Democrats in two blue-leaning states are eyeing plans to redraw their Congressional boundaries ahead of the 2026 midterm elections amid a growing redistricting arms race.
Why It Matters
Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms, and President Donald Trump’s approval rating has steadily slipped since his return to office in January, fueling Democratic optimism about their chances of flipping control of the House of Representatives.
But a redistricting race in a number of states has loomed over the upcoming midterms. Republicans in states like Texas, Missouri, North Carolina and Indiana have moved to redraw their lines to try and limit Republican losses. So far, California had been the only Democratic state to make significant moves to redistrict. But Democrats making moves to gain more favorable districts against Republicans in Colorado and Virginia could help boost their numbers next November.
What To Know
Colorado and Virginia are two states that lean Democratic, though both have shown some purple tendencies in the past. Democratic leaders in the two states have signaled a new willingness to redraw their Congressional maps in recent days following new efforts in North Carolina and Indiana led by Republicans.
Virginia Democrats are planning to redraw the state’s maps to boost Democratic advantages, reported The New York Times.
Currently Democrats hold five of the state’s 11 Congressional districts and view two of the GOP-held seats, those held by Representative Jen Kiggans and Rob Wittman, as being potentially competitive in next year’s midterms. Democrats could draw two or three new more favorable seats for Democrats in Virginia, the Times reported.
The effort comes just weeks before the highly visible gubernatorial race in the state. Democratic former Representative Abigail Spanberger has led polling against Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. Spanberger has not indicated she would support a redistricting effort.
Virginia voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris by just under 6 percentage points last November.
Meanwhile, Democratic Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser called on Democrats to redraw the state’s maps in an interview with KUSA, a Denver-based news station, published on Thursday.
“I’d like to see us, and we have to change our Constitution to do this, a break glass in case of emergency, if you see states breaking the norm doing mid-decade redistricting, give a mechanism so that we can match it,” he said.
Colorado backed Harris by about 11 percentage points last year. Democrats currently hold four of the state’s eight Congressional districts. Two seats are viewed as competitive—those held by GOP Representatives Gabe Evans and Jeff Hurd.
Kyle Saunders, professor of political science at Colorado State University, told Newsweek that it is “highly unlikely” if not “impossible” that Democrats could redraw the state’s boundaries by the midterms.
“His call is for a one-time constitutional amendment to be placed on the November 2026 ballot, which, if approved by voters, would only enable the Democrat-controlled legislature to redraw congressional maps for the 2028 elections (not 2026),” he said. “This is explicitly a post-2026 play, designed as a ‘break glass in case of emergency’ response to mid-decade redistricting by Republican states like Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, and proposed efforts in Texas, which are targeting gains for the 2026 midterms.”
There is no legal mechanism for changing the boundaries before 2030 without changing the state’s constitution, he said. Passing a change to the constitution would be challenging as it needs 55 percent approval, which Saunders said is a “high bar in a state where ballot measures often fail on procedural or ‘process purity’ concerns.”
It would also be a political “minefield” for Democrats, he said.
“Moderate Dems and independents could balk at ‘tit-for-tat’ gerrymandering, especially if it energizes GOP turnout in 2026. Gov. Jared Polis has been mum so far, but his majorities give him leverage to slow-roll if he sees electoral risk. Nationally, it could backfire if red states cry foul to the Supreme Court,” he said.
Democrats could fairly easily net two seats in Colorado if they overcome those legal hurdles, he said. They could go for a more aggressive map and draw eight Democratic-leaning districts, but that would risk backlash.
Redistricting Arms Race Update—Which States Have Redrawn Map?
So far, Missouri, North Carolina and Texas have passed maps that give the Republicans more favorable contests—five in Texas and one each in Missouri and North Carolina.
California voters are set to vote in November on a ballot measure that would replace the current map, drawn by an independent commission, with a new map that giving Democrats five more favorable seats. Polls suggest the measure is on track to past with majority support.
Indiana Republicans have also been working to redraw their map. That effort could either give Republicans one or two more favorable seats that are currently held by Democrats. Florida and Kansas have also indicated they could redraw maps to give Republicans more favorable seats.
What People Are Saying
Colorado Democratic Party Chair Shad Murib wrote in a statement: “Trump’s attacks on our democracy and working families can’t go unanswered. Democrats in Colorado and nationwide must explore every option to fight back, from emergency redistricting to ending corporate dark money’s influence in our state’s politics.”
Colorado Republican Party Chair Brita Horn wrote in a statement provided to Newsweek: “This is nothing more than Phil Weiser’s flailing campaign for Governor embracing a strategy of trying to appease the progressive-Democrat base and ignore the average Coloradan. In 2018, over 70% of Coloradans voted in favor of having independent commissions write our Congressional and State Legislative maps. Coloradans wanted to get partisan politics out of the redistricting process then, and they have no interest in seeing it return to our state”
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, wrote to X: “Two thirds of Virginians spoke loud and clear when they codified nonpartisan redistricting into our state Constitution five years ago. 12 days before our statewide elections, this is a shameless, reprehensible political power grab by Democrat lawmakers desperate for anything to distract from the disastrous Democrat Shutdown and Jay Jones’ demented comments and criminal investigation.”
Virginia Senator Mark Warner, a Democrat, wrote to X: “I’ve long supported nonpartisan redistricting and fair maps, but Donald Trump has spent months trying to rig the system instead of actually tackling rising costs for Americans. It’s no surprise that Democrats in places like Virginia would be thinking through appropriate ways to respond.”
What Happens Next
Intensifying redistricting battles loom over the midterms. Polls suggest Democrats have a lead over Republicans—but that advantage is smaller compared to this point in 2017, a year before the 2018 blue wave that saw Democrats pick up 41 seats in the House. The Cook Political Report gives Democrats an advantage in 202 seats and Republicans a lead in 216 seats.
