While Week 9 is light on clashes between playoff contenders, we do get one of the biggest regular-season games of the year: Chiefs at Bills.
More good news for anyone hoping for better theater after a slew of blowouts in Week 8: In nine of 14 matchups this weekend, the favorite is laying 7 points or fewer.
This weekend, the four teams with a bye week are the Browns, Jets, Eagles and Bucs.
Will this be another big week for the betting favorites, who went 11-2 ATS last week?
Early NFL ATS Picks YTD Record: 63-59
All odds below via DraftKings; all kickoff times EDT
Ravens (-7.5) at Dolphins — Thurs., 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video)
Pick: Ravens -7.5
Me: Let’s not overreact to one good performance by a team that is currently 2-5.
Also me: The Ravens are back!?
I’m (mostly) kidding here, but beating a solid Bears team — with Lamar Jackson on the sidelines — did show that the Ravens (2-5) aren’t done yet.
The defense has now put together back-to-back solid showings (remember, it was the lack of offense that killed Baltimore in its 17-3 loss to the Rams in Week 6). The Ravens are also running the ball much better in recent weeks, and Jackson’s return should once again make this one of the best running games in the league.
The Dolphins (2-6) are coming off of their best game of the season and showed a ton of fight in Atlanta last Sunday. Still, I like the Ravens to win big in Jackson’s first game since Week 4.
Panthers at Packers (-13.5) — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Packers -13.5
This line opened at Green Bay -11.5, and it wouldn’t be surprise me to see the Packers (5-1-1) laying 14 or more by kickoff on Sunday.
Barring a letdown in a tricky spot — the Packers took on Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers in primetime in Week 8, and they play the Eagles in a huge game on MNF in Week 10 — I’m expecting another long day for the Panthers (4-4), who have struggled on the road this season.
Bears (-2.5) at Bengals — Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Bears -2.5
The Bengals’ (3-5) passing game has been tough to stop the last few weeks. That could make Cincinnati a tempting home dog against the Bears (4-3), who are dealing with a number of injuries in the defensive backfield. But against a solid — albeit mistake-prone — Bears offense, I don’t quite see Cincinnati getting enough stops to pull the upset, or cover.
Colts (-3) at Steelers — Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Colts -3
At some point, it will probably backfire, but right now, taking the Colts (7-1) to cover every week feels like one of the best bets you can make.
The Steelers’ (4-3) aging defense is coming off back-to-back brutal showings, and I don’t see this unit keeping Jonathan Taylor and the high-scoring Colts in check. Right now, it’s hard to see anyone — much less the struggling Pitt D — slowing down the Colts offense, and I don’t like the Steelers’ chances of winning a shootout.
Vikings at Lions (-8.5) — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Lions -8.5
At first glance, this looks like an awful matchup for Minnesota (3-4). The Vikes are in a tailspin after last week’s blowout loss to the Chargers. Their inability to stop the run makes this an awful matchup for the Minnesota D. This doesn’t look like a good spot for second-year QB JJ McCarthy, either.
The Lions (5-2) are coming off an impressive 24-9 win over the Bucs, followed by a bye week. In Detroit, I’d take them to win by at least 10 points against a lot of teams right now, including their NFC North rivals. Even if Minnesota tackles Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill return to the lineup this Sunday, Detroit could win this game going away.
Chargers at Titans (-9.5) — Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Chargers -9.5
I’m going to pick an underdog or two to at least cover at some point this week, I think … So far, though, all I can see is more chalk after a dominant Week 8 showing by favorites across the league.
There was reason to believe the Titans’ (1-7) coaching change a couple of weeks ago would provide a spark, but Tennessee was outscored 14-0 after halftime in its Week 7 loss to the Patriots and 21-7 by the Colts in the second half last week.
The Chargers (5-3) were dominant with tackle Joe Alt back in the lineup vs. the Vikings last Thursday night. Another dominant win by Jim Harbaugh’s team this weekend shouldn’t surprise anyone.
Falcons at Patriots (-6) — Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Falcons +6
New England (6-2) and Atlanta (3-4) appear to be two teams moving in opposite directions right now.
While the Patriots have won five games in a row, including three by at least 18 points, the Falcons have not only lost two games in a row, but looked lost offensively in both of them.
I like Atlanta to at least keep this game close, though. The underdogs are expected to welcome back their top receiver (Drake London), quarterback (Michael Penix Jr.) and multiple DBs (Billy Bowman Jr. and Jessie Bates III) who missed at least part of last week’s head-scratching loss.
I don’t like Atlanta to win this one, but I do expect it to cover in a bounce-back performance by the Falcons offense.
49ers (-2.5) at Giants — Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: 49ers -2.5
In Niners-Giants, we’re picking between two teams that are both dealing with major injuries on offense. The 49ers (5-3) still have several key pieces missing, and it’s unclear whether starting QB Brock Purdy will be back for this game.
New York (2-6) is now without both Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo for the year. The Giants are also coming off another game where they offered little resistance against the run, as the Broncos (5.9 yards per carry on 24 carries) and Eagles (8.4 yards per carry on 33 carries) both dominated on the ground.
