Energy Prices Surge for Consumers Ahead of Polar Vortex

Extremely cold temperatures brought about by an Arctic polar vortex are set to send energy bills spinning this month, as much of the U.S. is expected to feel a chill in the first half of January, bringing demand for heating up dramatically.

The price of natural gas has already soared by 4 percent in the past week and by 14 percent in the past month, the Financial Times reported, as weeks of relatively mild weather conditions gave way to a sudden winter freeze. It’s expected to be a shock to the country, which could be facing its coldest January in more than a decade, according to AccuWeather.

Why It Matters

The Arctic polar vortex could have a dangerous, damaging impact on the Central, Southern and Eastern states expected to be hit by extremely cold temperatures, creating a big surge in demand for heating and sending energy prices up at a time when many Americans are still struggling with historically high prices.

According to a recent LendingTree study, more than a third of Americans (34.3 percent) had to cut back on or skipped necessary expenses like medicines to pay their utility bills at least once over the past 12 months. Nearly a quarter (23.4 percent) were simply unable to pay part or all of their energy bills. Another 22.8 percent said they kept their home at an unsafe or unhealthy temperature.

What To Know

Forecasters expect the worst of the cold front to hit the U.S. before mid-January, with parts of the North Central states reaching sub-zero temperatures over that period. Below-freezing point temperatures are possible as far as Florida and the Gulf Coast, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).

AccuWeather experts expect temperatures to “plunge to 30 to 40 degrees below the historical average from the Midwest to the interior Southeast for several days during the first to second full week” of the month.

“In the Southeast [Virginia, the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama and Florida], this January could end up being the coldest since January 2018, which was 4.3 F below the historical average,” AccuWeather Senior Director of Forecasting Operations Dan DePodwin said. “In an extreme scenario where the cold lingers past the middle of January, January 2025 could be the coldest since January 2014 in this region, which was 6 F colder than the historical average.”

Temperatures will already plunge significantly in parts of the U.S. this weekend. According to the NWS Prediction Center, “a winter storm is expected to begin impacting the Central Plains by Saturday night, with heavy snow and significant icing potential spreading eastward to the Mid-Atlantic by early next week,” as the agency wrote on X on Thursday.

Several risks come with the winter storms expected in January—including power grid issues and blackouts. According to Disaster Tech, a Washington-based crisis management platform, there’s potential for a multi-day power outage in parts of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana between January 5 and 6, as shown in a map shared by meteorologist Jason Shafer on X. The company estimated the likelihood of this scenario to be around 10 percent.

According to the U.S. Census, 40.8 percent of U.S. households use electricity for heating, while 46.8 percent use utility gas and only 0.3 percent use solar power.

Newsweek contacted Disaster Tech, Jason Shafer and the NWS for comment by email on Friday morning, outside of standard working hours.

What People Are Saying

The NWS Prediction Center said in a post on X on New Year’s Eve: “As we round out 2024 and head into 2025, above normal warmth across the eastern half of the U.S. will be quickly replaced by a series of Arctic outbreaks […] with the coldest air of the season set to take hold through next week.”

AccuWeather lead long-range expert Paul Pastelok said: “This could end up being the coldest January since 2011 for the U.S. as a whole.”

LendingTree chief credit analyst Matt Schulz said in a statement last month: “Even though inflation has moderated in recent months, life is still crazy-expensive, and that can make it hard to pay your bills. Lots of people have found themselves needing to make difficult decisions to keep the lights on. For some, that might mean cutting back on some expenses. For others, it might mean getting a side hustle or a second job.”

What’s Next

There’s still uncertainty about the severity of the cold air and winter storms likely to hit the U.S. this month, and what their impact on U.S. infrastructure and energy bills would be. But the extreme cold and winter storms certainly have the potential to produce a huge economic impact for millions of Americans.

According to Howard Plante, vice president of Procurement at Freedom Energy, any potential rise in energy prices linked to soaring demand in January would likely be short-lived and “drop based on the return of normal or average temperatures” when the polar vortex subsides.

Newsweek contacted Freedom Energy Logistics for comment by email on Friday morning.

Are you concerned about the polar vortex causing a surge in energy prices? Contact g.carbonaro@newsweek.com to share your worries.