Poland Exit Polls Show Donald Trump-Backed Candidate Narrowly Ahead

Exit polls for the Polish presidential election show populist Karol Nawrocki, who is also President Donald Trump’s preferred candidate, with a narrow lead of 51 percent to 49 percent.

Full results are expected later on Monday, with only 55 percent of the votes counted by early Monday morning local time.

Why It Matters

Right-wing parties in Europe experienced a surge in support over the past couple years, starting with Geert Wilders’s victory in the 2023 Dutch parliamentary election, and accelerated by major gains in the 2024 European parliamentary elections.

Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election marked a major advance for right-wing groups, which have grown emboldened and have sought to once again borrow from Trump’s playbook to secure further victories, including policies and ideological lines.

Sunday’s election will determine whether the country continues along Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-European path or shifts toward nationalist policies reminiscent of those championed by Trump. The president and prime minister must work together to pass legislation, making their alignment key.

Tusk on Friday claimed that Russian hackers had targeted the websites of ruling coalition parties, just days ahead of the election, according to the Kyiv Independent.

What To Know

Nawrocki, a conservative historian with no previous political experience and supported by the Law and Justice Party, went head-to-head with Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski.

Key issues include judicial reforms, abortion rights, and EU relations. Trzaskowski represents the pro-European Civic Coalition, while Nawrocki is aligned with nationalist and traditionalist views.

Nawrocki holds a slender lead over his rival in what experts have noted as a marked shift from an initial exit poll released just after voting ended at 9 p.m. on Sunday night.

In that poll, Trzaskowski had 50.3 percent of the vote, but the poll had a two percent margin of error, according to Politico.

Trzaskowski attempted to hold that poll as a small victory, telling supporters that they would soon hear the phrase “razor-thin” everywhere as results continued to trickle in from various districts.

“If everything is confirmed we will immediately get to work,” Trzawkowski said.

However, Nawrocki has remained defiant, telling his supporters that he will “win and save Poland!”

“We will win, that difference is really so tiny,” he said, as his supporters chanted “president of Poland.”

Nawrocki’s victory would serve as a sharp rebuke from voters about Tusk’s government by electing a president who could pose a major legislative hurdle to any policy aspirations the prime minister has.

What People Are Saying

Piotr Buras, ECFR: “Right wing and far-right candidates gathered as many as 54 percent of votes—this is the most surprising result.

“The campaign in the next two weeks will be very polarizing and brutal—a confrontation of two visions of Poland: pro-EU, liberal and progressive versus nationalist, Trumpist and conservative.”