Is it just me, or is this a great spot for Christian McCaffrey? He is averaging a career-low 3.5 ypc, but with 24 carries for 129 yards and two touchdowns against Atlanta two weeks ago, CMC showed that if nothing else, he can still gash a weak run D.
Broncos at Texans (-1.5) — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Broncos +1.5
For the second week in a row, the Texans (3-4) are favored at home over a playoff contender. Houston is playing well enough on defense to justify the respect it’s getting from oddsmakers, but I’m not convinced this offense will be able to move the ball on the outstanding Broncos D.
Denver (6-2) will be without star corner Patrick Surtain II, but I still expect this defense to play well against a Texans offense that has struggled mightily against good defenses.
Saints at Rams (-14) — Sun., 4:05 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Rams -14
Taking such a heavy favorite is never a sure thing. The Rams (5-2), however, are in a great spot after shutting down the Ravens in Week 6 and the Jaguars in Week 7 prior to their Week 8 bye week.
The Saints (1-7) are giving rookie QB Tyler Shough his first start in a tough environment. The L.A. defense is No. 3 in yards per play allowed (4.7), No. 2 in sacks (26) and No. 8 in pressure rate (24.1 percent) despite blitzing less frequently than all but seven teams in the league.
A couple of double-digit favorites comfortably covered in Week 8 (including the Colts and the Chiefs). Expect the Rams to follow suit on Sunday.
Jaguars (-3.5) at Raiders — Sun., 4:05 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Raiders +3.5
Both the Jaguars (4-3) and the Raiders (2-5) are coming off of a much-needed bye week after ugly losses in Week 7. Jacksonville lost to the Rams 35-7 in London, while the Raiders suffered a 31-0 drubbing at the hands of the Chiefs.
In their last four games, the Raiders have alternated between nailbiters and blowout losses, with a 1-point loss to Chicago, a 34-point loss to the Colts and a 20-10 win over the Titans before the big loss to Kansas City.
Against a Jaguars team that has forced the second-most turnovers in the league (14), against my better judgment, I’m going to bank on Geno Smith and the Raiders finally taking care of the football and keeping this game close.
Chiefs (-2.5) at Bills — Sun., 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Chiefs -2.5
I’m aware of how the recent regular-season meetings in this rivalry have played out, but I nevertheless like Kansas City (5-3) right now. The biggest strength for the 5-2 Bills (James Cook and the running game) will be tested by a Chiefs run D that is getting better every week.
Case(s) in point: Opposing RB1s vs. Kansas City (Weeks 5-8):
- Travis Etienne (Week 5): 12 carries, 49 yards (4.1 ypc)
- Jahmyr Gibbs (Week 6): 17 carries, 65 yards (3.8 ypc)
- Ashton Jeanty (Week 7): 6 carries, 21 yards (3.5 ypc)
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Week 8): 9 carries, 25 yards (2.8 ypc)
So far this year, Buffalo is 1-2 in games where Cook rushes for less than 100 yards.
On the other side of the ball, the red-hot Chiefs offense has a favorable matchup against a Bills D that played well against Carolina last week but is vulnerable, especially now that DL Ed Oliver is out long-term.
Seahawks (-3) at Commanders — Sun., 8:20 p.m. (NBC)
Pick: Seahawks -3
If Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (hamstring) is out once again, I don’t see this game being close for more than a half.
And with Seattle (5-2) coming off of a bye and set to finally be healthy on defense (Seahawks corner Devon Witherspoon, safety Julian Love and linebacker Derick Hall could all be back for this game), I recommend taking the road favorites even if Daniels is back.
Under second-year head coach Mike Macdonald, the Seattle D has been impressive despite being at less than full strength. At 100 percent, the ‘Hawks be one of the best defensive teams in the league down the stretch.
Whether that comes to fruition or not, I think there’s a considerable gap between these teams right now — especially if Washington (3-5) continues to struggle on D after allowing at least 380 yards of total offense in back-to-back-to-back games.
Cardinals at Cowboys (-2.5) — Mon., 8:15 p.m. (ABC, ESPN)
Pick: Cowboys -2.5
Backing these teams — as a fan, a bettor or both — has been a roller coaster all season. The Cardinals (2-5) are on a five-game losing streak, but it’s worth noting that each of their losses during that stretch came by 4 points or fewer.
Coming off of a bye week, with Kyler Murray likely back under center, Arizona’s offense has a great opportunity to get right against a banged-up Dallas defense that just had its worst performance of the season in Denver.
I’m not necessarily sold on Murray leading the Cards to a road upset over the Cowboys (3-4), but I like Arizona’s underrated D to keep this one close.
I also like the Cardinals to at least cover given how much the Dallas defense — which will once again be without top corner Trevon Diggs (and could also be missing linebacker DeMarvion Overshown and safety Donovan Wilson) — has been struggling.
Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through any links in this article. See the sportsbook operator’s terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage.
