A new poll of the 2026 Florida governor’s race gave GOP Representative Byron Donalds a narrow lead over former Representative David Jolly, a former Republican running as a Democrat.
Newsweek reached out to the Jolly and Donalds campaigns for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Florida, once a battleground evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans, zoomed rightward over the past decade and is now seen as a reliably Republican state, backing President Donald Trump by double digits in last year’s elections. An influx of conservative retirees into the state, as well as Trump’s inroads with Hispanic and Latino voters, helped turn the state into a conservative stronghold.
But Democrats are hoping to make the state, home to more than 23 million residents, competitive once again in the 2026 midterms. They believe that Trump’s declining approval rating may bolster their chances in more conservative states. Historically, the president’s party loses seats in the midterms.
What to Know
The latest poll of the race gives Donalds a lead—but paints a picture of a more competitive race compared to 2022 or 2024, when Republicans dominated in the statewide elections. The poll was conducted by the James Madison Institute and surveyed 1,200 registered voters from February 13-16, 2026. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.77 percentage points.
In the general election matchup, Donalds led Jolly by five percentage points. Forty-one percent of respondents said they would vote for the Republican candidate, compared to 36 percent who said they would support Jolly. An additional 6 percent said they supported state Senator Jason Pizzo, a former Democrat running as an independent.
Still, 17 percent were undecided. Those voters who haven’t made up their mind could be critical in the eventual outcome of the race.
There are other candidates in the race that the poll did not test in a general election.
Republican candidates include Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins, former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner and businessman James Fishback. Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings is running in the Democratic primary.
The poll did find that Jolly led Demings by 8 points in the primary (31 percent to 23 percent), with 44 percent being undecided.
Donalds also led the GOP primary with 33 percent, compared to Collins’ 15 percent, Renner’s 9 percent and Fishback’s 3 percent, according to the poll.
Sixty-three percent of Republicans said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Trump, a potentially promising sign for Donalds, who has received the Trump endorsement.
Donalds’ adviser Brad Herold responded to the poll in a post to X. He shared a post he made in September that reads, “@ByronDonalds will be the fourth straight Governor of Florida that I have worked for and never once has the thought crossed my mind, ‘I wonder what JMI‘s polling says.’”
On Friday, he added that it is “still true today…”
Another new poll showed Donalds with a large lead in the GOP primary. The American Promise poll, first reported by Florida Politics, showed his support at 44 percent, compared to Fishback’s 5 percent, Collins’ 4 percent and Renner’s 2 percent. The news outlet did not report methodology on the poll.
How Competitive Is Florida Governor’s Race?
The Florida gubernatorial race is not seen as a top target for Democrats at this point.
Republicans are overwhelmingly favored to win the governor’s race in November, according to betting odds. Kalshi’s odds give Republicans an 85 percent chance, while Polymarket’s odds give them an 83 percent chance of victory.
Both forecasters, the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, classify the race as being safe or solid for Republicans.
What People Are Saying
Donalds’ chief strategist responded to the American Promise poll in a statement: “President Trump trusts Byron. The Radical Left hates Byron. And today’s poll shows yet again that Florida Republicans want Byron to be the next governor. That’s because Byron Donalds is the proven America First Conservative fighter who will protect Florida’s future by making our state safer and more affordable. Florida voters agree with President Trump that Byron Donalds will be a great governor.”
The James Madison Institute poll report reads: “President Trump’s influence is notable. When Floridians are polled about which candidate the President likely endorsed, only 29% believe he endorsed Donalds and 48% are unaware. Sixty three percent say an endorsement would make them more likely to support a candidate (36% much more, 27% somewhat), with 28% unaffected and 4% less likely. “
What Happens Next
Candidates will spend the coming months making their cases to voters to try to solidify support in the election. The primary is set to be held on August 18, 2026, according to the Florida Division of Elections.
