Iran war hits housing market as mortgage rates rise to 6% on inflation fears

Mortgage rates are edging up on Thursday amid renewed inflation fears tied to the war in Iran.

The average national rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6%, up modestly from 5.98% last week, the lowest since September 2022, according to new data from Freddie Mac. Home loan costs remain far lower than a year ago, when they topped 6.6%. 

Still, experts said even an incremental rise to 6% could deter some buyers. 

“Two hundredths of a percentage point is not making or breaking anyone’s ability to buy a home,” said Kate Wood, a lending expert at NerdWallet. “But psychologically… this feels huge.”

Inflation fears rattle bond market

Mortgage rates tend to move in tandem with the bond market, particularly the 10-year Treasury note. But the Iran war is driving up global oil prices, fanning concerns about rising inflation in the U.S. In turn, that is boosting bond yields as investors demand higher returns. 

While bonds are normally considered a safe investment, Wood said investors are likely shifting money to even more stable assets like money market funds amid heightened economic uncertainty.

Historically, fixed mortgage rates have run roughly one to two percentage points higher than Treasury yields, according to the Brookings Institution.

The 10-year Treasury note reached 4.14% on Thursday afternoon, up from 3.96% on February 27, the day before the U.S. and Israel began military operations against Iran.

Gas prices up 26 cents

Oil prices have jumped as crude shipments passing through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz stall, creating shortfalls in global supply. Patrick De Haan, a petroleum expert at GasBuddy, told CBS News on Thursday that the world is now losing access to around 20 million barrels of oil a day due to a slowdown in tanker traffic in the strait, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. 

U.S. gasoline prices have climbed 26 cents a gallon since last week, according to GasBuddy, which tracks fuel prices. As of Thursday, the average cost of a gallon of regular gas was $3.25, the highest level since April 2025.

Inflationary pressures carry implications beyond the bond market. Higher consumer prices could discourage the Federal Reserve from lowering its benchmark interest rate, or even spur it to raise rates. The central bank’s rate decisions do not directly impact mortgage rates, but do affect the broader lending environment.

Wood said mortgage rates could rise more in the coming weeks if the disruption in oil supplies lifts inflation. “I wouldn’t necessarily say we’re likely to see higher rates, but I certainly wouldn’t be surprised,” she said.