Betting sites show Senator John Cornyn with an edge over Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton when the Republicans head to a runoff race in May to secure the GOP nomination for the state’s U.S. Senate seat.
Why It Matters
Paxton faced incumbent Cornyn in the Republican primary for Texas’s U.S. Senate seat on Tuesday, and neither candidate secured a majority of the vote.
The 2026 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary has become a national proxy battle over the GOP’s direction, and the result could signal the direction of the party in the state.
After the runoff primary election in May, either Paxton or Cornyn will go on to face Democratic nominee James Talarico in the state’s general election in November.
What To Know
Trump is expected to endorse Cornyn in the runoff race, according to The Atlantic, citing people familiar with the matter. The magazine also said its sources noted that Trump is prone to last-minute changes.
According to the prediction market website Polymarket, as of Thursday at 4:50 p.m. ET, Paxton has 15 percent compared to Cornyn’s 85 percent. On the trading website Kalshi, in a bet on who will win the Texas Republican Senate nomination, Cornyn has 85 percent versus Paxton’s 16 percent as of Thursday afternoon.
In a post to Truth Social on Wednesday, Trump spoke about the race, saying in part, “Both John and Ken ran great races, but not good enough. Now, this one, must be PERFECT!”
Trump continued later, “I will be making my Endorsement soon, and will be asking the candidate that I don’t Endorse to immediately DROP OUT OF THE RACE! Is that fair? We must win in November!!!”
What People Are Saying
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton posted on X on Thursday: “The Save America Act is the most important bill the U.S. Senate could ever pass, and I’m committed to helping President Trump get it done. I would consider dropping out of this race if Senate Leadership agrees to lift the filibuster and passes the SAVE America Act. John Cornyn is a coward who has refused to support abolishing the filibuster to pass this bill.”
Republican Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina on X on Wednesday: “This race was always headed to a runoff, and Senator @JohnCornyn is positioned to win it. Tonight proved it. As the campaign moves forward, voters will see a proven conservative who wins tough fights and delivers results for Texas.”
What Happens Next
The runoff Senate election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
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