Map Shows States That Would Be Impacted Most if Canada Cuts Off Electricity

Several U.S. states will be impacted if Canadian officials decide to block energy exports in retaliation to President Donald Trump imposing a 25 percent tariff on Canadian goods on Tuesday.

Why It Matters

On Monday, Trump announced that tariffs imposed against Canada, Mexico and China would go into effect on Tuesday. In response to Trump’s tariffs, Ottawa and Beijing have announced plans to retaliate, sparking fears of a global trade war.

On Monday, Ontario Premier Doug Ford threatened to block energy exports to the U.S. “with a smile” if the tariffs imposed on Canadian goods went into effect.

What to Know

The fourth-largest energy commodity traded between Canada and the U.S. is electricity, preceded by crude oil, natural gas and petroleum, respectively. Energy products from Canada now pace a 10 percent tariff.

According to a report from the Canadian Energy Centre, Canada’s electricity exports to the U.S. were north of $54 billion between 2000 and 2019. According to the data, Vermont was considered the “top recipient” of electricity exports from Canada in 2019 at $585 million.

Joseph Webster, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center, told Newsweek that Canada electricity exports to the U.S. peaked in 2020 and have declined since. However, several cities still benefit significantly from Canadian electricity, including Buffalo, New York; Ogdensburg, New York; Pembina, North Dakota; Seattle, Washington; Great Falls, Montana; and Portland, Maine.

Those cities, particularly upstate New York, would be significantly impacted if Canadian leaders block energy exports to the U.S. If electricity exports are blocked with little warning, Webster said it could result in significant price increases for Americans.

On Monday, Ford said Canadian energy kept “the lights on for 1.5 million homes and manufacturing [facilities] in New York, in Michigan and in Minnesota.” In December, he also threatened to restrict energy exports to those three states.

In addition to New York, Michigan and Minnesota, states identified as importing the most electricity from Canada include North Dakota, New Hampshire, Maine, California, Vermont, Nevada and Arizona, according to a 2020 report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

What People Are Saying

Ford in comments made on Monday: “I don’t start a tariff war, but we’re going to win this tariff war. If they want to try to annihilate Ontario, I will do everything—including cut off their energy with a smile on my face, and I’m encouraging every other province to do the same.”

Ford added, “They rely on our energy. They need to feel the pain.”

Webster told Newsweek: “Doug Ford’s threat to restrict electricity exports to the U.S. would fall especially hard on Buffalo and upstate New York, like Rochester.”

He added: “It’s a relatively cold time of the year and this is peak electricity season for upstate New York, so the price impact at the local level could potentially be substantial. If electricity is cut with little warning, there will be severe impacts on prices and electricity volume.”

U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a report about energy trade between the U.S. and Canada: “Although the amount of electricity imported over the Canadian border is a small part of the overall U.S. power supply, the transmission connections linking Canada and the United States are an important component of the electricity markets in northern states.”

What Happens Next

It is unclear what retaliatory efforts will be imposed against the U.S. However, Trump threatened Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that if retaliatory tariffs are imposed on the U.S., the U.S. will impose a reciprocal tariff.