Who Will Win The Next Presidential Debate? We Asked ChatGPT
September 1, 2024
2,354
The next presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is scheduled for September 10, and with the election coming in less than 70 days, it has the potential to be a high-stakes moment in the campaign.
The last presidential debate between President Joe Biden and Trump proved to be one of the most consequential in U.S. history, with Biden’s poor performance becoming the catalyst for his declining approval and eventual decision to drop out.
As both campaign teams gear up for another debate in a very tight election, Newsweek asked the generative AI tool, ChatGPT, which candidate it thinks will win the head-to-head.
The prompt we used read: “Who do you think will win the next presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on the 2024 election campaign?
“Give reasons for your answer, and factor in the impact of both of their debate performances in the 2020 election debates, as well as Trump’s debate performance in 2024. When thinking about your answer, also consider who the debate host is, as well as the new mic policy.”
Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Getty
Who Does ChatGPT Think Will Win the Next Presidential Debate?
ChatGPT responded: “Predicting the outcome of a hypothetical future debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in the 2024 election campaign involves several considerations, including their past debate performances, potential changes in debate format and rules, and the broader political context.”
When summarizing the two candidates previous performances, the AI said that in her 2020 debate with Mike Pence, Kamala Harris was “noted for her calm demeanor, clear communication, and ability to connect with viewers on issues like healthcare, racial justice, and the pandemic.”
In contrast, when summarizing Trump, ChatGPT said: “Trump’s debate performances in 2020 against Joe Biden were characterized by a combative and aggressive style, frequently interrupting Biden and the moderators.
“His first debate performance was widely criticized for being too chaotic, which led to changes in debate rules, such as muting microphones to prevent interruptions.”
Additionally, the AI suggested that Harris would benefit from a more controlled conversation with strict rules, saying: “The moderator or debate host can significantly impact the debate’s tone and structure. A host who enforces rules strictly and ensures balanced speaking time can mitigate some of the advantages that a more aggressive debater might have.
“If the host favors a more structured debate, it might benefit Kamala Harris, who tends to excel in more controlled environments. Conversely, if the host allows for more free-flowing interaction, it might play into Trump’s strengths.”
Right, Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Desert Diamond Arena on August 23, 2024, in Glendale, Arizona. Left, Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris… Right, Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Desert Diamond Arena on August 23, 2024, in Glendale, Arizona. Left, Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks on the fourth and last day of the Democratic National Convention (DNC) at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois, on August 22, 2024.
AFP/Getty Images
What Are the Candidates’ 2024 Debate Strategies?
ChatGPT said that Kamala Harris “would likely focus on presenting a contrast to Trump’s style, emphasizing her ability to speak directly to policy issues and connect with diverse voter demographics. She might also use Trump’s past controversies and his debate style to frame him as less presidential or disruptive.
“Donald Trump might leverage his base’s strong support and focus on his perceived strengths, such as his ability to dominate the debate stage and drive his points home through repetition and assertiveness. He could also attempt to paint Harris as part of a Washington establishment that his base believes needs to be challenged.”
The AI did not say decisively who would win the debate, describing the question as “inherently subjective” and reliant on media narratives.
“Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have distinct debate styles that appeal to different segments of the electorate. The new mic policy and the choice of debate host could favor a more structured and policy-focused debate, potentially benefiting Harris.
“However, Trump’s ability to command the stage and appeal to his core supporters might still give him an edge with his base. Ultimately, the “winner” might be determined more by who can better connect with undecided voters and who can drive the post-debate narrative in their favor.”
Newsweek contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment.
Do you have a story we should be covering? Do you have any questions about the 2024 presidential election? Contact LiveNews@newsweek.com.
A legjobb élmény biztosítása érdekében olyan technológiákat használunk, mint a cookie-k az eszközadatok tárolására és/vagy eléréséhez. Ha beleegyezik ezekbe a technológiákba, akkor olyan adatokat dolgozhatunk fel ezen az oldalon, mint a böngészési viselkedés vagy az egyedi azonosítók. A hozzájárulás elmulasztása vagy visszavonása bizonyos funkciókat és funkciókat hátrányosan érinthet.
Functional
Always active
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
Preferences
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
Statistics
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
Marketing
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
