Chances that the Atlantic hurricane season’s next tropical storm could form within the next seven days have risen, according to an updated forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Why It Matters
The NHC began tracking the disturbance, which has a moderate chance of strengthening into Tropical Storm Jerry, earlier this week. The disturbance originated as a tropical wave off the western coast of Africa and comes in the wake of twin hurricanes Imelda and Humberto, which have since dissolved.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30. AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek that AccuWeather anticipates hurricane season to ramp up during its last two months, after a lull in activity over the summer.
What To Know
The disturbance has a 50 percent chance of strengthening into a tropical storm within the next seven days. However, its chances of doing so in the next 48 hours remain near zero.
AccuWeather meteorologists are also tracking the system.
“A new tropical wave [has emerged] off the western coast of Africa,” DaSilva said in a report. “There is some disruptive wind shear in this part of the Atlantic, but the tropical wave may pass south of the shear in an area that could support development.”
Earlier this year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted between 13 and 19 named storms, with six to 10 of those strengthening into hurricanes.
In addition to the tropical wave, NHC meteorologists are also tracking a disturbance located much closer to Florida, which has a 10 percent chance of strengthening into a tropical storm within the next seven days.
“Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant development of the low, however the combination of the disturbance and the broader remnant boundary is still expected to produce heavy rainfall and possible flooding across portions of Florida and the Bahamas through the weekend,” the NHC said about that system.
What People Are Saying
NHC in an updated forecast about the tropical wave: “A tropical wave has just emerged off the coast of Africa. The wave is forecast to interact with another disturbance over the eastern tropical Atlantic, and then move westward after that. Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for some slow development of the system in a few days, and a tropical depression could form near or east of the Lesser Antilles by the end of next week.
NHC in an updated forecast about the disturbance closer to Florida: “A weak area of low pressure located near the central and northwestern Bahamas is producing disorganized shower activity. This system is expected to drift west-northwestward across the northwestern Bahamas and toward southern Florida during the next couple of days.”
What Happens Next
Meteorologists will continue tracking both disturbances in the Atlantic and issue updates as needed. People living in hurricane-prone areas are urged to remain vigilant throughout the rest of the season.
