MLB Player Props: Best Bets for Saturday (July 27)

We did not have any luck yesterday with these predictions, but the beauty of baseball is that there is always going to be the next day. Weekends with MLB are great as you can always count on a full slate of games to bet on, which is the case today as well.

Play 1: Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+240) FanDuel

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros, 7:10 p.m. ET

This might surprise you, but this Ohtani fellow is pretty decent at crushing baseballs. He has a ridiculous four barrels in the last four games, with a combined eight HardHits in that same stretch of games. Yesterday alone, he had three separate HardHits, he just could not get one to go yard. He did hit one two games ago, though, so it is not as though he is on some sort of cold spell or anything like that. When Ohtani is the middle of a stretch like this where he is hitting the ball very hard, you want to keep betting on him, as he can go on streaks.

He has hit the second-most home runs on the year with 31. Ohtani is one of only two batters with 30-plus home runs, with the second-best ISO rate and barrel rate on the year as well. His ISO rate (.323) and barrel rate (20.3%) puts him in the “excellent” category of both stats, as defined by FanGraphs. He also has the second-best HardHit rate and the second-fastest average exit velocity in the MLB. So, yes, he is pretty decent. Here’s hoping he goes on another home run binge, starting today.

He has a very good matchup to do so, going up against Ronel Blanco of the Astros. Blanco is a righty and Ohtani crushes righties — his ISO rate of .200 against LHP skyrockets to .392 against RHP. Blanco has struggled to keep the ball in the yard all year, with a HR/9 of 1.33, the 16th-worst in MLB. Blanco allows a barrel rate of 9.6% (10th-highest) and a launch angle of 17.2 degrees (13th-highest), and he is also worse against left-handed hitters such as Ohtani. Of the 17 home runs Blanco has allowed, 10 have come against LHH, so let’s hope Ohtani mashes one for us tonight.

Play 2: Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+350) FanDuel

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox, 7:15 p.m. ET

We went with Soto yesterday and he did not come through for us. But he has still been insanely hot, and one could make the argument he has been the hottest or second-hottest hitter in baseball over the past week, so there are no concerns about going with him again today. He has hit three home runs, has the fourth-most HardHits in MLB, and a barrel rate of 26.1% over the past week. He has been excellent not only recently, but throughout the season, with the fifth-best ISO rate in MLB at .286 and the third-best barrel rate at 19.8%.

As for today, he has a great matchup against Kutter Crawford of the Red Sox. Crawford, like Blanco, has struggled to keep the ball in the yard this season, and especially recently. His last start alone he gave up a whopping five home runs, which is horribly bad, and this has been an issue all season for Crawford. Even if you take out his outlier previous start, his HR/9 in his last 14 starts is 1.56 — and that does not even include a start in which he gave up five home runs in five innings pitched. His HR/9 in his last 14 appearances jumps up to 2.00 if you do include his most recent start.

Crawford is also similar to Blanco in that he struggles more against left-handed hitters such as Soto. 11 of his 19 home runs allowed this season have come to LHH, with the biggest difference in his splits being his fly-ball rate, which increases 10%, from 43.1% against RHH to 53.1% against LHH. Crawford’s two most frequent pitches thrown are 4-seam fastballs and cutters, and Soto has a .468 ISO rate against 4-seamers and .308 against cutters, making this a great matchup for Soto across the board.

Play 3: Corey Seager to Hit a Home Run (+350) FanDuel

Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays, 3:07 p.m. ET

Seager has had an interesting season that is starting to come around. Coming off the World Series run, he started off the year brutally cold and unable to hit anything. He then went on an absurd eight-game stretch where he hit eight home runs in as many games at the end of May, and has mostly been good since then. He has an ISO rate of .261 in the month of July, which obviously does not include the end of May home-run binge, and it seems as though he is coming on recently.

He hit a home run a couple games ago, and in his last three games, he has seven combined HardHits. As for today, he has a matchup against Kevin Gausman, who is a good pitcher in the midst of a down year. Gausman is posting his worst HR/9 since the 2019 season, with career-worst numbers in barrel rate at 11.4%, launch angle at 15 degrees and average exit velocity at 90.2MPH. According to FanGraphs, his fastball has merely been average after being elite the previous two years, while the other three pitches he throws (splitter, slider & sinker) are all below-average.

This is a matchup that Seager has dominated over the past three season. In 14 at-bats against Gausman over the past three years, Seager has seven total hits, including one home run and two doubles. These two saw each other last September, and Seager went 3-for-3 against Gausman with one single, one double, and one home run. Let’s hope he stays hot in this one.

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