges of displaced children and prisoners between Moscow and Kyiv.

At a time when U.S. ties with European allies were in crisis over the Trump administration’s pivot from confronting the Kremlin to securing peace, the White House may find more willing partners in “the new Europe,” as Crown Prince Mohammed has described his vision for the Middle East.

“These efforts contribute to supporting the positive American strategy, as Saudi Arabia is becoming a major global mediator in major international issues,” Shdadi said, “from the Iranian nuclear agreement to U.S.-China relations.”

Despite its historic proximity to Washington, the GCC has enthusiastically bolstered bonds with Beijing, viewing the People’s Republic as a vital economic partner. And while wary of Tehran’s regional ambitions, Riyadh and others have reopened channels with the Islamic Republic in recent years in a bid to de-escalate.

Trump has traditionally taken on a hard line on China and Iran, though he has signaled a desire to strike deals on both fronts in his second administration. As hints of his policies surface, the royals of the Arabian Peninsula are eager to avoid any major confrontations that could swiftly shatter the island of stability that has allowed them to rapidly progress.

Shdadi noted that that the price of failure to prevent such conflagrations could be high for the great powers as well, including the U.S.

“If the negotiations fail,” Shdadi said, “the United States may face major economic challenges, such as the possibility of the American economy entering a phase of inflation and then economic recession, especially with President Trump activating tariffs, which make it difficult to control global markets, and the increasing international trend towards reducing dependence on the dollar, which may increase pressure on Washington economically and geopolitically.”

As for Riyadh, Shdadi argued that Saudi Arabia could also recalibrate its strategy in the event that

“Neutrality and bringing viewpoints closer together is the most prominent role,” he said, “but Saudi Arabia has strategic relations with China, Russia and the European Union and may be more open, as the Kingdom is a major player capable of adapting to any changes in the international scene, and the period of President Biden was the greatest evidence of this