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Happy New Year, and thanks for reading throughout this newsletter’s first NFL regular season.
The Week 18 slate is light on playoff implications, but fortunately, there are three division title-deciding matchups worth checking out:
Carolina at Tampa Bay* (Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN)
Seattle at San Francisco (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN)
Baltimore at Pittsburgh (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock)
*The Panthers could lose on Saturday night and still win the NFC South if Atlanta beats New Orleans on Sunday, but it will still feel like an early playoff game, no matter what you think of the NFC South.
Each NFL Week 18 game is available to bet on at not only traditional sportsbooks, but also prediction markets including Kalshi. To start an account at Kalshi today and score a $10 welcome bonus after placing $100 in trades, sign up by clicking here or via the links below using promo code WEEK.
Seahawks vs. 49ers Betting Odds, Preview
The winner of Saturday night’s NFC West clash between San Francisco and Seattle will have homefield advantage in the NFC playoffs. (Photo by Amanda Loman/Getty Images)
Seahawks at 49ers Betting Odds
- Spread: SEA -1.5 (-115); SF +1.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: SEA -125; SF +105
- Total: 47.5 (over -112; under -108)
Seahawks at 49ers Early Thoughts, Prediction
The second matchup of the season between Seattle (13-3) and San Francisco (12-4) — who are both seeking their seventh consecutive W — will decide not only the NFC West, but who enters the NFC playoffs with homefield advantage.
San Francisco won the previous matchup between these teams back in Week 1 thanks to an incredible defensive performance. Seattle gained just 230 yards and 14 first downs in a 17-13 loss at home. Meanwhile, a Seahawks defense that has been dominant this year allowed the Niners to dominate time of possession, 37:58 to 22:02, despite two interceptions by Brock Purdy.
Following midseason injuries to stars Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, San Francisco has struggled defensively down the stretch, but Kyle Shanahan’s balanced offense enters Week 18 on fire. The Niners have scored a total of 90 points over the last two weeks, and they are on a six-game winning streak despite some of the worst injury luck in the NFL.
The Seahawks are the current Super Bowl favorites at both DraftKings (+500) and FanDuel (+550), while the 49ers have the 4th- or 5th-shortest Super Bowl odds, depending where you look.
Seattle enters Week 18 with 13 wins, tied for the most in the league, thanks to Mike Macdonald’s loaded defense, which is among the league’s best in yards per play allowed (4.6 y/p; 2nd), turnovers forced (24; tied-fifth) and expected points added (66.97; 1st).
The Seahawks have been up-and-down offensively, but Sam Darnold has put up Pro Bowl numbers despite throwing 14 interceptions, and wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the runaway favorite for NFL Offensive Player of the Year after racking up 113 catches for 1,709 yards and 10 touchdowns in 16 games.
Handicapping the battle between San Francisco’s elite offense and Seattle’s phenomenal defense is almost impossible, especially given that three of the 49ers’ top offensive weapons — LT Trent Williams, TE George Kittle and WR Ricky Pearsall — are questionable as of Friday afternoon.
The Seahawks will be without starting left tackle Charles Cross, and starting strong safety Coby Bryant is listed as doubtful, but they’re much closer to full strength than their opponent.
Right now, Seattle’s advantage on the injury front — as well as the number of big plays San Francisco gave up to Chicago last Sunday night — makes it hard for me to resist the Seahawks, even though Darnold’s sloppy recent play (four interceptions in the last four weeks) gives me pause.
I don’t recommend hammering any markets in a game as tough to predict as this one. That being said, if I I have to take a side on the spread and/or the total, I’ll go with Seattle -1.5 and Over 47.5.
Best bets:
- Seahawks -1.5 (best odds: -112 at FD)
- Over 47.5 (best odds: -112 at DK)
🔥Hot Take: Christian McCaffrey For MVP? (+30000 at FD)
You know you’re in for some 🔥🔥🔥 when it is phrased as a question, but hear me out …
Let me start by admitting that this take was inspired by a great point I heard ESPN’s Peter Schrager make on today’s episode of The Bill Simmons Podcast.
I’ve recently written at length about the 2025 NFL MVP race being a two-horse battle between Patriots QB Drake Maye and Rams QB Matthew Stafford. There might be a sneaky darkhorse entering Week 18, though, as Schrager shrewdly pointed out: 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey.
His MVP odds are currently the third-shortest behind Maye’s and Stafford’s at DraftKings (+10000). They’re even longer at FanDuel, which lists McCaffrey at +30000 to win MVP. FD sees him as a bigger longshot than not only Maye and Stafford, but also Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence. bet365, on the other hand, lists CMC’s MVP odds at +25000, behind Maye’s, Stafford’s, Lawrence’s, Josh Allen’s and Caleb Williams’.
Here’s why I think the Niners’ star is worth a sprinkle right now, though (especially at 300-to-1): Can you imagine a bigger closing argument for an MVP candidate than a huge night against the Seahawks’ lights-out defense?
McCaffrey certainly faces an uphill climb to become the first non-QB to win MVP since Vikings RB Adrian Peterson back in 2012. That being said, his numbers through 16 games compare favorably to not only Peterson’s during his MVP-winning season, but also Shaun Alexander and LaDainian Tomlinson’s MVP-winning stats back in ‘05 and ‘06, respectively.
There’s no denying that it would be shocking to see a running back to win MVP after averaging less than 4 yards per carry. McCaffrey’s staggering production as a receiver makes this at least a bit intriguing, though, doesn’t it?
With his work as a pass-catcher in considering, his total production could give him a strong case.
This isn’t going to be a real argument among voters unless he erupts for a huge game against one of the top defenses in the league, but if that happens, on national TV, to potentially help an injury-ravaged Niners squad clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC …
At minimum, this all adds up to more than enough to justify a sprinkle on one of the league’s biggest stars at +30000, doesn’t it?
One last thing: keep in mind that while McCaffrey will finish his season in a playoff-type atmosphere in primetime, neither Maye (against the Dolphins) nor Stafford (against the Cardinals) will have much of a stage to swing the narrative and sway voters on Sunday.
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