The Buffalo Bills have been somewhat up-and-down this season, and on Sunday, it looked like they were on their way to their third loss in five games when they trailed late against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Playing in snowy conditions at home in Upstate New York, the Bills fell behind 28-18 with just under nine minutes to go in the fourth quarter. But quarterback Josh Allen had one touchdown pass and one rushing touchdown afterward, allowing them to secure a 39-34 victory. The win gave them a 9-4 record, putting them two games behind the 11-2 New England Patriots, who have shocked everyone by zooming to first place in the AFC East.
The Patriots, meanwhile, had their bye this week, and they’re currently on a monstrous 10-game winning streak. Their quarterback, Drake Maye, is playing like an MVP. The team’s success this season is even more impressive considering they don’t have a true No. 1 alpha wide receiver or Pro Bowl-level running back.
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Both teams will face off on Sunday, Dec. 14 in Massachusetts, and it is understandable if fans assume that the race for the AFC East title will come down to that one game. But ESPN’s Dan Graziano essentially said, “not so fast” in a new article. In the piece, he called such a sentiment an overreaction.
“The Bills lost to the Patriots in Buffalo earlier this season, so a Pats victory next week would effectively clinch the division for New England because Buffalo would be three games back with three to play and would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker,” Graziano wrote.
“… Next week sets up as a pretty fun showdown, as the Patriots look to muscle up and take back the division they used to own.
“Verdict: OVERREACTION”
Graziano gave some cold, hard analysis on why the fight for a first-place finish in the division will not be decided by the outgame of this game.
“Not to spoil the excitement with math, but the tiebreakers really favor the Patriots here, even if Buffalo goes in there and wins next week. With head-to-head being split in that scenario, the next tiebreaker would be division record. If Buffalo wins next week, its division record would be 3-2 and New England’s would be 3-1. Let’s assume Buffalo beats the [New York] Jets in Week 18 to finish 4-2 in the AFC East. The Patriots would then have to lose to both the Jets and the [Miami] Dolphins to fall behind in that tiebreaker.
“If they both end up with the same division record (let’s say, for the sake of argument, 4-2), the next tiebreaker is record against common opponents. Right now, the Patriots are 8-1 against teams the Bills also have played (with Baltimore, Miami and the Jets still to come), and the Bills are 9-3 against teams the Patriots have played (with the Cleveland Browns and Jets still to come).
“Let’s say the Bills run the table and finish 13-4 overall, 4-2 in the division and 11-3 in common-opponent games. They’d still need the Patriots to win no more than one of their final three games, all of which are against teams that currently have losing records.”
In other words, even if it wins on Dec. 14, Buffalo’s chances of winning the division don’t seem that great.
Buffalo seems to be a bit diminished compared to recent seasons. Last year, it went 13-4 and narrowly lost in the AFC Championship Game to the Kansas City Chiefs, who have been its personal Kryptonite in the playoffs over the last several years. While the Bills’ passing defense has improved compared to 2024, their run defense has gone from solid to one of the worst in the NFL.
Allen, last year’s MVP, has seen his interception rate rise dramatically this year — he has 10 through 13 games compared to six in 17 contests last year. While his pass completion percentage and passing yards per game have risen significantly this year, the rest of the team isn’t producing as much as it did in 2024 on both sides of the football.
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Make no mistake — the Dec. 14 game between Buffalo and New England should be considered must-see NFL football. But there is absolutely no certainty that the winner of that matchup will clinch the top spot in the AFC East.
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