Donald Trump’s Support Among Swing Voters Eroding—Data

President Donald Trump’s online sentiment among swing voters has dropped to its lowest level since December, according to an analysis by Impact Social.

Why It Matters

Many swing voters have cited Trump’s handling of Russia as a key factor of negative sentiment towards him, as well as the ongoing federal layoffs, according to data analysis.

Since taking office, Trump has significantly shifted the U.S. approach to Russia, often speaking more favorably of the country—a stark contrast to the Biden administration, which provided diplomatic and military aid to Ukraine.

He has floated numerous foreign policy changes, from purchasing land, to taking ownership of other territories, to enacting steep tariffs and reshaping global trade.

What To Know

An analysis of 40,000 swing voters by Impact Social, calculated from February 24 to March 4, found that swing voters’ net sentiment toward Trump has dropped to its lowest point since December 6. It has fallen 12 points since then and four points since February 24, reaching -12.

Overall, 68 percent of swing voters are neutral towards Trump, 10 percent positive, and 22 percent negative, per Impact Social’s analysis.

“This decline is being driven by foreign policy concerns, with independents on both the left and right voicing discontent,” Impact Social said.

The firm found that within the “negative discussion” of Trump, 21 percent were unhappy with his apparent favoring of Russia and President Vladimir Putin, while 9 percent cited frustration over ongoing federal layoffs recommended by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

Among the “positive discussion” 17 percent were content with Trump’s handling of the Russia-Ukraine war and interaction with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Last Friday, Zelensky, Trump and Vice President JD Vance engaged in a fiery Oval Office exchange that strained U.S.-Ukrainian relations but drew positive reactions from the Kremlin.

Among other foreign policy initiatives, Trump has repeatedly called for Canada to join as the 51st state, advocated for U.S. control of the Panama Canal, pushed to purchase Greenland, implemented tariffs and suggested that the U.S. take ownership of Gaza and resettle Palestinians elsewhere. Most of these ambitious foreign policy stances have been rejected by the affected parties.

Earlier this week, on Tuesday, Trump gave a joint congressional address, which according to a poll by CNN, 69 percent of Americans had a positive reaction to the speech, while a CBS News and YouGov poll showed 76 percent approved of it.

What People Are Saying

Journalist Fareed Zakaria wrote in a Washington Post opinion article on Friday: “In a few short weeks, the Trump administration has effected a revolution in foreign policy. It has largely abandoned a long-standing democratic ally, Ukraine, whose security the United States has pledged to uphold since signing the Budapest Memorandum 30 years ago…These remarkable turnarounds are being noticed around the world and will result in a revolution in foreign policy everywhere…All these changes are gifts to Russia and China, whose goal has been to weaken America’s power and presence in the world.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote in an X, formerly Twitter, post on March 2: “Being a peacemaker is not a bad thing. We should be applauding and supporting @POTUS’s efforts to bring about peace.”

Harry Enten, CNN chief data analyst, wrote on X, formerly Twitter: “Trump’s overall net approval & on the economy are “historically awful… weak, weak, weak” going into a 1st address to Congress. He has the 2nd worst net approval rating (+1 pts) on record. Beating only himself (2017). His net approval on the economy (-4 pts) is the worst.”

What Happens Next

Ukrainian and U.S. officials are to meet in Saudi Arabia next week to discuss working toward ending the war with Russia. It is not known exactly when Trump will meet with Putin, although Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov has said that preparations are underway for such a meeting.