Republicans Get Warning About Key Senate Race for Midterms
January 29, 2026
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Republicans received a new warning about the Georgia Senate race as Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted its forecast toward Democrats on Thursday.
Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff, first elected in 2021, is running for reelection in one of the nation’s closest battlegrounds. Republican candidates include Representative Buddy Carter, Representative Mike Collins and Derek Dooley, a former college football coach with strong ties to Governor Brian Kemp.
A Collins spokesperson responded to the update in a statement to Newsweek, saying that anyone who “fails to recognize” Georgia as Republicans’ most likely pickup opportunity “is disconnected from the reality on the ground.”
Newsweek reached out to the Ossoff, Carter and Dooley campaigns for comment.
Why It Matters
The party in the White House typically loses seats in the midterms, so Democrats are hopeful about winning GOP-held seats in November. But Georgia presents Republicans an opportunity to flip a seat in a state President Donald Trump carried by just over two points in the 2024 presidential race. If Republicans manage to flip Georgia, it would complicate Democrats’ already difficult path to a Senate majority.
What To Know
Sabato’s Crystal Ball announced that they are reclassifying the race from a pure toss-up to “Leans Democrat” on Thursday, a positive sign for Ossoff but a red flag for Republicans about their chances in the state. Still, analyst Kyle Kondik wrote in the update that Democrats could face some challenges.
The state still has “a little streak of red mixed with its purple,” and it’s “reasonable” to question if Ossoff can generate the level of Black voter turnout needed to win the state, he wrote, adding that it should still be a “Democratic-leaning year overall.”
“Ultimately if Democrats could win Georgia Senate races in a pair of 2020 runoffs as well as in the 2022 midterm, they should be favored to do so in a 2026 midterm, too, particularly when the GOP is not guaranteed to produce a very strong challenger. So this race moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic,” he wrote.
The race is likely to be decided by only a few points, but Ossoff “is likelier to end up on the winning side of that margin,” Kondik wrote.
Georgia’s political landscape has shifted dramatically in recent years, with Democrats winning both Senate seats in recent elections, but Republicans maintaining control of statewide offices and the legislature. Georgia was viewed as more conservative for most of the 21st century, but has emerged as a premier battleground. Former President Joe Biden narrowly won the state in 2020.
The race is further complicated by Georgia’s runoff system, which requires a candidate to win a majority to avoid a December runoff. The primary is scheduled for May 19, 2026, with a potential runoff in June, and the general election on November 3, 2026.
Kerwin Swint, a political scientist at Kennesaw State University, told Newsweek the shift was likely the “right call.”
“Although Jon Ossoff is vulnerable as a liberal Democrat in a center-right state, incumbent U.S. senators are very difficult to beat,” he said. “He also has a fundraising advantage going into the general election this fall.”
Democratic enthusiasm will benefit Ossoff, and Republicans will have to “keep up pace” in addition to keeping up with his fundraising, Swint said.
“The main issue of course will be the economy and cost of living, in addition to immigration and John Ossoff’s strong support for Joe Biden’s policies. It’s been a toss up, but moving it to Lean Democrat is the right call in my opinion, although there is plenty of opportunity for a Republican nominee to make advances this fall,” he said.
Jon Ossoff’s Chances of Reelection, According to Polls
Polling in Georgia has been sparse over recent months, but some polls from the fall and summer of 2025 showed Ossoff with a lead over his potential Republican challengers.
The latest public poll of the race was conducted by Quantus Insights. It found Ossoff with a lead over Carter (40 percent to 37 percent) and Dooley (42 percent to 35 percent). However, he was in a dead heat with Collins, with each receiving 38 percent in that survey.
It surveyed 624 registered and likely voters from September 9-12, 2025 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
Meanwhile, a TIPP Insights poll showed Ossoff with a three-point lead over Collins (44 percent to 41 percent), a four-point lead over Carter (44 percent to 40 percent) and a five-point lead over Dooley (44 percent to 39 percent).
It surveyed 2,956 registered voters from July 28-August 1, 2025 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.
Democrats Face Challenging 2026 Senate Map
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, meaning Democrats must flip three seats for a tie and four for an outright majority. Maine and North Carolina present Democrats their strongest opportunities to flip a seat. Maine backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about seven points, while North Carolina backed Trump by about three points.
In Maine, GOP Senator Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term as the only Republican senator in a state that Harris won in 2024. Despite the state’s Democratic lean, Collins, a centrist who has been more critical of the Trump administration than other Republicans, has won tough environments in the past.
Senator Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican, is not running for reelection. Former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley are notable candidates running to replace him.
If Democrats win each of those races, they would still be in the minority. That means they must turn to more conservative territory like Alaska to win. Democrats are also eyeing double-digit Trump states like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas as potential flip opportunities.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball also reclassified the Senate race in Florida, an increasingly conservative state, from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.
“To be clear, we don’t see this as a top-tier race—Florida has very clearly moved to the right even as some reversion seems likely this cycle, and much more than money is needed for Democrats to really put this race into play. But we thought it merited inclusion along with the other Likely Republican Senate races,” Kondik wrote.
What People Are Saying
A Collins campaign spokesperson told Newsweek, citing an article from May 2025: “Mr. Sabato has been among those hardest hit by TDS and does all he can to pontificate to boost Democrat fundraising emails. We agree with Newsweek’s May 22, 2025 assessment that Mike Collins is the biggest stumbling block for Jon Ossoff, as well as with the public surveys showing the two are tied or statistically tied. Anyone who fails to recognize the Georgia Senate race as the most likely pickup opportunity for Republicans is disconnected from the reality on the ground.”
Sabato’s Crystal Ball analyst Kyle Kondik wrote: “While Democrats have made progress over the course of the last year in positioning themselves to compete in enough Republican-held seats to win the majority, the GOP nonetheless remains favored to hold that majority.
The basic asset for Republicans, and problem for Democrats, is the structure of the Senate map. With Republicans having knocked out all of the remaining Democrats from states that voted for Donald Trump all three times he was on the ballot—a group of 25 states that accounts for half of all the Senate seats—Democrats either have to start winning in redder states again or, over time, essentially sweep all of the Senate seats in blue and purple states.
National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) regional press secretary Nick Puglia previously told Newsweek: “Democrats are the most unpopular they’ve ever been because candidates like Jon Ossoff have nothing to offer the American people except a promise of returning to open borders, wasted taxpayer spending that drove up prices, and hatred for President Trump. American families deserve better, and Senate Republicans will continue fighting for safer communities, lower costs and more money in your pocket.”
What Happens Next
Betting odd markets give Ossoff an advantage. Kalshi’s odds showed Ossoff with an 81 percent chance of victory, while Polymarket gave Democrats an 83 percent chance of carrying the state in this year’s Senate elections.
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