Polls give former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper a lead over ex-Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley in North Carolina’s 2026 race for the U.S. Senate.
Cooper won the Democratic nomination in the Tar Heel State’s primary election Tuesday, the Associated Press (AP) announced.
Newsweek reached out to the Cooper and Whatley campaigns for comment via email.
Why It Matters
The race is a battleground for the 2026 midterm elections as Republicans try to retain control of Congress. North Carolina backed President Donald Trump by only about 3 percentage points in 2024, making it a top target for Democrats in November. Cooper and Whatley secured their parties’ nominations in the primaries on Tuesday.
They are vying to replace retiring Republican Senator Thom Tillis, who opted not to run again in one of the swing states most evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans. The race will be closely watched—and bring in significant spending—over the coming months. Although the state has been elusive to Democrats in federal elections, Democrats believe a favorable national environment, as well as the candidacy of a popular former governor, puts them in a strong position to flip the seat.
Roy Cooper vs. Michael Whatley: Polls
Cooper and Whatley both easily won their primaries Tuesday night, with Cooper capturing 92 percent of the vote and Whatley taking 64.6 percent.
Cooper has built an early lead in polling.
The most recent public poll of the race from Change Research gave the former governor a 10-point lead over Whatley (50 percent to 40 percent), with 7 percent saying they’re unsure who they would support and 4 percent saying they would not vote. It surveyed 1,069 North Carolina voters from January 31 to February 4.
A TIPP Insights poll gave Cooper a 24-point lead (48 percent to 24 percent), with 27 percent of respondents still being undecided about who they would support. It surveyed 1,512 registered voters from January 12-15 and had a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.
Cooper also held a lead in a Harper Polling survey last year. Forty-seven percent of respondents said they would vote for him, compared with 39 percent for Whatley. That poll surveyed 600 North Carolina residents on November 9-10 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Steven Greene, professor of political science at North Carolina State University, told Newsweek that it’s hard to predict how competitive the general election will be but that in the current political climate, “it certainly seems likely that it will favor Democrats.”
“The question is just how strongly. Especially with a president as unpredictable as Trump, a lot can change between now and November,” he said.
He added that Cooper has “never lost an election in North Carolina.”
“If you created a Democratic politician in a lab to win North Carolina statewide races, it would probably look pretty similar to Roy Cooper,” Greene said. “He’s twice won statewide election at the same time Donald Trump has. He is a talented politician who avoids major mistakes and finds a way to be broadly acceptable to most all Democrat without alienating swing voters. He just needs to do what he’s always done.”
Whatley likely needs a favorable environment and to show he is a “talented campaigner” over the coming months, he said.
North Carolina: Elusive Senate Battleground for Democrats
Democrats have performed well in recent gubernatorial elections in the state but have fallen short in federal elections. The last time Democrats won a Senate seat there was in 2008, when President Barack Obama also carried it.
In 2022, Democrat Cheri Beasley lost to Republican Ted Budd, then a member of the House, by about 3 points. Tillis defeated Democrat Cal Cunningham by less than 2 points in 2020. In 2016, former GOP Senator Richard Burr defeated Democrat Deborah Ross, now a member of Congress, by nearly 6 points.
At the same time, Democrats have held a grip on the governor’s mansion. Democrat Josh Stein, who succeeded Cooper, won November’s race by nearly 15 points after Republican Mark Robinson faced a series of scandals on the campaign trail.
North Carolina Is Must-Win for Democrats in 2026
Democrats view North Carolina as a must win in the general election, as it is one of the few realistic flip opportunities. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, meaning Democrats must net three seats to tie Republicans and four for an outright majority.
Maine GOP Senator Susan Collins is viewed as the most vulnerable Republican. Trump lost Maine by about 7 points in 2024, and she’s the only Republican representing a state won by former Vice President Kamala Harris. Meanwhile, Democrats are defending seats in Trump-won Georgia and Michigan.
With no other Republicans up for reelection in single-digit Trump states, Democrats are forced to turn to more conservative territory. They are eyeing states where Trump won by double digits, such as Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, as potential flip opportunities. If Democrats fail to flip North Carolina, their already-difficult Senate math becomes much more challenging.
What People Are Saying
Jeff Allen, Roy Cooper’s campaign manager, told Newsweek: “Roy Cooper has spent his career putting North Carolinians first, while Washington DC insider Michael Whatley spent his delivering for billionaires and special interests at the expense of the middle class. A Democrat has not won statewide federal office in North Carolina in nearly two decades and we know this race will be very close, which is why we’re building a campaign to earn every vote and make sure North Carolinians know that Roy Cooper will fight for them in the Senate.”
The Change Research polling memo: “Donald Trump’s support has fallen sharply in North Carolina. He is deeply unpopular with Independents. A majority of all voters, 55%, have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 55% disapprove of the job he’s doing as President.”
Kyle Kondik of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, in a January 29 analysis of the race: “forced to choose now, we would favor former Gov. Roy Cooper (D), who is on his way to the Democratic nomination, against former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley, who is also favored to win his party’s nomination and has Trump’s backing (but he also faces some opposition in his primary, most notably from the very right-wing Michele Morrow, whose primary upset of then-state Superintendent of Public Instruction Catherine Truitt quite possibly cost Republicans the office in 2024). Cooper continues to lead scattered public polling against Whatley, although we’ve been curious about whether he’d cross 50%. He has not, even in some polls where he is far ahead (like a recent TIPP Insights poll, where Cooper led 48%-24% over Whatley). In a closely-divided, politically inelastic state like North Carolina, we’d like to see more before making Cooper a favorite in our ratings—we can easily imagine Cooper leading every poll of the race only for it to be decided by a point either way in a state that remains a little bit redder than Georgia.”
What Happens Next
Forecasters, including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, classify the race as a pure toss-up, giving no party a clear advantage. The general election is November 3.
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