China is weaponizing tourism to punish Japan over Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent remarks on Taiwan.
With Chinese travelers reportedly canceling trips in large numbers, one economist predicts the resulting losses could shave as much as 0.29 percent off Japan’s gross domestic product.
Why It Matters
Japan has experienced record levels of tourism since the end of COVID-era lockdowns, with arrivals increasing by 48 percent last year. Neighboring China is one of the largest sources of visitors, accounting for 775,500 arrivals in September alone, or 23.7 percent of the total, according to Japan Tourism Agency data.
The loss of significant numbers of Chinese tourists—especially during the autumn season, when Japan’s fall foliage is a major draw—will likely hurt local industries reliant on tourism at a time of economic stagnation.
Newsweek has reached out to the Japan Tourism Agency and the Chinese Foreign Ministry by email for comment.
What To Know
China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism on Friday issued a travel alert for Japan, citing a deterioration in the “safety environment” for Chinese citizens. Several major Chinese airlines subsequently announced free refunds or ticket changes for travelers who had purchased flights to Japan.
Chinese airlines reported roughly 491,000 cancellations between Saturday and Monday of tickets for Japan, aviation analyst Li Hanming told the South China Morning Post.
Tourism-related stocks fell Monday on news of the reduction in Chinese spenders, with beauty company Shiseido dropping 11 percent and Tokyo Disney Resort operator Oriental Land down 5.68 percent.
The entertainment industry has also been affected. The China release of at least two Japanese films—Crayon Shin-chan the Movie: Super Hot! The Spicy Kasukabe Dancers and Cells At Work!—has been delayed, according to Chinese state broadcaster CCTV.
It is not the first time China has leveraged tourism as political pressure. A similar situation occurred in 2012 following Japan’s nationalization of the Senkaku Islands, known in China as the Diaoyu Islands, which are at the center of an ongoing territorial dispute in the East China Sea.
In an analysis published Tuesday, Nobuhide Kiuchi, executive economist at Nomura Research Institute, estimated that Japan’s economy could contract by 1.79 trillion yen ($11.5 billion), or 0.29 percent of 2024’s nominal GDP, if around 25 percent of tourists from China and Hong Kong scale back travel as they did following the Senkaku dispute. He based the calculation on current average spending per traveler.
Since the advisory, South Korea emerged over the weekend as the most popular outbound destination for Chinese travelers, according to the state media outlet Global Times, citing Beijing-based online travel agency Qunar.
During a parliamentary committee meeting earlier this month, Takaichi said a Chinese military blockade of Beijing-claimed Taiwan, aimed at denying access to U.S. forces, would constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan and justify a rare exception under the country’s pacifist constitution, allowing military intervention under the “collective defense” clause.
While past prime ministers have voiced concern over China’s military threats toward Taiwan, Takaichi’s remarks marked the strongest statement yet regarding the potential use of force. The comments sparked a firestorm among Chinese officials, with both countries summoning each other’s ambassador to lodge formal complaints.
What People Are Saying
Mao Ning, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, told reporters during a regular press conference Monday: “For some time, there has been an increase in crimes targeting Chinese nationals in Japan, as well as extreme and threatening remarks targeting China from Japanese right-wing provocateurs and internet users. China is highly concerned about this, and it’s fully justified for competent authorities to release the alerts.”
Yoshie Takao, owner of a travel agency in Fukuoka, Japan, told The Mainichi newspaper: “Government disputes are affecting private sector activities. It’s truly troubling, but there’s nothing we can do.”
What Happens Next
Takaichi has resisted China’s demand that she apologize and withdraw her comments on Taiwan. It remains to be seen whether the two countries will work out a compromise to ease tensions in time to cushion the blow to affected industries.
In an effort to reduce tensions, Tokyo dispatched its envoy for Asian and Oceanian affairs, Masaaki Kanai, to China for talks with his counterpart there, Liu Jinsong. During their meeting Tuesday, Kanai is expected to have conveyed that Japan’s policy with regard to China remains unchanged and to urge Beijing not to take further action that could damage bilateral ties, according to Japanese media.
