Hughes fire explodes north of Castaic, forcing evacuations

A new fire exploded Wednesday north of Castaic, forcing new evacuations in fire-weary Southern California.

The Hughes fire started near Lake Hughes Road and Castaic Reservoir Road, Angeles National Forest officials posted on X. Evacuations were ordered after 11 a.m. and the fire was listed at 100 acres, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection website.

Evacuations were ordered in and around Lake Castiac, extending toward Interstate 5 on the west and south of Sanberg to the north.

In San Diego County, a fire that broke out near Rancho Bernardo and grew to at least 7 acres triggered evacuations for nearby residences and businesses. At least one person has been injured, the San Diego Fire-Rescue Department posted on X. Forward progress on the fire was stopped hours later, authorities said.

But looking ahead, the weekend storm will bring “a very beneficial wetting rain,” but “it will not end the fire season,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Alex Tardy.

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Because the rain is expected to be light, the risk of debris flows in burned areas is low. There’s a chance a thunderstorm could emerge directly over a recently burned area — creating a risk of landslides — but it’s not likely, said Ryan Kittell, a meteorologist with the NWS.

Still, Los Angeles city and county officials have started preparing for the rain. Public works in the coming days will install barriers, remove debris and divert runoff from the stormwater system into the sewer system, where it can be treated. Crews are also clearing drains and roadways, placing sandbags to shore up vulnerable infrastructure and preparing debris basins for the incoming storm, officials said Wednesday.

The Palisades fire, which ignited more than two weeks ago, leveled a huge swath of Pacific Palisades burning more than 23,400 acres and destroying at least 6,662 structures, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. The blaze was 68% contained as of Wednesday morning.

The Eaton fire, which charred a devastating path through the Altadena and Pasadena areas, destroying 9,418 structures, was 91% contained as of Wednesday.

“Rains are in the forecast and the threat of mud and debris flow in our fire impacted communities is real,” Los Angeles County Supervisor Kathryn Barger said during a news conference Wednesday. “We have to be prepared.”

FEMA and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency are also working to remove debris from the fire zones, officials said. While some residents have made their way back to their communities in recent days, more than 14,000 people remain under evacuation orders in the fire zones.

For recently burned areas, Kittell said, the rain could serve as a practice run in preparing for risks that are likely to remain for the next one to two years, after which the risk of debris flows and other landslide risks is substantially lowered.

Recently burned areas are at risk of landslides when subjected to intense rain over a short amount of time. Hillsides are vulnerable to landslides after wildfires because the fires make the soils repellent to water, and instead of being absorbed, rain flows downhill and picks up rocks and debris.

A “landslide” is an all-encompassing term that can describe any movement of rock, dirt or debris downhill. There are various types of landslides, including a mudflow, in which water rushes down with only mud, and is generally less than 15 feet deep.

During a debris flow, water picks up not only mud as it rapidly flows downhill but also rocks, branches, trees and sometimes boulders. This is considered a type of shallow landslide.

Debris flows can be deadly. In January 2018, 23 people died and at least 130 homes were destroyed when a river of mud and rock flowed through coastal Montecito, which had been burned less than a month earlier in the Thomas fire.

Rainfall rates need to be at around half an inch per hour or more to start causing debris flows of significance, Kittell said. Rates that are lower — like a quarter of an inch per hour — are less significant, “maybe some muddy water moving over some roads,” he said.

While meteorologists say the risk of debris flows in the burn areas is low, it’s also very unlikely the rain will snuff out the fire season.

“If we get one more little dry spell, it’ll pretty much negate any benefit from this rain,” Kittell said.

That dry spell may be just around the corner. The longer-term outlook suggests that, on the heels of this storm, there could be more weeks of dry weather going into early February.

Forecasters are confident there will be some rain and mountain snow this weekend. They also expect precipitation to be light — probably less than half an inch for the three-day rain event, from Saturday to Monday.

The most likely forecast would bring as much as half an inch to San Diego, San Clemente and Covina; two-fifths of an inch to downtown Los Angeles and Long Beach; one-third of an inch to Anaheim, Redondo Beach and San Clemente; and one-quarter of an inch to Santa Clarita and Canoga Park.

