Donald Trump Gets October Boost as Flurry of Polls Gives Him the Edge
October 2, 2024
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Former President Donald Trump has taken the lead in a number of key battleground states ahead of November’s election, according to a series of polls released on Tuesday.
Several surveys put Trump ahead of Kamala Harris in the battleground states of Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia.
Polling analysis suggested Harris and Trump are practically neck and neck as the final full month of campaigning ahead of Election Day gets underway.
A study of recent polling by veteran analyst Nate Silver released on Tuesday put Harris ahead by 3.4 points, but found her chances of overall victory were only 55 percent due to the Electoral College system. On Wednesday, Trump became the favorite to win in November, according to bookmaker Betfair following the previous evening’s vice presidential debate between Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Ohio Senator JD Vance.
InsiderAdvantage polled 800 likely voters in each of Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia over September 29-30. The surveys found Trump had a 1-point lead over Harris in the states of Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina while the two rivals were tied at 48 percent in Georgia.
Trump led Harris by 49 percent to 48 percent in Arizona and Nevada, and 50 percent to 49 percent in North Carolina. The polls had a margin of error of plus or minus 3-3.7 points.
Quinnipiac University surveyed 942 likely voters in Georgia and 953 likely voters in North Carolina over September 25-29, with each poll having a sampling error of plus or minus 3.2 points.
In Georgia, the poll gave Trump a 6-point lead with 50 percent of the vote against 44 percent for Harris and 3 percent for other candidates.
North Carolina was tighter with Trump at 49 percent versus 47 for Harris and 2 percent for other candidates.
The Washington Post also polled 1,001 likely voters in North Carolina over September 25-29, finding Trump led by 50 percent against 48 although this was within the poll’s 3.5-point margin of error.
Former President Donald Trump speaks at a press conference on October 1, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Trump is leading Kamala Harris in the battleground states of Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia, according to recent… Former President Donald Trump speaks at a press conference on October 1, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Trump is leading Kamala Harris in the battleground states of Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia, according to recent polling.
Jim Vondruska/GETTY
Surveys conducted by New Emerson College Polling in Arizona and North Carolina both gave Trump a slight lead, though these were also within the margins of error of 3.2 and 3.3 points respectively.
In Arizona, New Emerson College found Trump had 50 percent support versus 47 for Harris, while in North Carolina the Republican candidate was at 49 percent against 48 percent for the current vice president. Both polls were conducted over September 27-28.
In better news for Harris, a Napolitan News poll put her 3 points ahead of Trump in the battleground state of Michigan, with 50 percent of the vote against his 47 percent. The poll of 789 likely voters was conducted over September 24-27 and came with a 3.5-point margin of error.
Newsweek contacted the Donald Trump and Kamala Harris presidential election campaigns for comment on Wednesday via email outside of regular office hours.
A recent analysis of 12 Pennsylvania polls by the RealClearPolitics website concluded Trump was ahead in the Keystone State by 0.2 points, 48.1 percent against 47.9 percent for Harris. On September 18, a similar RealClearPolitics analysis put Harris in the lead by 0.6 points.
On Monday, a survey of 2,122 U.S. adults, conducted for The Guardian, found Americans generally preferred Harris’ economic policies to Trump’s when presented with them in a blind test.
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