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Doubts about the EU’s Ukraine strategy


‘The victory of the Republicans in the USA requires a new European strategy in Ukraine,’ said Viktor Orbán in Bishkek on Wednesday. Hungary’s Prime Minister invited the presidents of the Turkic states to the next informal summit in Budapest in the first half of 2025.

Following the Republican victory in the presidential elections, European politicians must ask themselves whether Europe will be able to maintain military and financial support for Ukraine on its own. ‘I have serious doubts about this, which is why we need a new European strategy,’ Orbán immediately replied. The first steps could be taken on Thursday in Budapest, when the heads of state and government of the European Political Community (EPC) meet for their summit. The biggest diplomatic event in Hungary’s history will have to resolve the difficult issue of the €50bn giga-loan, which the EU and the USA want to finance jointly.

Thanks to Erdogan

The Hungarian Prime Minister still sees a ‘massive’ majority in the EU that wants to continue the war in Ukraine, ‘even though all military experts believe that the European strategy on the battlefield has long since failed’. When Hungary took over the presidency of the EU Council in July, Orbán dared to undertake a peace mission, for whose support he expressly thanked Turkish President Erdogan in Bishkek. The only result so far is that Europe has begun to discuss how to transform the war strategy into a peace strategy.

The Turkic states are unlikely to expect any better treatment than usual from the new EU Commission, which is expected to take up its duties on 1 December. ‘Brussels will probably continue to keep its distance,’ said the Hungarian Prime Minister, looking ahead. To counter this, the Turkic states should approach the EU more actively – Hungary would be happy to support initiatives within the EU to strengthen cooperation.

Deepened relations

On the subject of Hungary’s relations with the Turkic states, the Prime Minister emphasised two figures. For example, trade in this relationship exceeded 5 billion dollars for the first time last year and more than 5,000 young people from the Turkic states applied for scholarships at Hungarian universities for the first time. Hungary’s energy security is increasingly dependent on this group of states, thanks to natural gas supplies from Turkey and Azerbaijan as well as new oil production involving the MOL Group in Kazakhstan. Orbán stated in Bishkek that Hungary had started to provide 100 million dollars for the Turkic Investment Fund and hoped for reciprocal investments. The first major programme to reforest the Fergana Valley is underway at the new Budapest-based Institute for Drought Prevention in trilateral cooperation between Hungary, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.

Highest honour for Orbán

Orbán was awarded the highest honour of the Organisation of Turkic States in Bishkek. Since 2019, the order has been awarded once a year to individuals who have rendered outstanding services to the unity of the Turkic states and the preservation of their common cultural heritage. In his speech of thanks, the Prime Minister recalled the origins of the Magyars, who had migrated the furthest westwards of all peoples from the East. However, relations with the Turkic states should not be about the past, but should be filled with life. He firmly believed that a great future awaited the community of Turkic peoples.

 



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