If those totals are correct, they would snap a record dry streak for downtown Los Angeles. It’s been 262 days, and counting, since downtown L.A. last saw more than one-tenth of an inch of rain on a single day — that was May 5.

The previous record was 253 consecutive days, from Feb. 25 to Nov. 3, 2008.

Downtown L.A. has received almost no rain since the water year began Oct. 1. Only 0.16 of an inch of rain has fallen since then — one of the driest starts to the water year on record. That’s just 3% of the average rainfall for downtown at this point in the water year, which is 6.19 inches. For the entire water year, downtown L.A. averages 14.25 inches of rain.

Elsewhere across Southern California, this has been the driest start to the water year on record.

“We’ve never been in this territory before. We’ve never seen a mid-January with these numbers,” said weather service meteorologist Tardy. The lack of precipitation and the Santa Ana winds — five wind events this month alone — make for a brutal combination.

The forecast timing and totals of the upcoming rain event are still uncertain, Kittell said. Less rain or as much as an inch in some locations is possible. And it could rain at any point from Saturday through Monday, but the best chance is Saturday night into Sunday morning.

There is also a 10% to 20% chance of thunderstorms and, with it, the chance of isolated but brief, heavy rain. With a thunderstorm, “heavy downpours, with rates maybe approaching a half-inch per hour” are possible, Kittell said.

“The vast majority of areas will not see this kind of situation,” he added, but if there are thunderstorms, “most likely we’ll see a spot — or two or three — that do get conditions like this.”

“It is not an atmospheric river,” Tardy said. “It is a cold storm. That is good for our burn scars.”

Residents whose homes back up to charred hillsides can request the county assess their property and the condition of the slope and advise whether any mitigation needs to be done, said Mark Pestrella, the Los Angeles County Public Works director.

He emphasized that Angelenos in burn scarred areas should use caution during upcoming rain events.

“Let me be clear, if you live in an area and you’re in the home, and there is a slope behind your home that is burned, and it’s maybe 20 feet or more in height, and it is adjacent to the property in any direction, your best bet is not to be in that home when it rains,” Pestrella said.

Residents should also take care not to come into contact with any runoff, which could contain toxic materials, he said.

There is also a moderate risk of small hail across the region. Snow levels could fall to an elevation of 3,500 to 4,500 feet above sea level. Southern California’s ski resorts could get 10 inches of snow, according to the weather service.

In the meantime, red flag fire weather warnings — which began Monday morning across Southern California — will continue through much of Southern California through Thursday night. There is a chance that red flag warnings could be extended in the windiest areas through Friday.

A red flag warning is set to last through Thursday night for wide swaths of Southern California.

(National Weather Service)

Gusts earlier this week were quite strong. A wind gust reached 88 mph in the western San Gabriel Mountains on Monday morning, on the Magic Mountain Truck Trail. In the mountains east of San Diego, a wind gust of 102 mph was recorded at Sill Hill, nearing the all-time record of 105 mph recorded there on Feb. 26, 2020, according to the weather service.

There will be a lull in winds coming out of the northeast for much of Wednesday. But they’ll expand and strengthen Wednesday night through Thursday morning, and will start lessening Thursday night, Kittell said.

The air is forecast to be extremely dry, with relative humidities under 10% through Friday. The meteorologist warned that vegetation is extremely dry, raising the risk of fire if ignited.

“Even if there are areas without a lot of wind, the risk for fast fire growth and large fire — it’s very large,” Kittell said. “And put any wind on it, it just makes it worse.”

Peak gusts of 30 to 50 mph are expected Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night in Los Angeles and Ventura counties. There could be isolated gusts of 50 mph to 65 mph in the mountains and foothills.

Peak gusts could reach 30 mph in Oxnard and Anaheim, 33 mph in the western San Fernando Valley, 36 in Mira Mesa, 37 mph in Fillmore, 39 mph in Escondido, 40 mph in Thousand Oaks, 43 mph in Santa Clarita, 47 in Irvine, 54 mph in Ramona and 55 mph in Beaumont.