Kamala Harris and Donald Trump ‘Dead Heat’ in Swing States: Poll
2 days ago
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Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in a “dead heat” in the swing states, according to a new poll.
A new poll conducted by Patriot Polling between September 1 and 3 shows that Trump is to flip Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, and keep North Carolina red, while Harris is to narrowly keep Michigan and Wisconsin blue. However, all the results are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The poll surveyed around 800 registered voters in each state.
The former president’s biggest lead is in North Carolina, where he is 2.5 points ahead of Harris among 804 registered voters, on 50 percent to the vice president’s 47.5 percent. Trump won the state in 2020 and 2016. He is also currently predicted to win the state by FiveThirtyEight’s forecast model.
He is also in the lead in Arizona and Pennsylvania. The poll shows that he is 1.6 points ahead in Arizona at 48.5 percent to Harris’ 46.9 percent. In Pennsylvania, which is most likely to be the tipping point state that will give the Electoral College winner their 270th vote, he is 1.1 points ahead, on 49 percent to Harris’ 47.9 percent. His lead is much smaller in Georgia and Nevada, at 0.6 points in the Peach State and 0.2 points in the Silver State. President Joe Biden won all four states in 2020. Trump had won Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia in 2016.
The poll showed that Harris had the lead in Michigan and Wisconsin—both of which the Democrats flipped blue in 2020 after Trump’s victories in 2016. Her lead was narrow, at 0.8 points in both Michigan and 0.2 points in Wisconsin.
A split image of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Harris and Trump are in a “dead heat” in several swing states. new polling shows. A split image of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Harris and Trump are in a “dead heat” in several swing states. new polling shows. Getty Images
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns via email for comment.
The poll’s results differ from those of FiveThirtyEight’s forecast model, which shows that the Democrats are predicted to secure victories in five of the seven swing states while Trump is predicted to win in Arizona and North Carolina
In addition, a recent survey conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies with The Telegraph showed that Trump would win four of the swing states, while Harris appeared set to gain Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Nationally, Harris is 3.1 points ahead of Trump, on 47.2 percent to his 44.1 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Although Harris is predicted to win the popular vote, some pollsters forecast that Trump will win the Electoral College.
According to pollster Nate Silver’s latest election forecast, as of Wednesday, Trump had a 58.2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, about 16 points higher than Harris’s 41.6 percent.
Patriot Polling also had Trump winning the Electoral College vote, despite Harris being ahead 1.5 points nationally in the popular vote. But not all pollsters have Harris losing the Electoral College vote in November. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast model showed that Harris would win with 285 electoral votes to Trump’s 253. RealClearPolitics also had Harris ahead in the Electoral College when toss-up states were removed.
As of Monday, six bookmakers put Trump ahead of Harris—Sky Bet, Paddy Power, William Hill, 888sport, Betfair and Unibet—though the two presidential candidates were tied with Bet365 and Ladbrokes.
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