Poland Election: Ukraine Skeptic Candidate Swings Surprise Victory

Poland’s relationship with Ukraine and the U.S. will become a new focus of the country’s politics following the presidential election victory of right-wing nationalist Karol Nawrocki, a Warsaw-based political expert has told Newsweek.

Why It Matters

Sunday’s election was being closely watched as a signifier of Poland’s political direction including its approach to Polish-Ukrainian relations.

Nawrocki, who was supported by the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, is said to adopt a “Trumpian” style of politics and during the campaign he visited the Oval Office where he was pictured with the U.S. president. U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem had urged Poles to elect him.

What To Know

In Sunday’s run-off, Nawrocki defeated his liberal rival, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, according to Poland’s National Election Commission, in a surprise turnaround from the first exit poll which indicated that Trzaskowski was ahead.

Nawrocki got the support of President Donald Trump and he backs Warsaw’s support for Ukraine against Russian aggression, but does not want to see Kyiv join NATO nor the EU.

“Poland remains deeply divided,” Piotr Buras, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Newsweek on Monday.

After all the votes were counted, Poland’s electoral commission said Nawrocki had won 50.9 percent of the vote, compared with Trzaskowski’s 49.1 percent.

It was a switch from an exit poll at 9 p.m. Sunday that showed Trzaskowski ahead 50.3 percent to 49.7 percent, after which he declared a premature victory.

Trzaskowski’s campaign hinged on supporting Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s democratic reforms.

While Poland has a parliamentary system in which the president’s authority is largely ceremonial, the head of state can veto legislation proposed by lawmakers.

The president has a key role in foreign affairs and serves as commander-in-chief of the armed forces and Nawrocki is likely to continue to use his veto power to block Tusk’s pro-EU program.

The result is also likely also rejuvenate the conservative PiS opposition that lost power eighteen months ago as it eyes taking on Tusk’s coalition in 2027 parliamentary elections.

Buras, head of the ECFR’s Warsaw office, told Newsweek that Warsaw’s relations with the U.S. and Ukraine are likely to become subject to party political conflict.

Buras said Nawrocki and the PiS will play the Trump or American card in domestic politics, criticizing Tusk’s alleged abandoning of the trans-Atlantic partnership by siding with Poland’s European allies.

Nawrocki has struck an “anti-Ukrainian” sentiment on the campaign trail, reflecting his own convictions as the head of the Institute for National Remembrance which embraces nationalist historical narrative, he said.

Both Poland’s role as a promoter of a stronger EU defense policy and as an important actor in Ukraine’s EU and NATO integration process could be seriously hampered given the changed domestic political context, added Buras.

What People Are Saying

Piotr Buras, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations: “This election was a battle between two strong negative emotions—or ‘projects fear’ Between the rejection of the Tusk government and the fear of [a] PiS return to power.”

What Happens Next

Nawrocki will succeed Andrzej Duda, a conservative whose second and final term ends on August 6. Poland’s president serves for a five-year period and may be reelected once under the country’s constitution.

The U.S. has about 10,000 troops in Poland and Homeland Security Secretary Noem suggested military ties could deepen with Nawrocki as president.

But Buras said Poland will enter a period of conflict and instability, with a weakened government in terms of legitimacy and ability to act.

While a snap election is not likely this year, it could happen as early as 2026, Buras added.