Map Shows States At Risk of Tornados This Weekend

A significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected to pummel parts of the Midwest, South, and East this weekend, bringing the threat of damaging winds, large hail, and potentially strong tornadoes.

Why It Matters

The month of March traditionally marks the beginning of tornado season in the United States.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 4 out of 5 risk of severe weather for both Friday and Saturday, an uncommon designation that signals widespread severe storms are likely.

The threat level NOAA has issued is used sparingly, appearing in forecasts only 11 to 12 days per year, according to Weather Channel meteorologists.

What to Know

Friday

According to The Weather Channel, the Mississippi Valley and parts of the lower Ohio and Tennessee valleys, including St. Louis, Paducah, Memphis, and Jackson, Mississippi, are in the highest risk areas.

Severe storms will likely develop in the afternoon in western portions of the risk area before spreading eastward through the evening and overnight hours.

Tornadoes, including some rated EF2 or stronger, damaging winds up to 90 mph, and large hail would be possible, it said.

Saturday

For Saturday, the risk area is forecast to shift towards the Deep South, including Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle.

Thunderstorms may persist from the morning into the afternoon, The Weather Channel said, with the most dangerous weather expected to develop and spread eastward in the evening.

What People Are Saying

AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Pydynowski told Newsweek: “The greatest threat and highest risk areas for tornadoes late Friday into Friday night will occur across eastern Missouri, central/southern Illinois, northeastern Arkansas and western Tennessee and Kentucky. On Saturday into Saturday night, the greatest threat will shift eastward into south-central Tennessee, much of Alabama and Mississippi, eastern Louisiana and far northwestern Georgia. In total, this highest risk area would include parts of nine states.”

Pydynowski added: “In addition, there is a threat for nocturnal tornadoes both Friday night and Saturday night, which can be even more dangerous as they cannot be seen ahead of time and people tend to be sleeping which means they need to have their phones/weather radios programmed so they can receive loud, audible weather warnings at night which will wake them up.”

Internet meteorologist Ryan Hall said on X, Thursday: “Major tornado outbreak expected Saturday across LA, MS, and AL, with potential for widespread destruction. Multiple significant tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail likely. This is NOT your average spring storm system…”

NWS Storm Prediction Center said on X: “Key message update for Day 1 Friday. A Moderate Risk (level 4/5) is in place for the mid-Mississippi Valley. A severe-weather outbreak with widespread damaging winds, tornadoes and large hail is likely.”

What Happens Next

The NWS has warned that storms will move in “very rapidly,” and urges those in affected areas to take action when warnings are issued, rather than waiting to see or hear signs of a severe storm.