New Map Shows States Most Likely to Get Hit by Major Hurricane

Forecasters at Colorado State University (CSU) have updated their predictions for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season activity.

CSU’s Tropical Weather and Climate Research Team said in its release Tuesday that it anticipates 25 named storms this year, including 12 hurricanes and six major hurricanes. Forecasters said that they increased their overall predictions due “in part” to Hurricane Beryl, which made landfall in southern Texas Monday morning as a Category 1 storm.

Those predictions are a slight bump from the team’s last forecast report, released on June 11, which predicted 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) defines a major hurricane as any cyclone that is listed as a Category 3 or higher.

Tuesday’s report also provided an updated forecast on U.S. sites likely to be struck by a major hurricane this year. The CSU team said that the entire East Coast, including Florida, has a 31 percent chance of being impacted by a major storm. Along the Gulf Coast of the Florida Panhandle west to the city of Brownsville, Texas, forecasters said there is a 38 percent chance of at least one major storm hitting those states.

The probabilities are a slight decrease from CSU’s report in June, where East Coast states were given a 34 percent chance of enduring a Category 3 storm or higher. That same report put the Gulf Coast at a 42 percent chance of facing a major hurricane.

“Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to
make it an active season for them,” read the report. “Thorough preparations should be made for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”

The Tropical Weather and Climate Research Team said in its report that its predictions are “based on statistical and dynamical models which will fail in some years.” Forecasters also noted that predictions are not made about where storms may “specifically” hit the U.S. costal region.

“The probability of landfall for any one location along the coast is very low and
reflects the fact that, in any one season, most U.S. coastal areas will not feel the effects of a hurricane no matter how active the individual season is,” read the report.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted 2024 to be an above-average hurricane season. Agency forecasters predict there will be 17 to 25 named storms, with eight to 13 of those cyclones turning into hurricanes and four to seven becoming major hurricanes.

John Cangialosi, senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center, on July 1 inspects a satellite image of Hurricane Beryl, the first tropical cyclone of the 2024 season, at the center in Miami, Florida. Forecasters…

Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Beryl was the first hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. this year. The storm began forming on June 28 and reached Category 5 strength as it roared across the Caribbean islands, where at least 11 people died. As of Tuesday, The New York Times reported, the storm has killed at least seven people in Texas and eight in Louisiana.

Power is also out for millions of residents in both states. The violent storm reached wind speeds of up to 80 mph and led to heavy rains, flooding and property damage in Houston and the surrounding areas. The Times reported that several of the storm-related deaths were caused by trees toppled by the wind.

Beryl rapidly became a Category 4 storm after forming southeast of the Caribbean late last month. Hurricane expert Michael Lowry previously told Newsweek that the storm’s strength was “unheard of” this early in the hurricane season. According to Lowry, “the typical date of the first major hurricane is September 1, so Beryl is a full two months ahead of schedule.”