NCAAM Championship Week Player Props, Betting Picks for Wednesday, March 12

After Championship Week Tuesday that delivered one massive upset (St. Francis PA over Central Connecticut), another near-stuner (2-seed UNC-Wilmington survived 12-seed Delaware in the CAA Tournament Final, 76-72) and an absolute spectacle of a rock fight between Gonzaga and St. Mary’s, there’s no telling what’s in store in tonight’s games.

The good news for hoops fans is that the three do-or-die conference tournament finals taking place today start at 5 p.m. (all times ET), 7 p.m. and 11:30, allowing for full attention on each of tonight’s championship games:

• Southland Final: Lamar vs. McNeese (5 p.m., ESPN)
• Patriot League Final: Navy vs. American (7 p.m., CBSSN)
• Big Sky Final: Montana vs. Northern Colorado (11:30 p.m., ESPN2)

All five major tournaments — the Big 12, ACC, Big Ten, SEC and Big East — will be underway by tonight, but for this piece, we’re focusing on the best player props and betting picks for the Southland, Patriot League and Big Sky Finals.

Southland Final Preview: Props, Betting Picks

Lamar Cardinals vs. McNeese Cowboys Betting Odds

How to Watch Lamar vs. McNeese

TV: ESPN, 5 p.m.

The top two teams in the Southland Conference meet for the third time tonight.

McNeese (26-6, 19-1 Southland) swept the two regular-season meetings between these programs, but neither matchup was a blowout. The Cowboys beat Lamar 75-64 at home on January 18. They also won the rematch 68-66 on the road on March 1.

McNeese’s only loss in conference play came against Nicholls in early February, while Lamar (20-12, 14-6 Southland) finished well above .500 in the league after a 4-3 start in conference play, but never challenged McNeese for first place in the standings.

Best Lamar vs. McNeese Player Prop Bets

McNeese is a tough team for player prop bettors thanks to its balance. Five Cowboys players average at least 10 points per game, and two more (Quadir Copeland at 8.7 ppg and Joe Charles at 9 ppg) are also capable scorers for coach Will Wade.

With that in mind, we’re targeting top Lamar scorer Alexis Marmolejos, who averaged over 14 points per game this year on 40 percent shooting from the floor, including just over 38 percent from 3-point land.

Marmolejos averages 2.4 made 3-pointers per game, and he made at least three triples 15 times this year, including in both games vs. McNeese. In fact, given that Marmolejos scored a total of 38 points on a 10-for-16 shooting rom 3-point land against the Cowboys in two games this year, he’s tempting to make more four or more treys tonight. We’ll stick with him at plus-money to make three, though.

• Alexis Marmolejos 3+ 3-pointers (+102 at FanDuel) — 1 unit

Lamar vs. McNeese Prediction, Betting Pick

Last night’s games were a great reminder that conference tournament basketball is always tough to predict. Is it so unpredictable that we like a massive longshot like Lamar tonight? Not quite, but a close first half should shock absolutely no one.

Remember, Lamar lost to McNeese by just two points in the most recent meeting between these teams, and the Cardinals actually led that one at halftime, 35-31.

I’m not sure how to play the spread for this matchup, but Lamar +7.5 in the first half feels like a safe bet.

• 1H Spread — Lamar +7.5 (-115 at DraftKings) — 1 unit

Patriot League Final: Best Bets, Player Props

Navy Midshipmen vs. American University Eagles Odds

How to Watch Navy vs. American

TV: CBSSN, 7 p.m.

Tonight’s Patriot League Tournament Final marks the third meeting of the year between American (21-12, 13-5 Patriot League) and Navy (15-18, 10-8 Patriot League).

While American boasts the superior record both overall and in the Patriot League, Navy won both head-to-head matchups. The Midshipmen blew out the Eagles 81-58 at home in their conference opener before once again upsetting American on the road, 68-60 in the rematch on February 26.

Navy vs. American Best Player Prop Bets

All eyes tonight will be on Navy guard Austin Benigni, who’s among the top scorers in the country at 18.8 points per game. With an average of nearly eight free throws per game, Benigni is consitently able to get into the paint and draw fouls, and that is a big reason why he’s scored 78 total points in his last three games, an average of 26 ppg.

In two Patriot League Tournament games, Benigni has scored 54 points on just 26 field-goal attempts, and his performance in the semifinal was the best example you’ll see of why so there’s so much talk every March about a guard’s ability to draw fouls.

Against Bucknell in the Patriot League semis on Sunday, the 5-foot-11 Benigni was just 2-for-12 from the field (2-for-10 on 3-pointers) but nailed 20 of 22 free throws to finish with 24 points, and he added four rebounds and seven assists for good measure.

Trusting Benigni tonight against American, which held him to his two lowest-scoring scoring games of the year (11 points in the first meeting and 16 in the second), is risky, but this time of year, sticking with a hot hand for a team that is on a roll is effective, if not exactly outside-the-box. We also like this prop because of how hot Navy has been, with 80-plus points in four of its last five.

• Austin Benigni 20+ points (+130 at FD) — 1 unit

Navy vs. American Prediction, Betting Pick

When one team is favored over an opponent it has already lost to twice, betting on that third matchup between the teams is always difficult. Last night’s Gonzaga-St. Mary’s result showed that we should think twice before betting against a favorite in a scenario like this.

That being said, the fact Navy won this matchup twice without big nights from Benigni — at least by his standards — makes them live dogs that offer a ton of upside at +155 on the moneyline

• Navy moneyline (+155 at bet365) — 0.5 units

Big Sky Final Betting Preview: Best Props, Picks

Montana Grizzlies vs. Northern Colorado Bears Betting Odds

TV: ESPN2, 11:30 p.m.

On paper, it looks like this evening’s slate is saving the best game for last. Both these teams finished atop the Big Sky with 15-3 records in conference play. While Northern Colorado dominated the first matchup of the year at Montana, the Grizzlies won 86-78 in Greeley in the rematch on February 6.

Montana has only lost one game since January 18, with a 13-1 record in its last 14. Its only loss in that stretch came in overtime to Portland State on the road on March 1. In this tournament, the Grizzlies beat Northern Arizona 74-65 in the quarterfinals and drilled Idaho, 78-55, in the semis.

Northern Colorado also enters this game playing well, with a record of 8-1 in its last nine, including Big Sky Tournament wins over Weber State and Montana State to reach the final.

Montana vs. Northern Colorado Player Prop Bets

Tonight’s game features several talented scorers, including Money Williams (13.5 ppg) and Malik Moore (12.8 ppg) for Montana. Northern Colorado is led by Isaiah Hawthorne (17.5 ppg) and Langston Reynolds (15.9 ppg).

At 6-foot-8, Hawthorne is arguably the toughest of the four to guard. His points prop is tempting tonight after he scored 25, 16, 15 and 29 points in his last four games prior to a 9-point night in the Bears’ blowout win over Montana State in the Big Sky semifinals on Tuesday.

Hawthorne has been a consistent, high-floor guy all year, with 10 points or more in all but two games this year where he played heavy minutes. He also had at least 15 points in 25 of his 32 starts, making him great value to go over 16.5 points tonight against a team he scored exactly 17 on in both previous meetings this year.

• Isaiah Hawthorne Over 16.5 points (-110 at FD) — 0.5 units

Montana vs. Northern Colorado Prediction, Betting Pick

This feels like it will come down to the wire, making the spread a stay-away for me. I do think the winner will need 80 points, or close to it, making the Over at 146.5 the smart play in this contest.

• Over 146.5 (-110 at FD) — 1 unit

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