Jets vs. Dolphins Betting Odds, Player Props, Best Bets: 0-3 Rivals Collide

In the first game of tonight’s Monday Night Football doubleheader, Justin Fields and the Jets (0-3) take on the Dolphins (0-3) in Miami.

The Fins are the slight betting favorites at home after opening the season with losses to the Colts, Patriots and Bills.

First-year Jets coach Aaron Glenn will have Justin Fields back under center after he missed Week 3 with a concussion. New York was blown out by Buffalo in Week 2, but it nearly upset Tampa Bay without Fields last Sunday, and it lost a thriller to Pittsburgh back in Week 1.

How To Watch Jets vs. Dolphins

• Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. EDT
• TV: ESPN

Jets vs. Dolphins Odds: Spread, ML, Total

Jets vs. Dolphins Betting News, Analysis

Miami is working with a makeshift secondary due to injuries, and it has allowed at least 30 points to each of its first three opponents.

The Dolphins offense, however, has looked better the last two weeks, putting up solid numbers against both New England and Buffalo in competitive losses.

One of the keys to tonight’s game will be the battle between the Jets’ running game and the Dolphins’ run D. Miami has already given up over 150 yards on the ground twice this season, and it allowed the Patriots’ best rushing performance of the season (29 carries for 122 yards).

It will be interesting to see whether Fields and the Jets can get going tonight. After gashing the Steelers for 182 rushing yards on 39 carries in Week 1, New York gained just 199 yards total on 44 carries the last two weeks.

Best Jets vs. Dolphins Player Prop Bets

Garrett Wilson o5.5 Receptions (-120 at FanDuel) — 1 unit

Wilson is clearly the top target in the passing game, regardless of who’s under center. In fact, his target share of just under 39 percent ranks second-highest in the NFL, behind only Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

With at least eight targets in all three games so far this year, Wilson should maintain a high weekly floor in terms of receptions.

Remember, in two matchups vs. Miami last year, he turned 15 targets into 11 total receptions for 165 yards. The Dolphins’ injury-ravaged secondary is vulnerable, and I’d be surprised if Fields didn’t target Wilson early and often to test corners Jack Jones and Rasul Douglas.

With that in mind, also consider a small play on Wilson (alt) 7+ total receptions at +154.

Braelon Allen Anytime Touchdown (+250 at FanDuel) — 0.5 units

So far this season, 15 teams have given up at least four rushing touchdowns. The Dolphins are the only one on that list that hasn’t already played four games.

So, it would be an understatement to call this a good matchup for Fields, Breece Hall and Braelon Allen.

While Hall has already racked up 38 rushing attempts and 13 targets (compared to just 14 carries and three targets for Allen), the latter strikes me as the better ATTD option, especially at +250.

First of all, the 235-pound Allen has logged four red zone rushing attempts, compared to just two for Hall. Keep in mind that Fields also has four red-zone rushing attempts (including three from inside the 10) despite missing Week 3. He’s tempting in his own right at +215, but coming off a concussion, he could see a reduced workload in the running game.

Allen has just four total touchdowns in 20 games a Jet over the last two years. But in addition to his four red-zone rushing attempts, he has been targeted twice inside the opposing 10-yard line in the last two weeks. That’s right, six of Allen’s 17 total carries/targets this year have come in the red zone.

The other reason to back Allen is that he’s coming off his busiest day of the year. He had six carries for 30 yards and two targets in last week’s loss to Tampa Bay. After producing 30 yards rushing and 17 receiving on those eight touches, don’t be surprised if his role increases tonight.

Also keep in mind that Hall has produced just 40 rushing yards on 19 attempts over the last two weeks. He has also had a limited impact as a receiver the last two weeks, converting nine total targets vs. Buffalo and Tampa Bay into just six catches for 40 yards.

Jets vs. Dolphins Prediction, Best Bets

Obviously, neither of these teams — who are among four across the entire league that are still seeking their first win — have been impressive so far.

But I’m intrigued by the Jets, who were just a couple of plays away from beating both the Steelers in Week 1 and the Buccaneers in Week 3.

It’s still hard to know exactly what to expect from Fields and the New York offense, as he’s played less than two full games. But he’s shown enough that I trust him to move the ball against Miami.

This banged-up D is bottom-five in several major statistical categories, including rushing yards allowed per game (145) and points allowed per game (32.3). It also enters tonight’s game as the second-worst defense in the league by EPA.

The Jets have been underwhelming in their own right defensively, recording a pressure on just 13 percent of opposing dropbacks (only the Panthers have been worse), while ranking eighth-worst by EPA.

Though neither of these offenses have been elite by any means, I expect both to face little resistance tonight. That makes the over the best bet.

I also like the Jets to cover in a close game. New York beat Miami 32-20 last year in Week 18 with Tyler Huntley at quarterback for the Dolphins, but the first meeting of the year went to overtime, with Miami winning 32-26.

• Over 44.5 (-102 at FanDuel) — 1.5 units
• Jets +3 (-118 at DraftKings — 0.5 units

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